Can Macron win his "political gamble"? French National Assembly elections to be continued

The first round of voting for the French National Assembly election officially began at 8:00 a.m. local time on June 30. The latest data released by the French Ministry of the Interior showed that the far-right National Rally led the way, followed by the newly formed left-wing coalition "New Popular Front", and the ruling party coalition "Together" led by Macron ranked only third in votes.

Public opinion believes that French President Emmanuel Macron's "political gamble" of holding early National Assembly elections is likely to fail. Since the establishment of the Fifth Republic of France in 1958, the far-right party may gain a majority of seats in the National Assembly for the first time.

The European Parliament elections, which are held every five years, were held from June 6 to 9. French voters voted to elect 81 members of the European Parliament to represent France, and the ruling party received far less support than the far-right party. The strong rise of the far-right in this European Parliament election prompted Macron to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly on the evening of June 9, hold a new National Assembly election in advance, and hold two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7. It is worth mentioning that the current French parliament was elected in June 2022 and should have expired in 2027.

In this National Assembly election, more than 4,000 candidates from various political parties will compete for 577 seats. In the first round of voting, candidates who receive more than half of the votes will be directly elected; if no one receives more than half of the votes, the candidate who receives support from no less than 12.5% ​​of the registered voters in the constituency will enter the second round of voting, and the candidate with the highest number of votes will be elected. The elected candidate will serve a term of 5 years.

According to official data released by the French Ministry of the Interior on July 1, the far-right party National Rally led with 29.25% of the support, followed by the newly formed left-wing alliance "New Popular Front" with about 27.99% of the votes, and the ruling party coalition "Together" received about 20.04% of the votes, ranking third.

French media said that the turnout in this round was between 65.5% and 69.7%, the highest since 1988. Although there is still a week before the second round of voting, it is too early to speculate on the composition of the new National Assembly, but it is almost certain that the ruling coalition will lose its relative majority seats.

Macron recently explained the decision to dissolve parliament and hold early elections:

On the one hand, in the European Parliament elections, the majority of French people voted for extremism; on the other hand, in the National Assembly, the ruling party only has a relative majority of seats, and the reform plan is hindered by the opposition. The president's term of office is still three years away, and he will not run for president again. The purpose of making this important decision is to "let the French think clearly about their choice." "

The National Assembly election will not threaten the president's position, but it is closely related to the emergence of a new prime minister. France may see a "co-governance" situation where the president and prime minister come from different parties, and the new prime minister is likely to come from a far-right party.

French media interpreted Macron's "political gamble" as follows:

According to the National Rally's development momentum, the possibility of a far-right president in the future is gradually increasing. Even if the National Rally wins a majority of seats in the early National Assembly elections and wins the position of prime minister, the leader of this party with no experience in governing will continue to "fall", and the extreme reform measures of the far right will be frustrated everywhere. In this way, the French people will further recognize the far right and dispel their illusions before the 2027 presidential election. "

The French Constitution stipulates that the president has the right to dissolve parliament. French media pointed out that in the history of the Fifth Republic of France, there have been five precedents in which the president has dissolved the National Assembly to deal with political or social crises faced by the government. The president hopes to reshuffle the cards through new parliamentary elections in an attempt to give the ruling party a chance to gain an absolute majority in parliament.

According to a poll conducted by French polling company Elabe, 52% of French people support Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly. But the president's dissolution of parliament is also a "risky move", with both successful and failed precedents.

A successful example is that in 1962, the opposition in the National Assembly passed a motion to impeach the then Prime Minister Pompidou, so the then President Charles de Gaulle dissolved the National Assembly. In the re-election of the National Assembly, the ruling party led by Charles de Gaulle won and restored the legitimacy of the Pompidou government.

An example of failure is that in 1997, when the then President Chirac wanted to expand the number of seats when the ruling party had already won the majority, he announced the dissolution of the National Assembly. However, the results of the new National Assembly election showed that the French left-wing coalition led by the Socialist Party won the election, which forced the right-wing Chirac to start "co-governance" with the left-wing then Prime Minister Jospin.

△ Marine Le Pen and Jordan Baldeira

At present, the far-right National Rally is undoubtedly the biggest winner in the first round of voting. After the voting ended that day, amid the cheers of supporters, the leader of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, said:

Macron’s ruling camp was almost wiped out…”

Jordan Baldeira, president of the National Alliance, said:

The second round of voting on July 7 will be one of the most decisive votes in the history of the French Fifth Republic."

If the National Rally wins a majority of seats in the National Assembly, the far right will historically come to power in France. Whether it is a relative majority or an absolute majority, the 28-year-old Baldeira is expected to become the next French prime minister, ushering in the "co-governance era" of the centrists and the far right led by Macron.

Before the National Assembly election, many French media described it as "the French people are facing a historic choice" and "France is at a historical crossroads". What will be the impact of the shift in French politics? Will it affect the future political direction of Europe?

Stephen Zumsteig, director of the public opinion and social research department of the French polling organization Ipsos, said in an interview with CCTV reporters that Macron dissolved the National Assembly and held early parliamentary elections in order to reunite French voters who oppose extremism and support the concept of the republic. However, dissolving parliament is a very risky decision, and the impact of the National Assembly election will be far-reaching.

Cui Hongjian, professor at the Institute of Regional and Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University, believes that no matter what the result of the French National Assembly election will be in a week, the election itself has shown that the trend of accelerating the rightward shift of not only French politics but also the entire European politics has become increasingly obvious. If France is caught in an intensified internal political struggle for a long time, and the rise of extreme right-wing forces affects the internal and external policies of the French government, it will undoubtedly be a great challenge for decision-making at the EU level. It may lead to an unclear direction for the EU's future development, inefficient decision-making, and even a trend of regression in integration to a certain extent.

Faced with the current situation, Macron called on his supporters to hold a "broad rally" in the second round of voting to oppose the far-right National Rally after the results of the first round of voting came out. Agence France-Presse said that French Prime Minister Attal is likely to be forced to resign after the second round of voting. He warned that the far right is now standing at the "door of power." Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance, emphasized that "we have seven days to save France from disaster." With less than a month left before the opening of the 2024 Paris Olympics, whether Macron's "political gamble" can win and where France will go, the story is yet to be continued.