Hou Youyi, the strongest candidate, has the lowest support rate! Can the Kuomintang regain its greatest electoral advantage? People's Party | Candidates | Elections

The 2024 Taiwan regional leader election is approaching. Different from the previous judgment of most people, the support rate of Hou Youyi, the candidate of the Chinese Kuomintang, has not risen sharply because of the decision of the party's recruitment on the 17th of last month, but quickly slipped from the second to the third. At the bottom, "steadily" lags behind Ke Wenzhe, the candidate of the People's Party, who was originally regarded as "studying with the prince. According to the latest poll released by Taiwan's TVBS on June 18, Ke Wenzhe's support surpassed that of DPP candidate Lai Qingde for the first time, rising to the first place.

At the same time, the electoral landscape on the island has shifted from a confrontation between the blue and green powers to a three legged confrontation between blue, green, and white.

Is it Hou Youyi's problem or the Kuomintang's problem?

The strongest candidate Hou Youyi became the "Hou Laosan" due to personal reasons. For a long time, Hou Youyi's Kuomintang faction has had an indistinct color, and his relationship with the blue camp has been ambiguous - he does not participate in the Kuomintang's internal affairs that are constantly being organized and chaotic, does not express his views on major political discourse, and only emphasizes practical work. This was a bonus point when he was the mayor of New Taipei, which helped him secure the position of candidate. However, when it came time to take another step from New Taipei to Taipei, Hou Youyi, an atypical member of the Kuomintang, became weak in his ability to maintain his integrity.

Do not want to participate in party affairs? Four years ago, Han Guoyu, the Kuomintang candidate at the time, struggled in the election campaign, while Hou Youyi only focused on his own "peaceful years" and stood idly by, disregarding his fellow party ties. Now that the protagonist has become Hou Youyi, he has also experienced the difficulty of integrating the Blue Camp. Do you want to be consistent with Terry Gou in external affairs? However, Terry Gou and Ko Wen je are getting closer and closer; Would you like to invite Wang Jinping as the campaign manager? Wang Jinping politely refused; Want to stand on the same stage as Han Guoyu to canvass votes? Han Guoyu urged, "At the appropriate time.".

Don't want to do political discourse? Unlike local mayors who only need to focus on a corner, regional leader elections face a larger number of voters and a wider range of questions to answer.Dealing with cross-strait relations has always been an important addition for the Kuomintang, which is different from the Democratic Progressive Party and the People's Party. Moreover, this is also an unavoidable election issue.

The stumbling pace of Hou Youyi's election also reflects the chronic illness of the Kuomintang, which is "an insider in the civil war and an outsider in the foreign war". Even when surrounded by strong enemies, they still clash with each other. On the other hand, compared to the Democratic Progressive Party, although the party's factions are not less diverse and its interests are not as entangled as the Kuomintang, it is able to achieve consistency in the election and external relations.

Do you want to change Hou Youyi? Who else can I replace with?

Nowadays, the Kuomintang candidates have unprecedentedly fallen to third place, causing many voices of "changing marquises" in the blue camp. According to the party's internal procedures, the Kuomintang held a full representative meeting on July 23 to confirm next year's candidates. In theory, there is a possibility of the Kuomintang Central Committee changing sides before this.

Whether or not to replace Hou Youyi, this scene reminds the outside world of the scene of "changing pillars" within the Kuomintang in the 2016 election. In July 2015, the Kuomintang National Assembly nominated Hong Xiuzhu as the regional nominee for 2016.

Regarding the voice of "changing marquis", Hou Youyi stated on June 15th at the press conference of the War Police Support Marquis film that as long as it is the right thing, "we must move forward and never retreat." This is seen by the outside world as a response to the questioning.

One analysis suggests that since being successfully re elected as the mayor of New Taipei last year, Hou Youyi has indeed become a popular choice among the blue camp. After seeing off the founder of Hon Hai Group, Terry Gou, there may not be anyone in the Kuomintang who is stronger than Hou Youyi, and Chu Lilun has also stated that he will not participate in next year's elections. Moreover, with the warning of "changing pillars" inside and the aggressive Ko Wen je outside, the Kuomintang leaders who have always been skilled in calculation may not be willing to come back to this muddy water.

Of course, Taiwan's elections are fraught with twists and turns, and there is still more than half a year until the actual vote, and it is far from the time when the dust settles. The Hong Kong Central Review Agency believes that it is still in the early or early stages of elections. If the problems exposed by Hou You yi can be highly valued and vigilant, and gradually effectively overcome or resolved, it is not impossible for Hou You yi to lead the development of the election from weak to strong.

Can the Kuomintang still maintain its second largest party?

Once upon a time, even after losing power, the Kuomintang remained the second largest party on the island. However, as generations change, the position of this second largest party is no longer as stable.

A few years ago, then Taipei Mayor Ko Wen je founded the People's Party and gradually formed the current tripartite situation of blue, green, and white. According to a public opinion survey in Taiwan, the support of the People's Party for political parties is around 22%, which is already on par with the Kuomintang and even slightly exceeds it; And Ko Wen je's approval rating is also higher than Hou You yi's. This indicates that the People's Party may not only play a crucial minority role in the future.

According to the analysis of the media on the island, different from the short-lived dark green "Taiwan independence" party "power of the times", the main supporters of the people's party are young and middle-aged voters under the age of 40. The latter hates the endless blue-green struggle and has the mentality of "it is not safe to choose green and reluctant to choose blue". However, the people's party has given these people with unclear political spectrum a third choice.

Faced with such a severe situation, the Kuomintang needs to make a difference and demonstrate its distinctiveness with the Democratic Progressive Party and the People's Party. This is not only for the 2024 elections, but also for the future of this century old party on the island.

You must know that the people of Taiwan have personally experienced the cross-strait relations from large-scale exchanges and cooperation to tense confrontation and fierce battles in recent years. They all hope that the Taiwan Strait can avoid war and seek peace and restart dialogue and consultation. Therefore, the ability to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait will become an important consideration for voters to choose which political party to choose for a long time in the future.

This is actually the biggest advantage of the Kuomintang. The good news is that even under immense pressure from the Democratic Progressive Party authorities, the Kuomintang Central Committee still insists on forming a delegation to attend the Strait Forum.

It is obvious that this statement is not only intended for the mainland, but also for the people on the island.