Not just an "energy diplomacy", depth | Kishida's first visit to the Middle East during his tenure | Kishida's first visit to the Middle East during his tenure

The diplomatic relay race of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is currently underway. After attending the NATO summit and the Japan Europe summit in Europe, he immediately moved to the Middle East and visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar from July 16th to 19th.

This is Kishida's first visit to the Middle East during his tenure, and it is also Japan's Prime Minister's second visit to the Middle East after more than three years.

"Energy diplomacy" is considered the key word for this trip. Due to factors such as the prolonged crisis in Ukraine, which has stirred up the global energy market, Kishida hopes to use this visit to ensure energy supply security. However, analysts point out that Kishida's visit is not limited to "energy diplomacy". In the context of international changes, strengthening relations with Gulf countries, enhancing Japan's presence in the Middle East, and hedging its influence with other major powers are also important goals of the visit. However, due to multiple internal and external factors, it is not easy for Kishida to achieve his ambition.

Tighten the energy "safety valve"

Based on comprehensive reports and analysis from various parties, seeking energy supply security is considered the primary goal of Kishida's trip.

Japanese media reported that although the Kishida government plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, Japan is resource poor and still heavily relies on fossil fuels, with 90% of its oil imported from the Middle East. "The region is crucial to Japan," said Shuji Kasaka, a member of the board of directors of the Japan Energy Economy Research Institute.

The three Gulf countries visited by Kishida this time are all major energy suppliers in Japan. Among them, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are Japan's largest and second largest crude oil suppliers, while Qatar is an important source of liquefied natural gas.

As the international and regional situation changes and affects the energy landscape, Japan, which heavily relies on energy imports, has developed a strong sense of insecurity.

Firstly, the crisis in Ukraine continues, with the West imposing sanctions on Russia, leading to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Japan, as a major energy importing country, is facing enormous pressure and is even more concerned about the weakening of its economic recovery momentum as a result.

Secondly, the Middle East region has experienced a wave of turmoil and political changes. The separation and balance of relationships and positions among regional countries may have a long-term impact on the stability of the energy market.

A series of regional changes are attracting Japan's attention: Saudi Arabia and Iran are turning enemies into friends under China's mediation; The attractiveness of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is increasing, and Iran has become a member of the organization. Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also moving towards SCO; In dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries did not turn to the United States and the West and supported Ukraine against Russia. On the contrary, they hold a neutral stance, even advancing and retreating with Russia on energy supply issues. At the beginning of this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia made a decision to reduce production, which is believed to affect international oil prices.

Sun Degang, director and researcher of the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East energy export has changed from mainly facing Asia to facing Asia and Europe. In this context, Japan needs to consider long-term energy security issues.

For a period of time, the Kishida government has been very concerned about the Middle East in order to install a "safety valve" for energy supply. Last March, Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fang was visiting the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye, calling on the United Arab Emirates to increase crude oil production. In June this year, Japan and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries resumed a high-level dialogue that had been stagnant for many years, discussing the prospects of global energy supply and demand.

Kishida had planned to visit the Middle East last summer, but had to postpone the trip because of COVID-19 infection.

Media outlets such as the Japan Times pointed out that due to various factors such as the situation in Ukraine, the prospects of the international energy market are unclear. Kishida intends to seize the opportunity of his first Middle East behavior after taking office, exchange views with Gulf leaders on energy policies, call on the other party to take measures to stabilize the international energy market, and reiterate the importance of stabilizing the energy supply chain.

According to Lv Yaodong, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "energy diplomacy" has been at the core of Japan's Middle East strategy since the war. Especially with the ever-changing international situation, from the perspective of energy security, the Kishida government needs to strengthen its layout and planning.

Not limited to "energy diplomacy"

Under the international situation, deepening relations with Gulf countries is another major goal of Kishida's trip.

Kishida emphasized that the significance of the trip to the Middle East is not just about energy diplomacy. Japan will also establish historic diplomatic relations with oil producing countries in the Middle East and make greater contributions in complex international situations.

The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will hold talks with the leaders of the three countries to discuss a wide range of topics, including regional and international affairs such as the Ukraine crisis, as well as bilateral relations. Kishida will also promote the maintenance and strengthening of a free and open international order based on the rule of law, in accordance with the results of the G7 Hiroshima Summit.

According to sources from the Japanese government, during Kishida's first visit to Saudi Arabia, he will hold talks with the Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Budawi, and propose a ministerial level dialogue between the two sides in the future.

Regarding this proposal, Lv Yaodong interpreted that Japan hopes to restart ministerial level strategic dialogue with the Gulf Cooperation Council. On the one hand, it demonstrates Japan's high importance to energy supply issues and its intention to respond to possible international changes from a longer-term strategic perspective, in order to ensure the security of long-term energy supply from a political and diplomatic perspective. On the other hand, Japan may also attempt to use ministerial level talks to start with energy issues and become more involved in politics, security, and other issues in the Middle East.

In terms of economy, trade, and energy, Kishida plans to strengthen cooperation with Gulf countries in mineral and new energy technologies.

According to the Nikkei Asia website, Kishida will discuss issues such as minerals and new energy technologies with the leaders of the three countries. Japan and Saudi Arabia are expected to reach an agreement on jointly investing in the development of rare earth mines.

It is reported that Kishida will lead a corporate delegation to visit the Middle East to promote Japan's expertise and technology in green and renewable energy, and promote cooperation between the two sides.

According to the website of the Gulf Times in the United Arab Emirates, in addition to energy cooperation, Kishida's visit is expected to strengthen cooperation in areas such as tourism, culture, science, space, and education.

Among them, Japan and the United Arab Emirates will issue a joint statement on environmental protection, laying the groundwork for the United Nations Climate Conference to be held in the UAE later this year. In addition, since signing an agreement with the United Arab Emirates in May this year on the export of defense equipment and technology transfer - which is the first time Japan has signed this agreement with a Middle Eastern country - Kishida will further strengthen cooperation in the field of security through this visit.

Lv Yaodong pointed out that although Japan's diplomacy towards the Middle East is centered around "energy diplomacy", it is no longer limited to this, but gradually develops from the energy and economic aspects to the political and security aspects, attempting to highlight its presence in the political and security fields. The Kishida government's Middle East policy continues this diplomatic rhetoric, largely due to considerations of hedging China's influence, especially China's successful mediation of Saudi Arabia's resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran.

Sun Degang stated that the influence of China and India in the Middle East is increasing day by day. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Modi also visited the United Arab Emirates. These trends have made Japan feel anxious and actively layout the Middle East.

Of course, from the perspective of Middle Eastern countries, there are also practical needs for cooperation with Japan.

Under the global trend of promoting energy transformation, Gulf oil producing countries are also seeking to change their reliance on traditional energy as a single economic structure and shift towards economic diversification with a focus on technological transformation and global supply chains.

"Middle Eastern countries hope to achieve economic diversification, including expanding oil buyers, strengthening energy cooperation, and attracting investment, rather than putting eggs in one basket." Sun Degang said that introducing Japan is an effort for Middle Eastern countries to achieve economic diversification, which is in line with their development interests.

Difficult to exert influence

Analysts believe that Kishida's visit to the Middle East also has a profound goal - to continue enhancing Japan's influence in the region and seeking political power status, following the footsteps left by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The Middle East is not only the lifeline of Japan's energy security, but also an important component of advancing its great power strategy. During his tenure, Abe actively managed the Middle East and hoped to make a difference in Middle East affairs, including attempting to mediate US Iran relations.

Soliman, Director of the Strategic Technology and Cybersecurity Program at the Washington Institute for Middle East Studies, said that Kishida is inheriting Abe's diplomatic legacy - significantly enhancing Japan's position as a strategic partner in the Middle East during Abe's tenure. Kishida also intends to position Japan as a reliable partner for growth and development in the Gulf region.

Regarding this, Lv Yaodong believes that although Japan regards itself as a strategic partner of Middle Eastern countries, it cannot conceal its true role and intentions in the Middle East. Firstly, Japan serves as an exporter of values and rules to regulate and shape Middle Eastern countries. Secondly, attempting to politically rally and persuade Middle Eastern countries to stand in the Western camp led by the United States, and recognizing Japan's role as a leader in maintaining the current international order. Once again, expand one's own participation and even influence in leading regional and international affairs, and achieve the established goal of pursuing a political power.

In Sun Degang's view, due to multiple constraints, it may not be easy for Kishida to achieve diplomatic goals in the Middle East.

Firstly, Japan adheres to economic pragmatism and values diplomacy towards the Middle East, while also relying on the United States for security, resulting in contradictions and paradoxes between them.

Secondly, Japan is not a comprehensive superpower in the Middle East, but a science oriented superpower with strong economic and trade capabilities and weak politics and military capabilities.

Thirdly, Japan has not broken away from the narrow mindset of traditional competition among major powers for power and influence in the Middle East region.

Fourthly, some Middle Eastern countries have reservations about Japan's policies, believing that Japan views the development model of Middle Eastern countries with colored glasses and looks down on the Middle East from top to bottom rather than at the same level.

"These factors are likely to limit Japan's influence in the Middle East region."