Want to catch up with China and Russia in this matter?, Depth | Biden visits Vietnam next month | September 10th visit Vietnam | Biden

After Biden was eager to show off earlier, the White House announced on the 28th that President Biden would visit Vietnam on September 10th.

Since the beginning of this year, senior US officials have visited Hanoi one after another, and Biden's visit will push the US diplomatic offensive towards Vietnam to a climax.

Analysts believe that in order to serve the needs of competition with China and promote the "Indo Pacific strategy", Biden's visit seeks to upgrade US Vietnam relations and work with Vietnam to balance China's influence in the region. However, due to differences in political system, ideology, and Vietnam's balanced and independent diplomatic path, even if the United States tries to win over, the space for further closer relations between the two countries is limited.

Ideal object of attraction

According to a statement by press secretary Karin Jean Pierre posted on the White House website, Biden will meet with General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong, and other important Vietnamese leaders during his visit to Vietnam to discuss how to further deepen cooperation between the two countries.

The statement stated that the leaders of the two countries will explore opportunities to promote the growth of Vietnam's economy with a focus on technology and driven by innovation, and discuss how to expand the connections between the two peoples through educational exchanges and labor development plans, address climate change, and promote regional peace, prosperity, and stability.

According to the schedule, Biden is expected to visit Hanoi after attending the G20 summit in India.

Since the beginning of this year, American politicians have frequently appeared in Vietnam. From Vice President Harris to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, from Minister of Finance Yellen to Trade Representative Dai Qi, and now upgraded to the level of head of state, President Biden personally led the visit.

Why can a Southeast Asian country with limited population, land, and economic size attract high-level visits from the United States?

One of the practical backgrounds is that this year's US Vietnam relationship coincides with a commemorative milestone - the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive partnership between the two countries.

In 2013, during the Obama administration, the two countries formed a comprehensive partnership to promote cooperation in areas such as public health, aid to the Vietnam Coast Guard, and anti transnational crime. The US hopes to seize the opportunity of the 10th anniversary to elevate the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership level. This move is believed to be aimed at catching up with Hanoi and achieving deeper relationships with Beijing and Moscow.

Another potential background is that Vietnam is seen as an ideal partner worth wooing in the United States' strategic layout of advancing the Indo Pacific strategy to balance China.

"The United States has regarded China as its primary competitor and a challenge to its global hegemony, so it is seeking allies and partners to balance China on a global scale. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is an ideal target," said Zhao Weihua, director of the China Perimeter Research Center at Fudan University and professor at the Institute of International Studies.

Firstly, Vietnam has the strongest military strength among ASEAN countries and is also regarded by the United States as the country with the strongest willingness to balance China, due to territorial and maritime rights disputes and complex historical disputes between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea.

Secondly, its strategic position is important. Vietnam's Jinlan Bay and the Philippines' Subic are known as the South China Sea Double Key.

Professor Wang Yong from the School of International Relations at Peking University and Director of the Center for American Studies at Peking University pointed out that in order to compete with China and contain China's strategic needs, the United States wants to support some countries around China, strengthen relations with these countries in various fields, and balance China's influence.

In the eyes of the United States, Vietnam holds a very important position in its regional and international strategies.

On the one hand, Vietnam is located around China, with historical grievances and territorial disputes with China, and its interests are not entirely aligned with those of China.

On the other hand, the United States wants to use Vietnam to promote the so-called "Indo Pacific strategy", especially in the economic field, to promote so-called "friendly outsourcing", transfer some production lines in China and orders to Chinese companies to Vietnam, and build a "de Chinese" supply chain.

Upgrade partnership?

A highly anticipated feature of Biden's visit to Vietnam next month is the possibility of the US and Vietnam signing a strategic partnership agreement.

In April this year, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam, he expressed his desire to deepen bilateral relations.

In the eyes of the two scholars, there is a high possibility of both sides upgrading their partnership this time.

"Both sides have the willingness and should be able to achieve the goal," said Wang Yong.

For the United States, due to the strategic need to balance China's power, it intends to further support Vietnam and strengthen the relationship between the two countries.

For Vietnam, the United States is the world's largest economy and hopes to further expand its market share in the United States, attract more investment from the United States, obtain technology transfer, and engage in more scientific and technological cooperation to promote Vietnam's economic development.

On the South China Sea issue, Vietnam also hopes to leverage external forces such as the United States to balance China's influence.

Looking at the overall context, there have been significant changes in the regional and international landscape. As the relationship between major powers such as China and the United States changes, other secondary relationships will also change accordingly.

Wang Yong further pointed out that if the United States and Vietnam become strategic partners, it will mean that both sides attach more importance to each other's relationship, and the level and importance of each other in their own foreign relations will increase. At the same time, the two countries will develop comprehensive relations, no longer limited to political, economic and trade fields, but will expand to strengthen military and security cooperation.

"The escalation of US Vietnam relations has been brewing for several years, but has been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic. During Biden's visit, there is a high possibility of both sides achieving an escalation of their relationship." Zhao Weihua said that this will mean that the existing military cooperation between the two sides, especially intelligence exchange, will become closer. However, due to the strategic nature of the US Vietnam relationship to some extent, even an upgrade is only a nominal upgrade and will not result in significant changes in substance.

However, the outside world has also noticed that although the United States has been seeking to strengthen its relationship with Vietnam, Hanoi always maintains a cautious attitude towards Washington's goodwill. As for Biden's claim that Vietnamese leaders hope to escalate relations, it is unclear whether it is a self subsidy or a genuine matter.

Regarding this, Zhao Weihua interpreted that maintaining balance between China and the United States and not leaning towards either side is Vietnam's diplomatic strategy. It believes that only in this way can Vietnam create the best international environment and maximize its own interests. Therefore, Vietnam has concerns about becoming a strategic partner with the United States and is concerned that it may stimulate China. In fact, Vietnam prefers to maintain a substantial strategic relationship with the United States, but there is no need to take on this reputation.

In addition to the attention grabbing issue of escalating relations, Zhao Weihua expects that Biden's visit will also revolve around the topic of China, as China is the main driving force behind Biden's visit to Vietnam.

For example, on the South China Sea issue, Biden is expected to reiterate the United States' support for the legitimate rights of Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, and provoke Sino Vietnamese relations.

In terms of supply chain issues, it is expected to emphasize the establishment of resilient and risk-free supply chains, and instigate Vietnam to decouple from China.

In addition, infrastructure construction may also be the key topic Biden talked about, emphasizing environmental protection, green infrastructure, etc., to counter China's "the Belt and Road" initiative.

Not willing to be a chess piece

More than half a century ago, the Vietnam War led to a confrontation between the United States and Vietnam. Now, with the profound evolution of the international landscape, former enemies have become partners and are also preparing to tighten ties. There are even extreme claims that with the support of the United States, Vietnam will become the second Philippines.

Analysts do not agree with this.

In Wang Yong's view, due to mutual needs between the two sides, the US Vietnam relationship is expected to further develop, but it will also be limited by some factors.

Firstly, there are differences between the two sides in terms of political system, ideology, values, etc.

The development of foreign relations by the United States is greatly influenced by ideological factors, and it will use human rights issues to intervene in Vietnamese politics, using some Vietnamese forces to instigate the so-called color revolution. For the sake of national political security, Vietnam will remain vigilant in engaging with the United States.

In addition, the historical trauma and painful memories of the Vietnam War will also make Vietnam wary of the United States.

Secondly, Chinese factors will have an impact.

China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, and China also maintains important relations with ASEAN, with Vietnam being an important member of ASEAN. Vietnam will consider China's feelings and reactions when developing relations with the United States, and will not approach the United States too closely in sensitive areas such as military and security, such as allowing the United States to establish military bases in Vietnam.

"More importantly, Vietnam pursues a balanced diplomacy as a major country, striving to maintain balance between China and the United States, and maintaining an independent foreign policy. It does not want to become a vassal of the United States or a pawn against China," said Wang Yong.

Zhao Weihua believes that in the current environment, the space for further development of Vietnam US relations is quite limited.

Firstly, due to China's policy of promoting good neighborliness and friendship, China Vietnam relations are very close. Despite the South China Sea dispute, the two countries maintain positive interaction and communicate differences through various channels. Under the trend of stable and friendly relations between China and Vietnam, it is difficult for the US Vietnam relationship to get closer.

Impressively, after the closure of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China last year, Nguyen Phuc Trong was the first foreign highest leader to visit China, highlighting the traditional friendship between the two countries of "comrades and brothers" and the strategic significance of a community with a shared future.

Secondly, Vietnam's 2019 National Defense White Paper clearly proposed the "Four Nos" policy, which includes not participating in military alliances, not uniting one country against another, not allowing foreign countries to establish military bases or use Vietnamese territory against other countries, and not using or threatening to use force in international relations.

Thirdly, maintaining a moderate balance or relatively equidistant diplomacy between China and the United States is Vietnam's consistent policy and will not be easily changed.

In fact, although Vietnam has been getting closer to the United States in recent years, it still has some reservations, especially in preventing the United States from launching color revolutions and engaging in peaceful evolution under changing circumstances.

"No matter how the US Vietnam relationship develops, Vietnam will also handle its relationship with China well and pay attention to the balance between the US Vietnam relationship and the China Vietnam relationship," said Zhao Weihua.

Vietnam once described its diplomatic style as "bamboo style diplomacy", which refers to being as flexible, intelligent, decisive, and dignified as bamboo. From this perspective, wooing Vietnam to contain China and distancing China Vietnam relations may only be wishful thinking on the part of the United States.