Deep | NATO Holds the Largest Air Exercise in History: Diverse Attitudes between Germany and the United States? Why did Japan participate in it? Japan participates in | Russia | Ukraine | the largest air exercise in history | NATO|

25 countries, 250 aircraft, and 10000 soldiers. Starting from June 12th, NATO forces will gather on a large scale in Germany to hold the largest air military exercise in history.

German officials stated that the exercise is a defensive exercise aimed at practicing the defense of European airspace. But the United States emphasizes that the exercise sends a signal of strength, not just for deterrence.

As the war in Ukraine continues and Ukraine claims to launch a counterattack, the skies over Europe, including Russia's doorstep, are filled with the roar of fighter jets and smoke, making the scene particularly eye-catching. What are the considerations for NATO's move? What kind of impact will it have on the already fragile European security situation?

Send a signal of strength?

Since the Cold War era, military exercises have been an important means for NATO to strengthen its military strength and deter Eastern opponents.

It is reported that NATO member countries and partner countries hold hundreds of joint military exercises every year.

Skyguard 23 is one of them. It was proposed by Germany in 2018 with the goal of conducting air combat with allied air forces to optimize and expand cooperation among participating countries.

After a long preparation, the military exercise finally made a brilliant debut, with many highlights in terms of scale, location, and content.

Let's first look at the scale. It is said to be the largest air exercise since the establishment of NATO in 1949.

During the exercise, approximately 250 aircraft and 10000 soldiers from 25 countries were deployed to 6 military bases in Germany, conducting approximately 2000 flights.

About a quarter of the soldiers and half of the aircraft are provided by the United States, including B-1 strategic bombers, F-35 fighter jets, and long-range lethal drones.

Looking at the location again, German media focused their attention on some training sessions approaching the Russian border.

It is reported that most of the exercise projects will be completed in three training airspace within Germany, and some projects will also be carried out in the Czech Republic, Romania, and Baltic countries, including Estonia, which borders Russia. Participating countries will also conduct defense exercises against enemy submarines or ships over the North Sea.

Finally, looking at the content, the exercise simulates the transportation of a large number of troops and equipment from the United States to Europe, with NATO countries being attacked as the hypothetical background.

Among them, the basic scenarios include enemy occupation of German ports, how participating troops can complete actions such as retaking ports and other infrastructure, defending cities, and transitioning to attack.

It is noteworthy that the German military and US officials have varying degrees of attitude when introducing the purpose of the exercise.

German media reported that the German Air Force commander was cautious and repeatedly pointed out that the exercises were aimed at defense and did not target anyone, and participating military aircraft would not fly to Kaliningrad.

In contrast, American officials have shown a high profile, not mentioning defense at all. They believe that the purpose of the exercise is not only to deter, but also to prepare and coordinate NATO's internal and external allies; The exercise will aim to send a "signal of strength" and leave a deep impression on allies and opponents, including Russian President Putin.

Cui Hongjian, Director of the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of International Studies, and Wang Qiang, a military expert, pointed out that the exercise occurred at a time when Ukraine launched a so-called counterattack, and NATO's intention to build momentum for Ukraine and strengthen its deterrence against Russia was obvious.

At the same time, the characteristics presented in the exercise reflect some internal trends and considerations within NATO.

Cui Hongjian provides observations from three perspectives: focus, host, and timeline.

One is the so-called largest air exercise in history. This indicates that in the coming period, NATO's focus will be on strengthening air defense and preventing the Ukrainian crisis from spreading to NATO countries. This is in line with the previous focus of Nordic countries on air defense.

The second is led by Germany. This is a significant change in Germany's attitude. Germany used to be relatively low-key on security issues, but since last year, its attitude has become increasingly positive. This air defense exercise is directly related to the "Sky Shield" air defense plan that Germany has been promoting before.

Thirdly, it occurred on the eve of the NATO summit in July. Whether it is NATO's discussion on Ukraine's accession or recent frequent military exercises, they are all setting the tone for the upcoming summit in Hungary and preparing for future strategic changes. It is reported that this summit will introduce a long-term strategic plan for Russia and European security.

Wang Qiang mentioned two key words: restraining opponents and improving abilities.

On the one hand, the exercise is equivalent to strategically cooperating with Ukraine's counterattack and restraining Russian military forces.

"This type of large-scale military exercise involves a wide range of levels and a large scale of mobilization of combat forces. The Russian side has to take more rigorous response measures and redeploy in terms of combat command and military force distribution." Wang Qiang pointed out that from this perspective, this is NATO's integration of strategic pressure on Russia, and it is also a powerful measure for its military linkage with Ukraine to squeeze Russia's strategic space.

On the other hand, the exercises will reorganize and enhance NATO's combat capabilities.

"Unlike previous air exercises, this time NATO's fifth generation, fourth generation, and third generation aircraft will take turns to launch operations, achieving integrated strikes of combat systems and forces." Wang Qiang pointed out that with Finland's accession, the exercise will involve seamless integration of sensors, platforms, and combat command systems. Therefore, this is also a test and enhancement of NATO's overall combat capability.

Difficult to solve security dilemma

At the moment when NATO is showing off its muscles, German public opinion is also concerned.

The German Aviation Service Union reminds that the exercise coincides with the summer travel peak in some areas, which will affect civil aviation transportation. Data shows that the exercise will cause up to 50000 minutes of daily civil aviation delays.

German politicians criticize that large-scale military gatherings not only waste money, but also consume a large amount of fuel, leaving a "climate footprint".

The German public is concerned that the exercise may send the wrong signal, leading to further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine.

On June 10th, about 300 residents held a protest rally outside the Wenstov Air Force Base in Germany, shouting "peace" slogans and displaying anti war slogans, calling on Germany to resolve the Ukrainian crisis through diplomatic means rather than an arms race.

Recently, in addition to Air Guard 23, NATO has conducted multiple military exercises at different locations around Russia.

It is widely believed that NATO will "show off its muscles" and Russia will also launch countermeasures through military exercises and other means, which will exacerbate regional tension and further worsen the security situation in Europe. The strategic autonomy of regional countries will be further lost

"The current situation is severe and eerie." Wang Qiang pointed out that behind it, the Ukrainian crisis is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also a symbol of the outbreak of long-term strategic contradictions between the United States and Russia, as well as the turbulence of the global governance system. As a party, Europe's strategic capabilities and intentions have been kidnapped by the United States, making it difficult to avoid being involved. And the United States does not want a peaceful and stable scene in Europe, because international financial capital can take advantage of the turmoil in Europe to salvage benefits. This is a strategic game between neoliberalism and conservative nationalism in the process of expansion. As the United States hijacks NATO and strengthens its strategic containment of Russia, the danger and risk in the European region continue to rise. The unstable situation in Europe will continue.

Cui Hongjian believes that Europe is trapped in a security dilemma. It blamed Russia for the tense situation and accused the latter of posing a threat to European security, so NATO had to take action. However, NATO's so-called "response" to Russian security threats has instead become a root cause of rising security risks in Europe. At present, Germany is gradually moving away from its post-war pacifist policy and is shifting towards militarization, which objectively increases the risk of an internal arms race in Europe.

However, does this mean that Europe will willingly comply with US strategic goals and increasingly lose strategic autonomy? Cui Hongjian believes that this may not be the case.

"Despite the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the United States' portrayal of Russia's security threats, the security concerns of NATO and most European countries have shown consistency. However, it is still uncertain how long this consistency can be maintained. On the one hand, Germany is strengthening cooperation with NATO, including air exercises, etc.; on the other hand, Germany also hopes to create some conditions for Europe itself through policy changes." Cui Hongjian pointed out.

Tentacles extending towards Asia

When the participating national fighter jets take off, except for the 23 NATO member countries, the two non commissioned personnel from Japan and Sweden may be more prominent.

Public opinion believes that the participation of "associate member" Sweden is not unexpected, and it is actively seeking Türkiye's "release". In contrast, Japan, which is located on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean and bound by Article 9 of its domestic peace constitution, is also accelerating its approach to NATO, which is not surprising.

Why did Japan travel thousands of miles to Europe to "wade through the muddy waters"?

From a Japanese perspective, "participating in NATO military exercises is a strategic move by Japan to create so-called national normalization in the process of military expansion, driven by two factors." Wang Qiang pointed out that firstly, the United States urgently needs Japan to improve its military strategic capabilities and join the strategic game of great power competition. Secondly, as an important component of the "Asian version of NATO" that the United States is attempting to build, Japan's joint exercises with NATO in Europe are also a training and enhancement of its military capabilities.

From a European perspective, "this is a manifestation of the breakthrough and improvement of bilateral relations in the context of the Ukraine crisis." Cui Hongjian pointed out that this is in NATO's interest and is part of its overall deterrence against Russia. It also does not want the Asia Pacific direction and the border between Japan and Russia to become a loophole in the comprehensive containment of Russia. In the future, strengthening cooperation between the two sides in European affairs will become a trend.

As Japan accelerates its approach to NATO, the trend of "NATO Asia Pacific" has attracted attention.

Both scholars mentioned that there are still differences within NATO regarding the establishment of an office in Japan.

"If NATO wants to extend its tentacles to the Asia Pacific region by enhancing its relations with Japan, it will not only be detrimental to Japan, but also to the United States," Cui Hongjian reminded.

"The internal contradictions within NATO are gradually becoming prominent." Wang Qiang pointed out that on the one hand, some veteran European countries, especially those on the European continent, hope to focus on Europe, especially in the context of Russia's withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the rising geopolitical risks in Europe. For example, France explicitly stated that this is a collective defense organization in Europe and does not want to extend its tentacles in other directions.

On the other hand, the United States clearly has other considerations and hopes that NATO will make new adjustments to its strategic priorities, which is also proposed in the "NATO 2030" outline document, which aims to play a greater role as a global security framework. The most solid foundation for the United States in the Asia Pacific region is Japan. Through this live combat docking and military empowerment, NATO's tentacles in combat entities have actually entered the Asian system. Next, NATO may shift more attention to the Asia Pacific region.

"However, this will also cause another dispute among European countries about the direction of NATO," Wang Qiang pointed out.