Encourage the democratic camp? To protect oneself?, Thai Prime Minister Prayut announced his withdrawal from politics. The next Prime Minister will step down from politics

Release time:Apr 14, 2024 04:24 AM

After 9 years in power, Thai Prime Minister Prayut put an end to his political career - on July 11th, he announced his withdrawal from politics.

It is believed that after a disastrous defeat in the May general election, Bayou has shown signs of resignation, and it is not surprising to announce his retirement now.

However, as Bayu officially announced his retirement, the Thai parliament will vote to elect the next Prime Minister on the 13th, two days later.

What signal and impact does the announcement of Bayu's departure at this moment release? Is it an encouragement for the democratic camp or an opportunity for other candidates in the military camp? Perhaps, once the results of the Prime Minister election are announced, the answer will naturally surface.

I have already had the intention to withdraw

"From now on, I announce my withdrawal from politics and from the Thai Solidarity Party." On the same day, Bayo issued a statement on the social media account of the Thai Solidarity Party.

At the same time, Bayu promised to continue serving as caretaker prime minister until the establishment of a new government.

The announcement of Ba Yu's retirement may seem sudden, but it is not particularly surprising.

Reuters pointed out that in January of this year, Bayu joined the less than a year old Thai Solidarity Party and was nominated by the party as the candidate for the next Prime Minister. However, the Thai Solidarity Party suffered a heavy defeat in the May election this year - winning only 36 seats in the 500 seat lower house of parliament, ranking fifth. Afterwards, the outside world speculated that the Palestinian Authority would withdraw from politics.

In fact, on the 29th of last month, Bayo had already expressed his intention to withdraw.

He announced that he will no longer run for re-election, but will continue to serve as Prime Minister until the new cabinet is sworn in.

Earlier, when asked by the media whether he had a desire to continue serving as Prime Minister, Bayou stated that he did not, stating that he "did not see a chance for re-election.".

He also stated that even with the support of the House of Lords, he would not run for Prime Minister.

In the design of Thailand's political system, the upper house controlled by the military has a significant influence on the Prime Minister election.

The public opinion believes that after the disastrous defeat in the May election, Bayou deeply knows that there is no hope of re-election, and continuing to stay in power is meaningless. Instead, it will attract criticism from the public and further damage the image of the military. Observers say that the May election results are actually a negation of the military government.

Ba Yu's choice to leave signifies the end of his 9-year rule. Bayu has served as the Chief of Staff, Deputy Commander, and Army Commander of the Thai Army. In 2014, the Thai military launched a coup to overthrow the Thai government led by Yingluck. Bayu was appointed as the Chairman of the National Committee for the Maintenance of Peace and Order, and in August of the same year, he became the Prime Minister of Thailand. In 2019, Thailand resumed elections and Prayu was elected as Prime Minister.

During his 9 years in power, Bayu experienced many storms. The COVID-19, the economic downturn, many congressional vote of no confidence, street protests and demonstrations... In particular, the continuous large-scale protests in 2020 have caused the biggest ruling crisis in his term.

Last year, the term of Prime Minister Bayou was challenged by the opposition and was forced to suspend his duties. In the end, the Constitutional Court made a ruling in his favor, allowing Ba Yucai to overcome the difficulties.

In a statement on Tuesday, 69 year old Bayou summarized his 9-year career as a prime minister and stated that he has achieved many results.

"As the Prime Minister, I strive to protect the country, religion, and monarchy, and work for the welfare of my dear people... I strive to strengthen the stability and peace of the country in various fields, overcoming many obstacles domestically and internationally."

Delicate timing

Although the decision to leave has been made, the timing of Ba Yu's official announcement is remarkable.

This Thursday, the Thai parliament will convene all 750 members of the upper and lower houses to vote on the Prime Minister candidates elected by various political parties. Candidates who receive support from more than half of the members will be elected as Prime Minister.

This means that Bayou announced this major decision two days before the election of the new prime minister.

Titinan Pontilak, a political scientist and director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, said that Prayut's "retirement" can be seen as "an encouragement to democratic supporters" and may give Yuanjin Party leader Pita an opportunity to be elected prime minister and form a government.

Currently, Pita is considered the most popular candidate for the next Prime Minister.

His Far Progressive Party won the top spot in the May general election, winning 151 seats, making it the largest party in the House of Commons.

Earlier, Pita claimed to have received sufficient support from the House of Lords and is expected to become the next Prime Minister.

On Tuesday, Pita posted a video on social media Facebook, calling on lawmakers to follow public opinion when electing a new prime minister and allow the eight party coalition, which holds the most seats, to smoothly form a new government.

Previously, the Far Progressive Party and seven other parties formed an "Eight Party Alliance" to seek governance. The Eight Party Alliance currently holds 312 seats in the House of Commons.

However, public opinion believes that Pita's path as prime minister remains unpredictable.

Firstly, he is facing an investigation by the Thai Election Commission regarding his eligibility to run for public office. Pita is accused of holding shares in a bankrupt media company owned by his late father while participating in elections, in violation of election laws.

Secondly, with the support of the "Eight Party Alliance", although Pita already holds 312 votes, he still needs to win the support of at least 64 members of parliament to reach the threshold of 376 votes to be elected as prime minister.

Of particular concern to the outside world is whether Pita can receive sufficient support from the 250 members of the House of Lords appointed by the military, which is still unknown.

Due to the radical political stance of the Far Progressive Party, such as advocating for demilitarization and amending laws that offend the monarchy, some upper house members have expressed that they will not support Pita.

Who will take over?

Analysts believe that if Pita is unable to "clear customs", the prime minister candidate elected by the Thai party, the second largest party in the House of Commons, will be in a favorable position. He believes that his daughter Petongtan and real estate tycoon Sreta may both represent the Thai party in the bid for the position of prime minister.

The Thai party won 141 seats in the May general election, ranking second only to the Far Progressive Party by a margin of 10 seats. Moreover, the Thaksin family, which supports the Thai party, has a wide range of supporters and significant political influence within Thailand.

This political influence is projected in the recent election of the Speaker of the House of Commons.

At that time, both the Thai Party and the Far Progressive Party were dissatisfied with the candidate for the Speaker of the House proposed by the other party. After repeated tugs of war, the two sides finally reached a compromise plan - to elect the leader of the National Party, Vano, as the Speaker of the House of Commons and appoint him as the President of the National Assembly.

Vano is believed to come from the conservative camp and is also a veteran of multiple political parties, including the predecessor of the Thai Party, the Thai Love Thai Party. He also served as Deputy Prime Minister during the tenure of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

"Choosing Vano as Speaker of the House of Commons shows that the Thai party has significant influence over the Far Progressive Party," said Syetarn Hansakul, senior analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit

"Both are not the preferred choices for the pro establishment camp in Thailand," Hansakul said. However, the threat posed by the Thai party to Thailand's current system is relatively small, as it has not proposed an agenda for reforming Thailand's monarchy and military.

After Vano became the Speaker of the House of Commons, Nomura Securities assessed that there was a 60% chance that the coalition government would be led by the Thai Party rather than the Far Progressive Party.

Some analysts speculate that if the candidate for Prime Minister of the Thai Party is also rejected, then Vice Prime Minister Bawi from the People's National Power Party, who has a military background, may receive support from the upper house and become the next Prime Minister. Paul Chambers, a political analyst and lecturer at the University of Thailand, holds this view.

Some analysts suggest that Bayu's withdrawal may be aimed at avoiding internal friction and leaving room for Bayu's promotion. Reuters previously pointed out that with the support of the House of Lords, political parties that support the military may still form a minority government.

Associate Professor Pavin from the Southeast Asian Studies Center at Kyoto University stated that although Payu withdrew, Thailand's political structure will not change, and the military remains a key force in Thai politics.

Professor Zakari Abuza, who focuses on political and security issues in Southeast Asian countries at the National Defense University in the United States, has also judged that a conservative alliance supported by the House of Lords is more likely to emerge than an alliance led by democrats.

However, in Chambers' view, if Bavi takes office, the "outcome" may not be ideal, "it will anger supporters of the Far Progressive Party and trigger large-scale demonstrations and protests.".

According to the election procedure, if a new prime minister cannot be elected by Thursday's vote, the parliament will hold a second round of voting next Wednesday; If there are no results in the second round of elections, a third round of voting will be held next Thursday.

Received endorsement from the United States and South Korea? Japan may finalize schedule for Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge into the sea, US, Japan, South Korea | Kishida | Nuclear wastewater | Japan

On the 20th local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida immediately went to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant after his trip to the United States to inspect the preparations for the discharge of contaminated water into the sea. Japanese media also reported that the Japanese government will hold a cabinet meeting on the 22nd to finalize the schedule for the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea. Public opinion has noticed that in the context of the Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge plan seemingly receiving support from the US and South Korean governments, Kishida's visit to Fukushima this time aims to win the support of local people for this plan. However, there are still many questions to be answered regarding the Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge plan. Before making a final decision, I would like to personally visit the site. On the 18th local time, after meeting with US and South Korean leaders in the United States, Kishida stated that he will go to Fukushima before the 20th to inspect the preparations for the discharge of nuclear contaminated water into the sea. For

The Russian central bank urgently raised interest rates by 350 basis points, causing the Russian ruble to drop to a nearly 17 month low. The Russian central bank urgently raised interest rates, and the ruble exchange rate fell

According to foreign media reports, the Russian central bank held a non routine interest rate meeting on the 15th local time, during which it decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 350 basis points from the previous 8.5% to 12%. The previous day, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar fell below 100 rubles per dollar, marking the first time since March last year that it has fallen below this psychological threshold. After the Russian central bank announced its interest rate hike decision, the ruble has rebounded somewhat. According to reports, the Russian central bank announced a significant interest rate hike on the 15th, stating that as the ruble depreciates and inflation expectations rise, this decision is aimed at limiting the risk of price stability. However, the Russian central bank has previously stated that it has not seen any threat to financial stability from the decline in the ruble. It is reported that due to the previous drop of the ruble to US dollar exchange rate below 1 to 100 rubles, it was originally scheduled for September

WHO says "we need to pay attention". COVID-19 mutant EG. 5 attracts attention from WHO | COVID-19 mutant EG. 5

Recently, the number of cases infected with COVID-19 variant strain EG. 5 has been on the rise in many parts of the world. On the 9th, the World Health Organization listed EG.5 as a "variant that needs attention.". However, experts and scholars generally believe that EG. 5 will not pose a serious threat to public health. The mutated strain that needs attention, due to naming differences, appears to be a new strain of EG.5. In fact, it is not the case. Like strains such as XBB.1.16, EG. 5 is also a member of the Omicron family. This means that compared to other recently popular Omicron variants, the changes in EG. 5 are relatively limited, unlike the leap from Delta to Omicron. However, EG. 5 is also constantly evolving and currently has its own branch, EG. 5.1. In terms of symptoms, compared with other COVID-19 strains

Is Twitter hanging?, Threads users quickly surpassed 100 million Zuckerberg | Musk | Twitter | Threads

On July 10th, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of "Yuan" Inc. in the United States, stated on his Threads account that within less than a week of its launch, the number of registered Threads users has reached 100 million. How can this new platform achieve such astonishing user growth? What impact will it have on the competitive landscape of social media? Various issues have attracted public attention. Zuckerberg said on his Threads account that since its launch on July 6th, the number of registered Threads users has reached 100 million over the weekend. He also said that this was achieved in the context of Threads not yet launching large-scale promotion. "I can't believe it's only been five days!" Zuckerberg previously revealed that on the first day of its launch, Threads attracted 30 million users to register and became an Apple app provider

Finalizing the Military Industry Cooperation Roadmap, Intended for China and Russia? US Defense Minister Visits India | US Defense Minister Visits India

According to foreign media reports, on June 5th local time, during the visit of US Secretary of Defense Austin to India, the two countries have developed a roadmap for defense industry cooperation in the coming years. The public opinion believes that the US government is strengthening its defense partnership with India, freeing India from its dependence on Russia in defense and achieving the goal of balancing China in the Asia Pacific region. Strengthening India's "Defense Manufacturing Ambition" Local time from June 4th to 5th, Austin departed for India after concluding the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore. This is his second visit to India since March 2021. During the visit, Austin met with Indian Defense Minister Singh and finalized a roadmap for defense industry cooperation between the two countries in the coming years. In response, the US Department of Defense issued a statement stating that this move aims to change the cooperation between the defense departments of the two countries

Important news

The boundless scenery is always new-General Secretary Xi Jinping guides the construction of digital society, review and development | education | society Unswervingly Promote and Improve the Comprehensive and Strict Party Governance System Xi Jinping | Strict Party Governance | System "Seeking Truth" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping "Improving the Comprehensive and Strict Party Governance System and Promoting the New Great Project of Party Building in the New Era to Develop in Depth" State | President | Xi Jinping General Secretary's thoughts are still in my mind, learning from the season | building a modern marine ranching power | developing | the ocean Leading the way with a heavy load | More vitality in opening up to the outside world, stronger momentum in science and technology innovation - Strong development momentum in the ancient capital of Xi'an Automotive | New energy | Opening up to the outside world Chinese Stars | 210 Seconds Review of the Victory of Aerospace Heroes on their Way Home! Flying | Divine Boat | Hero

Political situation

What are the remaining obstacles in the investigation and undercover investigation by the law enforcement inspection team of the Municipal People's Congress? This work evaluates that Shanghai has always been at the forefront of garbage classification | garbage | law enforcement Looking forward to the global high-quality engineering enterprise layout in Shanghai, Mayor Gong Zheng meets with the President elect of the World Federation of Engineering Organizations | Global | Quality To jointly discuss and deepen cooperation and exchange in counterpart support, Chen Jining and Nie Zhuang led a discussion on the work of the party and government delegation in Kashgar, Xinjiang Chen Jining and Gong Zheng jointly inspected and discussed, jointly serving the overall development of the country! Yin Li and Yin Yong led a Beijing delegation to Shanghai to inspect the delegation's development and overall situation Contributed about 1/4 of the GDP of Shanghai, currently with 70000 foreign-funded enterprises in Shanghai. The Youth Association of Shanghai Foreign Countries has helped each other in terms of membership and GDP The representative group of Yangpu Street helps to alleviate public concerns, with garbage belts turning back into green belts and street lights lighting up again in residential areas | Representative | Yangpu

Economics

What else can I rely on for growing vegetables?, Agricultural Experiment of a Group of Young People: Lettuce without Heaven or Earth | Physical Strength | Agriculture Very few have been rejected at once... Shanghai Automotive Engine Factory has presented 49 automotive grade chips to solicit domestic alternatives to SAIC | Netherlands | United States | Lingang Pujiang International Science and Technology City | Substitution | Import | Localization | Automotive grade chips Is there still a "flower head" in domestic blockchain?, No Bitcoin, First Blockchain Technology National Standard Released Web3.0 | Blockchain | Domestic These top domestic and international beverage cold drink brands have rolled up like this, in order to welcome the overall recovery of the consumer market as a brand | Sugar Tea | International Making a dojo inside a snail shell allows the city's scraps to make a comeback. This European style garden in Shanghai used to be a "stone" on the road. Shanghai Pocket Park | Sparrow Little Dirty | Making a dojo inside a snail shell 23 industry associations (business and academic) in the Yangtze River Delta have established alliances to provide trade adjustment assistance, and the foreign trade situation is complex and severe. | Trade | Alliance

Regional situation

Shanghai Charity Foundation Successfully Issued First Electronic Donation Receipt Community | Activity | Shanghai Charity Foundation Carry out normalized social theater performance activities, and the "hometown of drama" Songjiang Xinbang will resume stage and social theater | Drama | Songjiang Xinbang How to promote and replicate the "near rail model"? Changfeng Xincun Street Building Party Building 4.0 Model | Building Committee | Jintie The largest single scale near zero energy consumption building in Shanghai will be built, and the construction area of the first batch of "Jiabao Smart Bay" in Jiading New City will start | plot | first batch Jing'an creates "one park, one theme", and the art exhibition "Painting Life and Coloring" opens at Jing'an Sculpture Park to experience | Art | Jing'an The highlights of the Xuhui exhibition area at the first Carbon Expo are frequent, including waste plastic recycling and environmental protection roads, Shanghai's first near zero carbon community, low-carbon | green | community

Viewpoint

"White carbon" is on the rise, and there are many colors of carbon? This is definitely not sensationalism, carbon dioxide emissions, color Where does the trend go: "China-Chic" cultural and creative market status, development trend and innovation path Cultural and creative | Chinese goods | China-Chic He demonstrated the essence of the revolutionary ideology and spiritual qualities of communists, and during his brief 40 years of life, Secretary Yu Xiusong's ideology What is the relationship between the "four major functions" and the "five centers"? Accurately grasp these two key elements | functions | relationships Why mention "Clean Your Plate Campaign" again?, Today's life | leftovers | CDs To find the balance between digitization and greening, experts say that excessive digitization may increase energy consumption. Digital | Green | Digitization

Vision

Celebrating the Second Anniversary of the US Army's Withdrawal, [Looking at the World] Afghan Taliban Armed Security Personnel March Typhoon | Taliban | Afghanistan It's more convenient to buy book exhibition tickets offline today, including ID card, cash, and old-fashioned mobile phones. Lu Xun | Book Exhibition | Mobile Phone These spaces create multiple interactive viewing experiences for citizens and tourists, playing with weekend aesthetics | Design | Citizens The opening ceremony will continue as usual. [Looking at the World] The opening match of the Women's World Cup. A shooting occurred in Auckland City, resulting in three deaths. The World Cup | Event | Opening match World Blood Donor Day: Oriental Pearl TV Tower, Shanghai center and other city landmarks light up Life Red World Blood Donor Day Take the artwork home for a thousand yuan? Many people come to this exhibition for their "treasure hunting" works | gallery | to take home