May we provide military aid to Ukraine?, South Korean President's Sudden Visit to Ukraine | Zelensky's Sudden Visit to Ukraine | Yoon Seok yeol | South Korea

On the 15th local time, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol visited the Ukrainian capital Kiev and held talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yin Xiyue stated that South Korea will expand its aid scale and provide more military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine. However, he did not mention plans to provide assistance with weapons of destruction to Ukraine. Does Yin Xiyue's trip mean that South Korea will change its stance and provide weapons support to Ukraine? Analysis suggests that this still needs to be observed. South Korea is facing enormous pressure on the issue of providing military aid to Ukraine.

No mention of military aid plan

Recently, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol has been making frequent diplomatic efforts.

From July 11th to 12th local time, Yin Xiyue attended the NATO summit held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, and held meetings with leaders from 31 NATO countries, Sweden, the European Union, and Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Subsequently, Yin Xiyue visited Poland and met with Polish President Duda, stating that assisting Ukraine in reconstruction would become a new platform for South Korean Polish cooperation. On the 15th, Yin Xiyue made a surprise visit to Ukraine and held talks with Zelensky.

According to Yonhap News Agency, on the same day, Yin Xiyue and his wife Jin Jianxi visited the city of Bucha in the northwest of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, as well as the city of Irping, which was heavily damaged by artillery fire. This is Yin Xiyue's first visit to Russia-Ukraine conflict.

At 11:10 am that day, Yin Xiyue held a meeting with Zelensky in Kiev, which lasted for about an hour. Subsequently, both sides issued a joint statement.

Yin Xiyue said that the current situation in Ukraine reminds him of South Korea more than 70 years ago. He promised to increase aid to Ukraine from $100 million last year to $150 million this year. He also stated that South Korea will establish the "Yin Xiyue Zelensky Scholarship" to help Ukrainian international students study in South Korea with peace of mind.

Regarding military supplies assistance, Yoon Seok yeol also stated that South Korea will increase the scale of assistance this year on the basis of providing helmets and bulletproof vests last year. However, he did not mention plans to provide assistance with weapons of destruction to Ukraine.

Zelensky thanked Yoon Seok yeol for his visit and South Korea's strong support for Ukraine, including providing "important political, security, economic, and humanitarian assistance" to Ukraine. He stated that both sides also exchanged views on economic and energy assistance programs.

South Korea is under pressure

In recent years, South Korea has vigorously promoted the export of military products. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the global market share of South Korea's military exports has jumped from 12th place in 2017 to 9th place.

In addition, South Korea has become the third largest arms supplier to NATO and its member countries, only behind the United States and France. The New York Times previously reported that South Korea's weapons exports surged by 140% last year to a record $17.3 billion, with tens of billions of dollars coming from selling tanks, howitzers, fighter jets, and multiple rocket launchers to Poland.

In the eyes of the outside world, as an ally and arms exporting country of the United States, the South Korean government had previously been cautious about military aid to Ukraine. But recently, the United States, the West, and Ukraine have been continuously pressuring South Korea on this issue.

In January of this year, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg called on South Korea to provide direct military support to Ukraine during his visit to South Korea, stating that Kiev urgently needed weapons to resist Russia.

In May this year, Ukrainian President's wife Zelenskaya visited South Korea as a presidential envoy, and in a previous interview, she hinted that she would request South Korea to "provide resources.". That month, Yin Xiyue and Zelensky met again during the G7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan.

Some signs from South Korea also suggest that Seoul may be intentionally "loosening its grip".

In April this year, Yoon Seok yeol hinted that if Ukrainian civilians are subjected to large-scale attacks during the conflict, South Korea's support for Ukraine will go beyond humanitarian and economic aid.

In May of this year, The Wall Street Journal reported that South Korea had agreed to transport hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber shells to Ukraine under a "secret agreement" signed with the United States. According to reports, South Korea will first transport the shells to the United States, and then transport them from the United States to Ukraine. But thereafter, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong seok reiterated that he would not provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, and that the Ministry of Defense would export shells to the United States on the premise that "the ultimate user of weapons is the United States.".

On the other hand, Russia has issued a warning to South Korea, stating that providing weapons to Ukraine would mean that South Korea is involved in the conflict.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that any act of providing weapons to Ukraine will be seen by Russia as an "openly hostile anti Russian act.". If South Korea does so, it will not only damage Russia South Korea relations, but also affect Russia's stance on the situation on the peninsula.

Is it possible for South Korea to provide military aid to Ukraine?

Some analysts believe that Yin Xiyue's visit to Ukraine may be an intention to align with NATO.

According to the Associated Press, although South Korea is not a member of NATO, it is considered one of NATO's Asia Pacific partners like Japan and other countries. In March of this year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also visited Ukraine.

Professor Lev Erik Isley from South Korea's Lihua Women's University believes that Yoon Seok yeol's sudden visit to Ukraine reflects South Korea's unity with NATO in "defending international order".

Another analysis suggests that South Korea and Japan may become "vanguards" in NATO's accelerated "eastward expansion into the Asia Pacific region.". This year's NATO summit has invited leaders from Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, known as the "Four Partners in the Asia Pacific", to attend for the second consecutive year, and has also signed an "Individual Targeted Partnership Plan" with Japan and South Korea. In response, South Korea's "East Asia Daily" stated that with the ITPP, South Korea "has become an associate member of NATO.".

However, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Chairman of South Korean Studies at the Brussels School of Management, believes that it remains to be seen whether Yin Xiyue's visit signifies a shift in South Korean policy and will provide more weapons support to Ukraine.

Pardo said that this visit demonstrates Zelensky's "recognition" of the assistance provided by South Korea so far. This may also suggest that South Korea will provide more support to Ukraine behind the scenes.