Today's data highlights: Offshore RMB falls below 7.3 yen to a new low; Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have all reduced down payments and interest rates
On May 17, the People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Bureau successively issued important notices, announcing a reduction in personal housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other major cities across the country followed suit.
On June 26, Beijing announced adjustments to the minimum down payment ratio and interest rate floor for commercial housing loans. The minimum down payment ratio for the first home was adjusted from 30% to 20%, and the interest rate floor for the first home loan with a term of more than five years was adjusted to 3.5%.
On May 27, Shanghai issued new real estate policies, including further optimizing housing purchase restriction policies, supporting the reasonable housing needs of families with many children, and optimizing housing credit policies. They will take effect on May 28, 2024.
In terms of optimizing housing credit policies, the lower limit of the interest rate for the first commercial personal housing loan is adjusted to no lower than the loan market benchmark rate of the corresponding period minus 45 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to no lower than 20%.
The lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the second home is adjusted to no lower than the loan market benchmark rate for the corresponding period minus 5 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to no lower than 35%; the Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan continue to implement differentiated policies, and the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the second home is adjusted to no lower than the loan market benchmark rate for the corresponding period minus 25 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to no lower than 30%.
On May 28, Guangzhou introduced new policies for the real estate market, including further optimizing housing purchase restriction policies, housing credit policies, and housing unit identification, which will be implemented from May 29, 2024. For households taking out loans to purchase their first commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans will be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the interest rate floor will be cancelled.
For households taking out loans to purchase a second commercial home, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans will be adjusted to no less than 25%, and the lower limit on interest rates will be removed.
In Guangzhou's non-purchase restricted areas, for households that own two or more houses and have paid off the corresponding house purchase loans, and apply for loans to purchase houses, banking financial institutions can prudently determine and apply for loans based on the borrower's solvency, credit status and other factors. Determine the down payment ratio and loan interest rate specifically; for households that own two or more houses and have outstanding home purchase loans, the issuance of commercial personal housing loans will be suspended.
In the restricted purchase areas of Guangzhou City, commercial personal housing loans will be suspended for resident households that own two or more homes.
In accordance with the Shenzhen Municipal Government's regulatory requirements, Shenzhen will lower the minimum down payment ratio and interest rate floor for personal housing loans starting from May 29.
Among them, the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans for the first home in Shenzhen was adjusted from 30% to 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans for the second home was adjusted from 40% to 30%. The lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the first home in Shenzhen was adjusted from LPR-10BP to LPR-45BP, and the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the second home was adjusted from LPR30BP to LPR-5BP.
Harmful substances were detected in water bodies in many places in Japan and residents’ blood tests were abnormal!
On June 26, after the levels of organic fluorine compounds in water and residents' blood exceeded the standard in many places in Japan recently, the Food Safety Committee of the Cabinet Office of Japan released a related assessment report for the first time on the 25th, saying that it "cannot be denied" that per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances are related to low birth weight in newborns and decreased immunity after vaccination.
Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances are difficult to degrade and will accumulate in the environment and human body, and are called "permanent chemicals". In 2023, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, an agency under the World Health Organization, listed one of the representative substances, perfluorooctanoic acid, as a carcinogen, and another representative substance, perfluorooctane sulfonic acid, as a possible carcinogen.
The committee believes that the daily intake of PFOA and PFOS by humans should not exceed 20 nanograms per kilogram of body weight respectively.
According to the report, the negative impact of these substances on human health is not fully understood at this stage, and the committee believes that there is "limited evidence" of their carcinogenicity. Experts point out that long-term and large-scale drinking of water contaminated with perfluorinated and polyfluorinated alkyl substances may affect reproductive health and children's growth and development, and even cause diseases such as breast cancer and prostate cancer.
The gains of many individual stocks exceeded 15%, and the A-share AI application theme sectors collectively exploded in the afternoon of June 26.
As of the close of the market on the 26th, Danghong Technology, Insai Group, Huichang Communication, Rongxin Culture Chinese Online and others hit their 20cm daily limit, and many stocks including Kunlun Wanwei rose by nearly 15%.
Industry insiders told China Business News that the driving factor behind the rise of the A-share AI sector is that the market expects that domestic large-model companies will accelerate their independent research and development due to changes in the generative artificial intelligence environment abroad. From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the progress of domestic large-model computing power in the short term is limited; and in the current economic cycle, most companies are less willing to explore and apply AI technology.
Kaiyuan Securities analyzed that the multimodal capabilities of large models at home and abroad, such as video generation and understanding of the physical world, are still continuing to improve, but this also suggests the risk that the commercialization of AI applications will not progress as expected.
Offshore RMB falls below 7.3 yen to a new low
As of 18:15 Beijing time on June 26, the USD/CNY exchange rate broke through 7.3, and the CNY hit a new low since November last year. The CNY has continued to weaken in the past two weeks. This happened against the backdrop of the resurgence of the strong dollar in the past week. Asian currencies were under pressure, and the yen fell below the 160 mark against the dollar on the 26th, hitting a new historical low.
Wang Ju, head of currency and interest rate strategy for Greater China at BNP Paribas, said that although the central bank still intends to maintain exchange rate stability, the renminbi will still face certain pressure in the third quarter due to the upcoming dividend season, tariff risks, and the large interest rate gap between China and the United States.
However, in the short term, traders are focusing on the PCE to be released this week, which is also the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator. If PCE declines as expected, it will ease pressure on Asian currencies.
Two subway companies earn over 10 billion yuan from selling houses. More and more subway companies start to use houses to support railways.
In 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in China hit a new low in the past decade, and the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by more than 15% year-on-year. As the real estate industry reshuffles, subway companies are starting to take part.
Recently, 31 subway companies have successively released their 2023 annual reports. According to statistics from the E-House Research Institute, among the subway companies that have released annual reports, 7 have announced real estate development revenues, among which Suzhou Metro, Beijing Investment Group, Chengdu Metro and Guangzhou Metro all saw a year-on-year growth of more than 40% in real estate development revenues in 2023, far exceeding the average level of the real estate industry.
Shenzhen Metro, which has the titles of "the king of subway companies' profits" and "the subway company best at side businesses", holds land reserves worth hundreds of billions of yuan. Although its real estate development revenue declined last year, it still reached 14.7 billion yuan, contributing more than 58% to its overall revenue.
In recent years, more and more subway companies have joined the ranks of "using housing to support rail". Jinan Metro has become one of the developers with the largest amount of undeveloped land in the local market, and Xiamen Metro TOD has set the goal of "exceeding 10 billion yuan" by 2024.
