Why "No One Can Afford to Lose"? The first "war of words" between the former and current presidents of the United States is about to begin

With less than five months to go until the U.S. presidential election, the incumbent President, Democrat Biden, and the former President, Republican Trump, will hold the first televised debate between candidates in nearly four years on the evening of June 27 local time.

Some public opinion pointed out that the two parties are evenly matched in the election, and the final victory "may be determined by a difference of one or two percentage points." Under this circumstance, this TV debate "may be the most important one in the United States in decades," and neither candidate can afford to lose.

The televised debate will be held at 9 p.m. local time on the 27th at CNN's Atlanta studio in Georgia. It will last 90 minutes, including two 3.5-minute advertising breaks, but candidates are not allowed to interact with their teams.

Biden and Trump agreed to stand for the entire debate. Neither of them could bring props or notes to the stage, with only pens, notebooks and a bottle of water on the podium. Their microphones were muted unless it was their turn to speak.

There will be no opening speeches and no audience at the debate. Each person will have two minutes to answer questions directly asked to them, and then one minute to make a rebuttal and respond to the rebuttal. Organizers said that the absence of an audience can reduce the drama and make more compact use of the debate time. Aaron Carr, a debate coach at the University of Michigan, said that without a live audience, the candidates may lack the motivation to attack further while making sharp remarks.

This is the first head-to-head confrontation between Biden and Trump in the 2024 campaign season, at least two months earlier than the first candidate TV debate held in the fall of previous years. Some commentators said that both sides agreed to the early debate, perhaps with the consideration of targeting the "early voting" group.

This is also the first time in American history that two presidents have stood side by side on the debate stage. Before this, the only time a former and current president of the United States competed was in 1892, when there was no systematic campaign, let alone a televised debate.

The televised debates between US presidential candidates began in 1960. Traditionally, it is the second most watched program in the United States, second only to the Super Bowl. In 2020, more than 73 million people watched the first debate between Trump and Biden on radio and television.

This year is no exception. Some people pointed out that although people have more and more ways to obtain information, TV debates are still a key opportunity for candidates to fully demonstrate their policy vision, and it is expected that tens of millions of Americans will still watch this year.

In addition to policy debates, TV debates are often defined by the candidates’ personalities, manners, and gaffes. For example, Gore’s exaggerated sigh, Bush’s impatient look at his watch, Nixon’s pale complexion and ill-fitting suit… Years later, these iconic moments still linger in the public memory.

The situation this year is both similar and different.

The similarity is that some interesting details will still attract attention, such as whether the candidates are energetic and how they treat each other.

"Biden and Trump are 81 and 78 years old respectively, and both face questions about their age and ability," said Elaine Cammack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

"Biden must avoid gaffes; Trump should try to act like a president and remain calm during any controversial exchanges," said Aaron Carr, a debate coach at the University of Michigan.

The difference is that at present, the election is evenly matched and the gap between the two parties is small. Supporters of both sides attach great importance to this debate, believing that it is an important moment in the 2024 campaign season, and may even be the most important debate in decades, which may have unprecedented impact.

According to data compiled by the U.S. website "Real Transparent Politics", as of June 25, Trump was leading Biden by an average of 1 percentage point in national polls and by an average of 3.2 percentage points in key "swing states."

Some American scholars pointed out that this year's election "may be decided by a margin of one or two percentage points." Against this background, televised debates will become an important tool to attract "swing" voters and break the deadlock, as neither candidate can afford to lose.

"American politics and society are deeply divided, and televised debates can only moderately sway voters' preferences. But this year's election results may depend on only a few votes in a few states, which means that any change in attitude among small groups could be crucial," said Lynn Vavrek, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

According to a number of recent polls, the economy is currently the issue that American voters are most concerned about, followed by immigration, public safety, abortion rights and other issues, which are also the focus of voters' attention. In addition, the state of American democracy and foreign policy also occupy a place in the public opinion field.

Biden has been preparing for the above issues at Camp David, the presidential resort in Maryland, for the past two weeks. A mock debate stage was set up at Camp David, and Biden's assistants divided into groups to sort out various questions for him, with possible answers for his reference. His personal lawyer, Bauer, also played Trump in the mock debate.

It is said that Biden's team has planned an "offensive route" for the president. He will attack Trump on issues such as abortion rights, finance and taxation, immigration, and health care, emphasizing that the latter incited violence and ran for election while "guilty", and is no longer fit to be president.

In contrast to Biden, Trump did not "retreat" for training and is still participating in campaign rallies and other activities. But according to sources, Trump is in close contact with Republican lawmakers and expert advisers, and plans to challenge Biden on issues such as inflation, immigration, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hunter Biden's illegal gun possession case, and advanced age during the debate.

The outside world has found that foreign policy and age are not prominent topics in previous debates, but they are particularly prominent this year and may have an impact on the future election landscape. Data shows that only 33% of Americans agree with Biden's policy on dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A Siena College poll in the United States showed that 73% of voters believe that "Biden is too old to be a qualified president."

Some American public opinion said that the United States is at a crossroads, internally divided by politics and culture, and externally dragged down by multiple crises. After the November election, the United States may take two completely different and irreversible paths. But how much change can be brought about by the TV debate is unknown.