Does the far right hear the "prelude to victory"? The first round of French parliamentary elections ends: Macron is punished

On June 30th local time, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election ended. The far-right party National Rally took the lead with 34% of the votes, the left-wing alliance "New Popular Front" ranked second with 28.1% of the votes, and the ruling party alliance "Together" ranked third with 20.3% of the votes.

Public opinion believes that after this "blitzkrieg" of parliamentary elections, French President Macron's promise to "clarify the political landscape" has not been achieved, and the triangle relationship between the left, center and right camps is more uncertain than ever. Whether France will have its first far-right government since World War II will depend on the second round of voting on July 7.

France has a total of 577 legislative constituencies, corresponding to 577 seats in the National Assembly, which are decided by 49.5 million voters across the country through two rounds of voting. In the first round of voting, candidates who receive more than half of the votes can be directly elected; otherwise, all candidates who receive at least 12.5% ​​of the votes will enter the second round of voting, and the candidate with the highest number of votes will be elected for a term of five years.

The last French National Assembly election was held in 2022, so there was no need to distract attention from it before 2027. However, Macron's centrist camp was hit hard by the far-right parties in last month's European Parliament elections, and Macron immediately announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections to "clarify the political landscape of France."

This is the first early election in France since 1997, and is seen by the outside world as a political gamble. Macron may have thought that the National Rally would be isolated by most voters because of its hardline stance on immigration and history of anti-Semitism, and that the left-wing parties would be divided, and the ruling coalition would have a chance to regain its prestige. However, Macron, who has been in power for seven years, made a wrong calculation.

In contrast to the last election in 2022, the National Rally almost doubled its vote share from 18% to 34% in this round of voting, far exceeding the ruling party coalition's vote share of just over 20%. In the northwestern French constituency, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen won directly in the first round of voting with more than 58% of the votes. Across the country, 39 of the 73 members of parliament directly elected that day were from the National Rally.

Le Pen told her supporters that night that the National Rally had swept the Macron camp and that the French people had shown their determination to "open a new political chapter." Macron issued a statement overnight, calling on the public to block the National Rally in the second round of voting.

French public opinion believes that June 30 may go down in history as the "prelude to victory" of the far right. Macron, who had set off a political storm in 2017, "blew up" his own retreat. In the seven years since he took office, although he has achieved many achievements, including a significant reduction in unemployment, he has become out of touch with most people. In the eyes of the French people, what they need most is not an experienced and financially responsible government, but someone who understands their struggles and can resonate with them on issues such as prices, immigration, and public security.

Compared with the turnout of about 47% in the first round of voting in the last election, this election aroused greater enthusiasm among French voters, with a turnout of about 67.5%, the highest since 1997.

With high voter turnout, more candidates have crossed the threshold to enter the second round of voting. Data shows that there are currently about 250 to 300 constituencies across the country that will see a three-way runoff between the left, center and right, a record high. In the last election in 2022, only eight constituencies across the country became the battlefield for a three-way runoff.

For a long time, in order to block the National Rally, French center-left and center-right politicians have usually formed a united front, that is, the third-ranked candidate voluntarily withdraws from the competition.

Now, the left-wing coalition and the centrist ruling party alliance have shown a gesture of joining forces. The left-wing coalition said that if a candidate ranks third in the constituency, it will withdraw from the election to support other candidates who oppose the extreme right. The centrist alliance also said that some candidates will withdraw before the final election. However, the negotiation time left for both parties is limited. According to the rules, all candidates must confirm their qualifications before Tuesday night.

Some public opinion pointed out that it is still unknown whether the united front of the left and the center can work. Firstly, the triangle relationship between the left, center and right camps is more complicated than ever before, and many candidates may not listen to the advice of party leaders to withdraw from the election; secondly, there has long been a rift between the left and the center. Macron's ally, former Prime Minister Philippe, called on voters not to vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a member of the left coalition and leader of the Indomitable France Party, because "we disagree with them on fundamental principles."

With nearly a week to go until the second round of voting on July 7, it is generally believed that the National Alliance will gain ground and the ruling coalition will lose its relative majority. However, there are still many possibilities regarding the specific distribution of seats in the National Assembly.

The first scenario is that the National Rally wins an absolute majority, with more than 289 seats, and the 28-year-old National Rally President Baldeira will become the next prime minister. This will be the first far-right government since the founding of the French Republic in 1958. Macron's power will be greatly restricted, and he will have to form a "co-governance" model with the opposition prime minister. Macron's previous major policies may be unsustainable, and he will have a hard time in the remaining three years of his term.

The second scenario is that the National Rally only wins a relative majority, but less than 289 seats; the Left Alliance becomes the second largest group in parliament. According to Baldera's previous promise, he will refuse to serve as prime minister. In this case, the Left Alliance has the opportunity to try to form a minority government, and Macron may also seek to form a party alliance with the Left Alliance and nominate a prime minister acceptable to both parties.

The third possibility is that the three major camps of the far right, the center, and the left do not have enough seats to govern alone and cannot reach an agreement on forming a coalition government. The operation of the French government may be paralyzed, and the Supreme Administrative Court may rule that a caretaker government should manage basic daily affairs.

Some French public opinion said that the future political situation is still unclear, but a historic turmoil has already arrived. The French Republic is suffering from the impact and has become more fragmented, hostile, and radical...