Is the far-right party closer to power than ever before? ,In-depth | French parliamentary elections are coming Macron | Bardeira | In-depth | France

The first round of voting for the new French National Assembly election will be held on June 30. Current polls show that the far-right National Rally is expected to win first, while the centrist coalition of French President Emmanuel Macron will rank third. The possibility that France will usher in a far-right prime minister has attracted attention.

In fact, France held a National Assembly election in 2022. Based on the five-year term of office of members of parliament, the next election was originally scheduled for 2027.

However, the results of the European Parliament elections held earlier this month triggered an "earthquake" in French politics. As the ruling Ennahda Party received far fewer votes than the far-right National Rally, President Macron immediately announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of early elections for a new National Assembly, leaving the future of the National Assembly to be decided by 49 million voters.

Whether to continue to adhere to European integration and globalization with an open attitude, or to emphasize "French first" like the far-right parties, has become a choice facing the French.

The two rounds of voting are scheduled for June 30 and July 7 respectively. The campaign kicked off on June 17, with more than 4,000 candidates from various political parties competing for 577 seats.

From the perspective of political factions, this election is seen as a competition among the three major camps of left, center and right, namely the far-right party National Rally, the left-wing alliance "New Popular Front", and the centrist alliance "Together" where Macron is located.

It is worth mentioning that the "New Popular Front" is a newly formed alliance. Against the backdrop of the rise of the far right, the French Socialist Party, the Communist Party and other left-wing parties announced the establishment of the "New Popular Front" on June 14.

The alliance has also been supported by former French President François Hollande, who announced on June 15 that he would run in the Corrèze constituency as a candidate of the left-wing party, hoping that the left-wing parties would unite to resist the rise of the far right.

It is worth noting that the French National Assembly election will not threaten the president's position, but is closely related to the emergence of a new prime minister. Conventionally, the prime minister is usually a representative of the party that wins the majority of seats in the election.

Therefore, the campaign representatives sent by the three major camps this time are regarded as potential candidates for prime minister. They are National Rally Chairman Baldeira, current Prime Minister Attal, and Manuel Bompard, a member of the far-left party "Unbowed France".

Among them, 35-year-old Attal and 28-year-old Baldeira are relatively young and popular politicians in France.

After serving in several positions in Macron's government, Attal became the youngest prime minister in French history in January this year.

Baldera led the National Rally to great success in the European Parliament elections held earlier this month.

In comparison, the 38-year-old Bompard pales in popularity and leadership and was elected to the National Assembly in Marseille in 2022.

On June 25, the three representatives debated on the same stage, giving the outside world a glimpse into their positions and strengths. During the debate, Attal tried to defend his performance in office, Baldeira pushed for the National Rally's tough stance on immigration, crime and security, and Bompard pushed for the left's plan to lower the retirement age and increase taxes on the rich.

Consistent with the current mood in France and Europe, immigration was a major focus of the three-person debate, during which Bardella was grilled about his Italian family background. At the same time, Bardella said he would "take back control of immigration."

In addition, as a potential candidate for French Prime Minister, Baldera may challenge Macron in foreign affairs, which will attract attention. If the National Rally comes to power, France may change from a pillar of the European Union to a thorn in the side of the European Union, and France's position on the Ukrainian crisis may also change to a certain extent.

But as they continued to attack and interrupt each other, none of the three seemed to have any real skills. Baldera did not seem to fully respond to criticism that his party's platform lacked concrete content. Attal did not seem to give angry voters a reason to choose him to continue to govern. Bompard's performance showed that the left camp seemed to lack a strong leader.

A poll released by France's L'Echo on June 28 showed that the support rates for the National Rally, the New Popular Front and together were 37%, 28% and 20% respectively.

A poll released by the French Institute of Public Opinion Fejdoux on June 25 showed that the National Rally is expected to win 220 to 260 seats in the second round, while Together is expected to only retain 75 to 110 seats.

"We will win an absolute majority," former National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said on June 26, predicting that her "successor" Bardeira would become prime minister.

At this point, the eurosceptic, anti-immigration far-right party once led by Marine Le Pen is closer than ever to power.

The National Rally was formerly known as the National Front. Since its establishment in 1972, it has been wary and excluded by mainstream French society due to its "extremist" ideas and remarks.

After Le Pen took over, she proposed to rename the party "National Rally" in 2018. Since then, the party has begun to focus on economic and immigration issues, and its support rate has continued to rise.

Ye Jiang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies and consultant to the Shanghai European Studies Society, said that the rise of the National Rally and the decline of the centrist alliance "Together" are related to voters' dissatisfaction with Macron's performance in office.

In recent years, Europe has suffered from the impact of the new crown epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis. The already slow economic development has been made worse. Immigration, security and other issues have also become unprecedentedly severe. European voters' dissatisfaction with the ruling party and their desire for change have become increasingly strong.

In the National Assembly elections held in 2022, Macron's centrist coalition "Together" lost its absolute majority. Since then, the ruling party's reform plans have been facing huge resistance from the opposition in the National Assembly.

Ye Jiang also said that the rise of the National Alliance also seems to be related to its campaign strategy.

First of all, as issues such as immigration and security have become increasingly prominent in recent years, the National Rally has seized on these topics that the French are most concerned about, proposing tightening immigration policies, strict border checks, restricting the flow of immigrants within the EU, and reforming the Macron government's pension system.

Secondly, "some of the National Rally's policies reflect a trend of change from the extreme right to the center," said Ye Jiang. For example, Baldera recently announced the measures he would take if he was elected prime minister, and no longer mentioned the party's previous slogans such as "exit the euro zone, exit the EU".

According to current polls, the National Rally is expected to become the largest party in the National Assembly, which would be the first time since the establishment of the French Fifth Republic in 1958.

At the same time, the possibility of France welcoming a far-right prime minister is becoming increasingly greater. Moreover, in the remaining three years of Macron's term, Baldeira, whose positions are quite different from Macron, may form a "co-governance" situation with Macron, a rare situation in history that has attracted attention.

But the National Alliance seems unable to reach the 289 seats required to win more than half of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, and can only obtain a relative majority. Ye Jiang pointed out that the result may not be clear until the second round of voting.

First, the French election process is rather special. In each of France's 577 constituencies, one member of the National Assembly is elected directly by voters in the constituency. Candidates who receive more than half of the votes in the first round of voting are elected, but this is relatively rare.

More often, a candidate who does not receive half of the votes but receives support from more than 12.5% ​​of registered voters in the constituency advances to a second round of voting, where the candidate with the highest number of votes is elected.

Secondly, unlike the situation in 2022 when the far-left party "France Unbowed" participated in the National Assembly elections, this time the left-wing parties will "band together" to run in elections, and the number of seats they win may increase, while weakening the momentum of the National Rally.

"At the moment, it seems unlikely that one party will win an absolute majority," said Ye Jiang.

However, even if Baldeira becomes the French prime minister, Macron may have expected it. Because Baldeira and the National Rally, who lack experience in governing, may keep stumbling, and the radical reform measures of the far right will be frustrated everywhere. In this way, the French people will lose their illusions about him before the 2027 presidential election.

Ye Jiang noticed that Baldeira recently made it clear to the media that if the National Alliance fails to win an "absolute majority" of seats in parliament in the election, he will refuse to serve as prime minister.

Some analysts said that this move was to "put pressure" on voters in order to win an absolute majority. Ye Jiang said that Baldera may also be aware of the severe challenges after becoming prime minister and not take on the "hot potato".

"The election manifesto is one thing, and actually taking office is another," said Ye Jiang. Although the National Alliance currently seems to have won voter support with its grassroots populist advocacy, it is still unclear whether its policy proposals can be successfully implemented. In comparison, Attar's performance in office has been relatively stable.

Other possibilities include Macron's camp trying to unite with the left-wing coalition to put forward a candidate acceptable to both sides as prime minister.

The political situation in France has become more complicated as there are still various possibilities for who will become the prime minister.

However, Ye Jiang said that the results of the European Parliament elections are a microcosm. Judging from the current situation, France may also turn to the center-right, that is, conservative but not extreme.

"Whether the relevant forces will merge as the French far right moves towards the center remains to be seen," said Ye Jiang. At the same time, French politics will still be pulled by the left. On June 15, hundreds of thousands of French people took to the streets at the call of major trade unions and left-wing parties to oppose the rise of the National Rally.

Ye Jiang also said that in France, foreign affairs are led by the president, so it is expected that France's foreign policy will not undergo major changes, but domestic affairs may be influenced to a certain extent by the prime minister. As was the case after the 2022 National Assembly election, if the ruling party fails to gain an absolute majority, it will affect its future policy direction and efficiency.