Hot Topics Preview | An election comparable to the Trump-Biden showdown? France is at a crossroads
"A 'world election' comparable to Biden vs. Trump" - the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election will be announced on June 30. The unpredictable results may bring about earth-shaking changes in French politics and influence the future political landscape. Why is this election that has attracted great attention from all walks of life so important? Where does President Macron's confidence in making such a big bet come from? How will the final result affect Macron's path to power?
The French political system is a "mixed system" consisting of a president and a parliament. The National Assembly election has always been regarded as the second most important election after the presidential election. "It may be the most destructive since World War II - not only for France, but also for the European Union, the Atlantic Alliance and the existing post-war liberal world order." This is by no means alarmist. Given its status and influence in the European Union and the world, the French election has been compared to the US election by Western media. Foreign media pointed out that "in France, what hangs in the balance is not just the fate of a government or a leader - but also the fate of a political system."
The more important reason is that this is a political "big bet" made by Macron himself. After returning from the European Parliament elections earlier this month, he was determined to take this risky move. Only by dissolving the parliament and starting over again to "reshuffle" might there be a chance to win. Yan Xiaoxiao, an assistant researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that in the history of the French Fifth Republic, this was usually a means for the then president to get rid of a politically unfavorable situation. The current domestic political dilemma of Macron and the Renaissance Party is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, in the 2022 National Assembly elections, the Renaissance Party only won a simple majority of seats, not half. Therefore, the ruling party has been facing strong pressure in parliament, and his legislative proposals are easily vetoed by the opposition alliance, which has caused great resistance to the president's implementation of many policies and reform plans. Second, in the European Parliament elections some time ago, the Renaissance Party was defeated by the far-right National Union, which seriously affected the political prestige of the Renaissance Party. Obviously, Macron hopes to regain control of parliament through this election and curb the trend of the ruling party's declining political status.
But this move was not favored by the outside world from the beginning. The media generally believed that Macron might "bring trouble upon himself" and lose more than he gained. Past historical moments are still vivid in our minds: in the 1990s, the then French President Jacques Chirac, who was from the right wing, used the same trick, but in the end the left wing won and Chirac failed to get what he wanted, and French politics entered the era of "co-governance of the left and the right".
From the current perspective, Macron's ideals are full, but the reality is very skinny. Polls show that he is at a disadvantage and is in an awkward situation. The latest opinion polls show that the far-right National Rally will be expected to win with 33% support, the newly formed left-wing coalition New Popular Front will have 28% support, and the centrists led by Macron currently only 18% and rank third. This means that if the results are unfavorable, Macron's administration may be "lame".
However, due to the special system and many uncertainties of this election, it is difficult to accurately predict the results, and it is still unknown who will win in the end. According to the rules, the French National Assembly has 577 seats, and the term of office of members is 5 years. The election will be held in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, and the voters will directly elect them. The first round of voting is a fight between political parties, but the second round of voting may evolve into a showdown between the National Union and all other parties. Observers pointed out that in order to prevent the National Union candidate from winning, Macron may seek to form an alliance with traditional political parties to block the far right. Yan Xiaoxiao said that Macron's confidence in re-election comes from his belief that, first of all, the public's support for the far-right party in the European Parliament election is based on dissatisfaction with the ruling party. After venting their emotions, most French people will most likely return to rationality and will not continue to be emotional in domestic elections that are more related to their own interests. Macron judged that the support rate of the far-right party will drop significantly. Second, in Macron's propaganda, the far-right party is seen as a force that divides France and will have a disastrous impact on France after coming to power. The National Rally had previously asked Macron to dissolve parliament, and this re-election can be seen as Macron's positive response to the opposition. The image of Macron and the Renaissance Party fighting to the death with the National Rally for the interests of France and Europe will be shaped through the election, which will help attract centrist voters who hold center-right or center-left positions to Macron's camp.
Before the formal vote, the far-right National Rally, which is widely favored by all walks of life and far ahead in the polls, may not necessarily have the last laugh in the two-round showdown. The French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats. If a party wants to win an absolute majority, it needs more than half of the seats, that is, 289 seats. This number is not easy for the National Rally to win. Judging from the current political landscape of the French National Assembly, the left and the far right are in a state of conflict, and the situation of "left-right co-governance" may be difficult to reproduce. Yan Xiaoxiao said that one possible situation is that if the National Rally obtains an absolute majority, Macron will have to implement "left-right co-governance" with the prime minister elected by the National Rally, that is, the president will be responsible for national defense and diplomacy, and the prime minister will be responsible for domestic affairs such as economy and immigration. But what is more serious for the Macron government is that he is likely to face a situation where almost all legislative initiatives have to be difficult to advance in the National Assembly. The National Rally, which controls the National Assembly, can force Macron to resign in this way. Even if the National Rally does not obtain an absolute majority, even if it only wins a simple majority, the emergence of a suspended parliament will greatly slow down the efficiency of the government, and France's political ecology will become more divided. In short, due to the huge policy differences between the parties in many areas such as delayed retirement, immigration, EU budget, foreign policy, etc., if Macron's Renaissance Party fails to win an absolute majority in the election, France is likely to face a long-term political deadlock. It is no exaggeration to say that this National Assembly election will be a crossroads for France's future.
