International

In the face of the biggest change in the world in a century, profound changes in the international situation and the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Gulf countries pay more attention to stabilizing the political situation, revitalizing the economy and improving people's livelihood, and independently adjust domestic and foreign policies in accordance with their own interests and requirements, and adhere to their own path. In view of this, significant historical changes occurred in the Gulf situation in the first half of 2023, with relative stability replacing the tense and turbulent past, and a new situation of reconciliation, cooperation, and development emerged. The Shai reconciliation has greatly enhanced the positive energy of regional peace. The reconciliation between the two sides has made substantial progress. On April 6th, Foreign Minister Shay issued a joint statement in Beijing, announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries from now on. On June 6th, Iran reopened its embassies and consulates in Riyadh and Jeddah, respectively. Shai's transportation cooperation has made certain progress. During the pilgrimage, Yi

On July 25th, the International Monetary Fund released an update to the World Economic Outlook report. This updated report titled "Short term Resilience, Continuous Challenges" places the world economy in a shadow of light and shadow. On the one hand, the IMF is certain of the signs of progress showing in the short term and has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 3% compared to April. On the other hand, the IMF warns that although the world economy is on track, it is still struggling, with weak growth and facing multiple downward risks. As 2023 enters the second half of the year, with a series of economic data released from various countries, what key clues does the IMF's updated report provide for people to see the global economic outlook clearly? Compared to the April report, the biggest highlight of the latest report is that it shows signs of progress

The 100 meter tsunami swept through New York, and the world entered a period of glaciers... If you are a movie fan, you must have been deeply impressed by the scenes in the American disaster film "The Day After Tomorrow". The cause of these abnormal climates in the film is the complete collapse of a global ocean current system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Although the plot of the movie is a bit exaggerated, the risk of AMOC collapse is by no means sensational, and the latest research suggests that this time may even come early. On the 25th, the journal Nature published the latest findings from a research team at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. Research shows that AMOC may collapse by the middle of this century, or even as early as 2025. This conclusion is more pessimistic than the United Nations assessment. Once AMOC collapses, it will have a huge impact on the global ecosystem and affect every villager on Earth. Heating furnace

Recently, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy publicly stated that the investigation surrounding US President Biden has risen to a level where Congress can initiate an impeachment investigation. This is seen as McCarthy's most explicit impeachment threat against Biden since taking office, which has attracted public attention in the context of the upcoming US election next year. Clear threat: "We have always been following information. However, this has risen to the level of impeachment investigations." McCarthy told Fox News on the 24th that impeachment investigations can provide Congress with powerful power to obtain other information needed to uncover the truth. McCarthy also compared Biden to the protagonist of the Watergate scandal, former US President Nixon, accusing him of "weaponizing the government, benefiting his family, and weakening Congress's oversight capabilities.". However, McCarthy did not provide

Recently, there have been frequent and unsettling screenplays on the Korean Peninsula. The USS Kentucky left Busan for only three days, and on the 24th, the USS Annapolis entered Jeju. Faced with repeated threats from the US South Korea alliance, North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile late on the 24th, marking Pyongyang's third time firing a missile since last week. If the main storyline of the script is the confrontation between the United States and South Korea, then several other branches of the storyline are also worth paying attention to, including the incident of American soldiers breaking into North Korea and the upcoming "Armistice Day" commemoration event in Pyongyang. What kind of situation is the situation on the Korean Peninsula presenting under the interweaving of complex clues, and what kind of trend will it have, which affects the global vision. In the new round of peninsula confrontation, the South Korean President will accelerate the "hard and fast" game by the end of April this year

Recently, Japan's export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment have officially come into effect. This move is seen as in line with the pace of the United States, suppressing the development of China's chip industry and technology. However, according to Reuters, some Japanese officials are feeling uneasy about Japan's joint efforts with the United States to restrict exports of products such as chips to China. They are concerned that the aggressive behavior of the United States may create obstacles for allies to coordinate and unnecessarily provoke Beijing, leading to destructive retaliation. There are also comments pointing out that the Fumio Kishida government supports the United States in restricting the export of chip manufacturing equipment to curb China's ability to produce advanced semiconductors. The concerns of some Japanese officials highlight that this decision has not received full support in Japan. Worried about intensifying relations with China, starting from the 23rd of this month, the Japanese government will add export restrictions on 23 types of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 6 major categories

On July 24th, the Israeli parliament voted to pass a bill that deprives the Supreme Court of the power to reject government decisions on the grounds of "unreasonable", which is seen as the "first step" taken by the Israeli government in carrying out judicial reform. Since the beginning of this year, the Israeli government has been committed to promoting judicial reform in order to enhance its influence in the country's political life. But critics are concerned that this move will weaken the power of the judicial system. As opposition intensifies, protests are spreading in the country's politics, economy, security, and other fields. After taking the first step and months of deliberation, this "reasonable" bill was finally voted on in the Israeli parliament on the 24th. All 64 members of parliament from the ruling coalition voted in favor. Even Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had just undergone a pacemaker implantation surgery in the early hours of the 23rd, personally went to parliament to witness

This week, the South Pacific region will welcome a series of historic visits, from the first US Defense Minister to visit Papua New Guinea to the first French President to visit the illegally owned islands in the region. And Macron's appearance is undoubtedly more eye-catching than Austin, as he will be the latest world leader to step onto a Pacific island nation. From July 24th to 28th, Macron will visit French New Caledonia and will make his first visit to Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, two non French territories of South Pacific. The Elysee Palace has promised to bring an alternative to China and the United States to South Pacific Island. It is believed that as South Pacific increasingly attracts the attention of major powers, France is also trying to voice its own opinions, including advancing the implementation of the Indo Pacific strategy. Whether the "French choice" can meet regional needs will depend on France's own strategic choices

Elon Musk, who has been constantly testing the waters of reform since acquiring Twitter, has made new moves. On the 23rd, he tweeted repeatedly stating that he would change the Twitter logo from Bluebird to "X". "We will soon bid farewell to the Twitter brand and gradually bid farewell to all birds," he said. If we can find a good "X" icon, it will be released globally on Monday. Currently, Musk has replaced his Twitter avatar with a black "X" logo image. Analysis indicates that this will be the latest significant change since Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Musk aims to accelerate the development of a versatile application that encompasses everything. Since its launch on Twitter in 2006, Bluebird has been its exclusive trademark for creating a "universal program". The name of the tweet comes from a type of bird call. The founder believes that bird calls belong to short and fast frequencies, which are related to

Spain holds parliamentary elections on July 23rd. The preliminary vote count shows that the right-wing party, the People's Party, ranks first in terms of vote share, while the current ruling party and left-wing party, the Workers' Socialist Party, rank second. But neither party has obtained the absolute majority of seats required to form a separate government. At present, it seems that there is no clear path for left-wing and right-wing political parties to form a governing coalition, which means that the fourth largest economy of the European Union may fall into a political stalemate. Who is the winner? In May of this year, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez from the Socialist Party of Workers announced that the Spanish general election, originally scheduled for December this year, would be postponed to July 23rd. Public opinion believes that at that time, the Workers' Socialist Party was facing setbacks in local elections, and Sanchez was betting that early elections would have a greater chance of winning for the party. However, opportunities and risks coexist. At that time, it was on the right wing

Next week, two senior US officials will appear in the Asia Pacific region at the same time - Secretary of State Antony Blinken will start a trip to Tonga, New Zealand and Australia from the 24th. Austin, the defense minister, visited Papua New Guinea from the 26th and "joined forces" with Antony Blinken in Australia. Analysis suggests that the United States' renewed efforts in the South Pacific are aimed at strengthening allies and partnerships, and cooperating with its "Indo Pacific strategy" to engage in great power competition. However, despite unprecedented efforts by the United States to woo Pacific island countries, the results have been minimal. Both Australia and New Zealand tend to be more pragmatic in their diplomacy, while the other adheres to the principle of independence and autonomy, and may not necessarily be obedient to the United States. There is a huge question mark about whether a "journey of gathering" can be successful. It will be the fourth time that Antony Blinken has appeared in the Asia Pacific region in recent three months. In May, the President of the United States paid his respects

Recently, Taiwan's leading integrated circuit company TSMC confirmed that due to a lack of professional personnel, its factory in Arizona, USA, which was originally scheduled to start production in 2024, will be postponed for one year. Some comments suggest that this highlights the challenges TSMC faces in expanding overseas and the obstacles faced by the US government in attempting to reshape the semiconductor supply chain. TSMC announced in May 2020 that it would establish a factory in Arizona and start construction one year later. The original plan was to start production in 2024. TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin stated at the financial report press conference on the 20th that the factory construction process is entering a critical stage of installing professional equipment. However, the shortage of personnel caused delays in the progress. "We have encountered a certain challenge - a lack of professional personnel when installing equipment in semiconductor grade facilities." Liu Deyin predicts that the 4-nanometer process chip

According to foreign media reports, the Indian government announced on the 20th that it will ban the export of rice other than Indian fragrant rice, which will take effect immediately. This will halve the export volume of India, the world's largest rice exporting country, and raise concerns in the international market about further rising global food prices. Chairman of the Indian Rice Exporters Association B V. Krishna Rao even believes that this move may disrupt the international market more than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Reuters, the Indian government issued a statement on the 20th stating that in order to ensure sufficient rice supply in the Indian market and alleviate the rise in domestic rice prices, the Indian government has revised its export policy to ban rice exports other than Indian fragrant rice. India is the world's largest exporter of rice, with a record high of 22.2 million tons exported last year

As the crisis in Ukraine continues, John Kirby, Coordinator of Strategic Communications at the National Security Council of the United States, said on the 20th that the Ukrainian military has begun using cluster ammunition provided by the United States, which has an impact on the Russian defense formation and operations. Cluster ammunition has stronger killing power and a greater likelihood of causing civilian casualties than ordinary ammunition, and is banned by more than a hundred countries worldwide. However, the US government's decision two weeks ago to provide Ukraine with this type of ammunition has sparked widespread controversy and concern. During a briefing to the media on the same day, there was controversy over Kirby's statement that the United States received preliminary feedback from Ukraine that Ukraine is "effectively" using cluster ammunition, which will have an impact on the Russian defense formation and operations. According to reports, the Ukrainian army is using cluster ammunition on the front line in southeastern Ukraine, and has been attempting to advance in the area since last month. Next, the Ukrainian army may also gather

However, the White House feels a bit sour about Kissinger's easier contact with China than American officials. In this regard, American public opinion believes that this highlights Beijing's dual approach in repairing the severely damaged Sino US relationship - while accepting Washington's request for renewed engagement, it is engaging with Americans it deems trustworthy under its own conditions. Another analysis suggests that there is a lack of true strategists like Kissinger in today's US political arena. China hopes that the Biden administration can listen to rational and pragmatic voices when formulating policies towards China, and take practical actions to push China US relations back on track.

The fiery Chinese diplomacy can easily switch between home and away matches. Open the door here to welcome guests, and cross the country door to visit friends. Next week, the footprints of high-level Chinese officials will be imprinted on the distant African continent. From July 24 to 25, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and head of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Committee, will be invited to attend the 13th BRICS High Representative Meeting on Security Affairs in Johannesburg and visit Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa and Türkiye before and after the meeting. Bilateral and multilateral travel, cross regional travel, and also the second visit of a Chinese high-ranking official to Africa this year. What are the major agenda and highlights of Wang Yi's trip? Security representative meeting: pave the way for the summit in two days, attend the BRICS conference, "punch in" the three African countries, and visit Türkiye. Wang Yi's schedule is compact and efficient,

On the 19th, Russian President's press secretary Peskov stated that Putin will participate in the BRICS summit to be held in South Africa in late August via video, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will represent Russia at the summit. This statement ends months of speculation from the outside world about whether Putin will attend the meeting. The 15th BRICS Leaders Meeting will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa from August 22nd to 24th. For a period of time, South Africa has been under tremendous pressure from both domestic and international sources regarding the decision of the International Criminal Court in March this year regarding the Ukraine crisis and whether to receive Putin, putting it in a dilemma. Now, with the agreement of both Russia and South Africa, Moscow has finally adopted the method of leaders attending the entire conference online and the foreign minister attending on behalf of them. Spokesperson for the Office of the President of South Africa, Vincent·

On the 18th local time, a US soldier stationed in South Korea was detained for 50 days in South Korea and was taken to the airport waiting to return to the United States for punishment. However, he did not board the plane and instead disguised himself as a tourist, rushing across the military demarcation line between North and South Korea, and was detained by the North Korean side. For decades, it is the first time that American soldiers have voluntarily crossed the border to North Korea. At present, the North Korean authorities have not responded to this matter and are considered to be observing the US response. Who is this American soldier? Why did he make this "unbelievable" decision? On the 17th local time, 23-year-old US soldier Travis Kim arrived at Incheon International Airport in South Korea under the supervision of US military personnel and passed through customs checkpoints alone, thinking he was filming TikTok. Originally, he would take a plane back to the United States. However, just when everyone thought that Jin

On the 19th, the Thai parliament opened the agenda for the second round of Prime Minister elections. Pita, who became the only candidate for prime minister in the first round of elections but did not reach the top, originally intended to launch a second attack on the position of prime minister, but ultimately lost his candidacy due to opposition from lawmakers. At this point, Pita's campaign journey has basically come to an end, and external attention will now shift to the actions of the Thai party and conservatives. The election for Prime Minister in Thailand is not a direct election for the government's Prime Minister, but rather an election for members of parliament and political parties, and then the Prime Minister is elected by the parliament. The parliament is divided into two houses, with the upper house consisting of 250 members appointed by the military and the lower house consisting of 500 members elected. In the parliamentary elections held in May this year, the Far Progressive Party led by Pita won 151 seats, becoming the largest party in the House of Commons. He then joined forces

Just as a secret visit to China over 50 years ago melted the ice in US China relations, now, at a time when US China relations are in a slump, centenarian Kissinger has made a sudden visit to China. On the 19th, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, met with former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in Beijing. The day before, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu met with Kissinger. The timing of the visit to China, the target audience, the content of communication, and the release of signals... All the factors related to this unexpected visit have attracted attention. "I am here as a friend of China," Kissinger said during a meeting with Li Shangfu. As an old friend of the Chinese people, Kissinger has visited China hundreds of times over the past few decades. Affected by the COVID-19, this is his first visit to China after 2019. Public opinion

Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has once again tightened. The South Korean Ministry of Defense confirmed on the 18th that the US Navy's Ohio class strategic nuclear submarine Kentucky docked in Busan on the same day, marking the first visit of a US strategic nuclear submarine to South Korea in 42 years. On the same day, the South Korea US Nuclear Consultative Group held its first meeting in Seoul and issued a joint communiqu é, agreeing to build an integrated "extended deterrence" system against North Korea. At the same time, the South Korean military stated on the 19th that it observed North Korea firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the eastern waters of the peninsula in the early hours of the same day. Not long ago, North Korean officials demanded that the United States immediately cease all provocative actions. "At the same time as we were talking, a US nuclear submarine is entering port in Busan today." White House Indo Pacific Affairs Coordinator Campbell, who is attending the first meeting of the South Korean US "Nuclear Consultative Group" in Seoul, said of a rare visit by a US nuclear submarine to South Korea

After the expiration of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Export Agreement on the 17th, it is facing a freeze crisis. The Russian side announced that it will no longer continue to implement the agreement as it does not involve the Russian side. What are the considerations for Russia's suspension agreement this time? Can future agreements usher in a turning point? On the 17th local time, Russia announced to Türkiye, Ukraine and the United Nations that it opposed the extension of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports. On the same day, the press secretary of the Russian President, Peskov, stated that due to the fact that the part of the Black Sea port agricultural product export agreement involving Russia has not been implemented so far, the Russian side has terminated the effectiveness of the agreement. However, Peskov also stated that once the parts of the agreement involving the Russian side are implemented, the Russian side will immediately resume the implementation of the agreement. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis on February 24th last year, Ukraine

According to British media reports, over the years, millions of emails originally planned to be sent to the US military have been mistakenly sent to the African country of Mali, where the internet domain name suffix is ". ml", due to personnel mistakenly writing the address incorrectly when sending emails - mistakenly writing the US military email domain name suffix ". mil" as ". ml". The report stated that despite warnings issued by insiders for over a decade, the US government did not take this seriously, resulting in the leakage of non confidential but sensitive information. The difference of one word leads to an oolong. The domain name suffix of the email addresses of US military personnel is ". mil", while the network domain name suffix of Mali is ". ml", which is very similar. According to a report by the Financial Times on the 17th, for many years, relevant personnel have been continuously confusing the two when sending emails, resulting in

Faced with the possibility of further tightening restrictions on chip exports to China, the US chip industry is joining forces to launch an offensive against the Biden administration. According to Reuters, on July 17 local time, executives of American chip giants gathered in Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials of Biden's government to discuss restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. On the same day, the most influential semiconductor lobbying group in the United States, the Semiconductor Industry Association, urged the government to stop implementing more restrictions on chip exports to China. The public opinion believes that the US chip industry, from chip giants to industry associations, is taking a joint action in the hope of making final efforts during the window of slowing US China relations before the Biden administration upgrades its restrictions, in order to prevent the Biden administration from continuing to take a step towards "backlash against the United States.". Joint action, according to the US State Department and informed sources

In recent days, the European continent, which has been scorched by high temperatures, has also experienced a heatwave in the diplomatic field. The NATO summit has just concluded in Lithuania, followed by another "big party" with Latin American countries in Brussels. Starting from the 17th, the 2-day EU Latin American Community summit will kick off, marking the EU's second such summit in 8 years. Analysis suggests that the EU's "re emphasis" on Latin America is mainly due to its desire to win over the other party and exert pressure on Russia, as well as to achieve a re layout of the industrial and supply chains. The Euler relations may undergo subtle adjustments in the new situation, showing a positive trend, but at the same time, they also need to face some differences and challenges. In history, many Latin American countries were once colonies of Europe, and Europe, with its complex of suzerainty, has been committed to deepening its relations with Latin America. During this process, 19

On July 16th, the Ministerial Meeting of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement held in New Zealand made a major decision - officially approving the UK's accession to the CPTPP, making the UK the first European country to join the agreement. This seems to be a win-win "hand in hand". For CPTPP, this is the first expansion since it came into effect in 2018, with member countries increasing from 11 to 12, and the economic area covered by the agreement will extend to Europe. For the UK, this is the largest trade agreement reached since Brexit, reflecting its strategic vision of tilting towards the Indo Pacific region and strengthening trade relations with the Pacific region. However, there are still differences in public opinion on how much energy CPTPP will inject into the UK's economic growth, and the effectiveness remains to be seen. Why "Brexit into Asia"

According to multiple media reports, the Crimean Bridge was attacked twice in the early hours of the 17th local time, with explosions heard. According to officials in the Krasnodar Territory of Russia, the accident resulted in 2 deaths and 1 minor injury. Due to an "emergency" situation, traffic on the Crimean Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula and the Krasnodar Territory of Russia has been interrupted. TASS quoted the Russian Ministry of Transport as saying that the piers of the Crimean Bridge were not damaged, and the road surface of the bridge near the Crimean Peninsula was damaged. The investigation into the damage to the Crimean Bridge is still ongoing. Crimean officials stated that the railway tracks running parallel to the bridge were not damaged and transportation has now resumed. Last October, a truck exploded on the highway bridge of the Crimean Bridge, causing a cargo on the railway bridge parallel to the highway bridge

According to the website of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense on July 15th, according to the annual cooperation plan between the Chinese and Russian militaries, the Russian military will soon dispatch sea and air forces to participate in the "Northern Joint 2023" exercise organized by the Northern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army in the central Sea of Japan. The topic of this exercise is "Maintaining Maritime Strategic Channel Security", aiming to enhance the level of strategic cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries, enhance the ability to jointly maintain regional peace and stability, and respond to various security challenges. The Chinese troops participating in this exercise departed on July 15th. According to the People's Liberation Army News on July 15th, the Chinese maritime formation participating in the "Northern · United 2023" exercise has set sail from a military port in Qingdao on the same day and set sail for the designated sea area to carry out the exercise mission. The Chinese naval fleet consists of missile destroyers Qiqihar and Guiyang,

The diplomatic relay race of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is currently underway. After attending the NATO summit and the Japan Europe summit in Europe, he immediately moved to the Middle East and visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar from July 16th to 19th. This is Kishida's first visit to the Middle East during his tenure, and it is also Japan's Prime Minister's second visit to the Middle East after more than three years. "Energy diplomacy" is considered the key word for this trip. Due to factors such as the prolonged crisis in Ukraine, which has stirred up the global energy market, Kishida hopes to use this visit to ensure energy supply security. However, analysts point out that Kishida's visit is not limited to "energy diplomacy". In the context of international changes, strengthening relations with Gulf countries, enhancing Japan's presence in the Middle East, and hedging its influence with other major powers are also important goals of the visit. Just constrained by multiple internal and external factors, Kishida wants to achieve "ambition"

On the 15th local time, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol visited the Ukrainian capital Kiev and held talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yin Xiyue stated that South Korea will expand its aid scale and provide more military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine. However, he did not mention plans to provide assistance with weapons of destruction to Ukraine. Does Yin Xiyue's trip mean that South Korea will change its stance and provide weapons support to Ukraine? Analysis suggests that this still needs to be observed. South Korea is facing enormous pressure on the issue of providing military aid to Ukraine. Recently, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol has been making frequent diplomatic efforts without mentioning military aid plans. From July 11th to 12th local time, Yin Xiyue attended the NATO summit held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, and held meetings with leaders from 31 NATO countries, Sweden, the European Union, and Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. subsequently