What is the future of Thailand's political situation?, Depth | Pita, the dark horse, is out of the prime minister election in Thailand | Pita is out

On the 19th, the Thai parliament opened the agenda for the second round of Prime Minister elections. Pita, who became the only candidate for prime minister in the first round of elections but did not reach the top, originally intended to launch a second attack on the position of prime minister, but ultimately lost his candidacy due to opposition from lawmakers. At this point, Pita's campaign journey has basically come to an end, and external attention will now shift to the actions of the Thai party and conservatives.

Stop running for prime minister

The general election in Thailand does not directly elect the Prime Minister of the government, but rather elects members of parliament and political parties, and then the Prime Minister is elected by the parliament. The parliament is divided into two houses, with the upper house consisting of 250 members appointed by the military and the lower house consisting of 500 members elected.

In the parliamentary elections held in May this year, the Far Progressive Party led by Pita won 151 seats, becoming the largest party in the House of Commons. He subsequently formed an eight party alliance with seven other political parties, including the Thai Party, the second largest party in the House of Commons, with a total of 312 seats and an absolute advantage in the House of Commons. On July 11th, as Prime Minister Bayou, representing the military, announced the end of his political career, Pita became the only candidate for Prime Minister.

However, these favorable factors did not help Pita achieve his "prime minister dream" - due to conservative upper house members generally opposing radical proposals such as the Far Progressive Party's amendment of the "offending monarchy law", Pita only received 324 votes in the first round of voting, more than 50 votes short of being elected as prime minister.

However, Pita did not lose heart. On the 17th, he announced that he had received a second nomination from the Eight Party Alliance and was ready to pass the level again on the 19th. However, it can be said that the start of the campaign was unsuccessful. On the 19th, Congress debated whether the repeated nomination of Pita violated the rules of parliamentary proceedings. As a result, the legislators opposed Pita's re nomination with a score of 394 votes to 312 votes. This means that Pita cannot participate in the second round of voting.

Some analysts believe that this 42 year old political newcomer with a Harvard education background has previously stated that if he "loses twice", he will voluntarily give up and have the Thai party nominate a candidate for prime minister and participate in subsequent voting. This time Pita's "elimination" means that his campaign path is basically over.

Yu Haiqiu, Director of the Thailand Research Institute of the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, China South Asia and Southeast Asia Research Institute, stated that this result is very in line with Thailand's political and legal customs, which is to cancel candidate qualifications through legal means. In fact, even if Pita ran for re-election, he is likely to have no chance of making a comeback. Because in terms of the current election situation in Thailand, it is not about who to vote for, but rather about not allowing Pita to be elected first.

Yu Haiqiu said that in the view of conservative forces in Thailand, the Far Progressive Party's proposals to amend the "Offensive to the Monarchy Law" are too intense. If conservatives compromise, it will not only affect this election, but also mean that the power gained by the Thai military since taking power in 2014 will be further limited, and its power will be marginalized.

The outside world has noticed that the Far Progressive Party proposed last week to amend Article 272 of the Constitution, depriving military appointed upper and lower house members of the power to jointly elect the Prime Minister. At the same time, after his first defeat, Pita did not abandon his reform proposals, but only expressed his willingness to "slow down the reform agenda" if elected.

Zhou Shixin, Deputy Researcher at the Asia Pacific Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, stated that the Far Progressive Party is considered the party most likely to challenge current domestic and foreign policies among all political forces. It is not as relatively moderate as the Thai Party, which has caused many political obstacles for the Far Progressive Party.

In addition, judicial issues have also cast a shadow over Pita's path of competition. On the 19th, the Thai Constitutional Court announced the official filing of the constitutional interpretation application filed by the Thai Election Commission regarding Pita's qualifications as a member of parliament, and Pita's position as a member of parliament was suspended. Previously, it was determined through investigation that Pita still held shares in a media company when registering as a member of parliament, which violated election law regulations. But Pita argued that the radio station in question had been shut down in 2007, and his stake in the radio station was inherited from his father's estate.

Zhou Shixin believes that the court's ruling will become a political stain on Pita, causing a blow to its image and reputation. Several judicial investigations involving him may even become reasons for the future separation of the Eight Party Alliance from him.

How to proceed with the political situation?

Two analysts believe that as Pita is rejected from the second round of voting, there are several aspects worth observing next.

One is that candidates from the Thai party are expected to step onto the front stage.

The Thai party is the second largest party in the House of Commons, with 141 seats. The party may propose alternative candidates, including former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter, Bedongdan Sinawa, real estate tycoon Seta, and former Attorney General Chagson.

Bedongdan previously stated that the Thai Party has clearly stated that it will nominate Seth as the candidate for Prime Minister, as Thailand's economic issues urgently need to be resolved. At the age of 60, Seta is a real estate tycoon and is also considered one of the most powerful and influential figures in the party.

However, there are disagreements among the outside world regarding whether the new candidate can secure a victory.

The first viewpoint suggests that as a member of the Eight Party Alliance and an ally of the Far Progressive Party, the Thai party will still not be favored by conservatives, and its candidates may struggle to reach the threshold of crossing the line.

The second view is that the Thai party will seek the support of conservative forces, such as negotiating with the National Power Party, where Thai Deputy Prime Minister Bhave is located. In addition, Thai journalists captured a scene of Seta and Proud Thai Party leader Anutin watching the Premier League in the UK, and rumors of a back-to-back alliance between the two parties spread widely.

The third viewpoint holds that there is a possibility of the disintegration of the Eight Party Alliance in the future, especially when binding the Far Progressive Party to the Thai party would hinder its achievement of political goals.

In Zhou Shixin's view, the Thai Party is more moderate than the Far Progressive Party, with relatively mature policy concepts and some connections in the House of Lords. The chances of winning the election are higher for the candidates it launches, for example, by wooing the proud Thai party, known as the "king maker", to establish the winning bid.

Yu Haiqiu believes that in the past two years, there has been more contact between the Thai Party and the National Power Party, and the positions of both sides are also moving towards the center. As for the possibility of the split and combination of the eight party alliance, the trend is relatively clear, but it is expected that the Thai party will not engage in "betrayal" of the alliance temporarily, as this will lead to injustice. "It must cleverly handle alliance relationships and consider whether to choose another path while observing."

The second question is whether the conservative forces will take advantage of the situation.

At present, Southeast Asian media have spread rumors that Zimbabwe may be nominated as a candidate for prime minister by the conservative camp. Zhou Shixin believes that Dewey can gain support from around 200 out of 250 seats in the upper house and will seek political influence in the lower house. However, Barbados may be cautious in its candidacy, fearing criticism of Thailand's "democratic political flaws" from the outside world, and therefore will consider the timing and manner of its "attack".

Bloomberg stated that if the military regains control of the country, it may trigger protests from supporters of pro democracy groups, and any minority government may collapse in a vote of no confidence.

Yu Haiqiu pointed out that Dewey portrayed himself as a person who could bridge the gap between conservative and progressive camps. At the beginning of this year, Ba Yu joined the new party and formed two forces with Ba Wei. But these two forces are not dispersed, but rather "long bets" to increase the probability of winning.

Thirdly, is there a possibility of instability in the Thai political situation.

Yu Haiqiu noticed that after Pita's "first round defeat", there have been protests and demonstrations on the streets of Thailand. With Pita being eliminated, there is a high possibility of local street politics in Thailand, which will bring chaos in the short term. The government, out of respect for public opinion, may adopt a more conservative stance and call on all parties to exercise restraint instead of taking mandatory intervention.

The fourth question is whether the political stalemate in Thailand will persist for a long time.

Yu Haiqiu believes that the political stalemate may last for a long time. Because currently no force has an absolute advantage, the balance is difficult to break.

Zhou Shixin believes that in the future, no matter what, the Thai government will be a multi-party coalition government. The Far Progressive Party has previously relinquished its position as Speaker of the House of Commons. If it were to give up the position of Prime Minister and compete for it again, it would be like a futile return, and it is bound to have higher expectations for the allocation of important positions in the future government. The Thai party needs to handle and balance various relationships. Conservatives are also moving forward in entanglement and embarrassment. The ongoing game between all parties reflects the difficulty of political change in Thailand. If the Prime Minister still faces difficulties in giving birth after several rounds of voting, a neutral third party will have to be introduced in accordance with the constitution, allowing all parties to vote and decide.

Challenges in domestic and foreign affairs

Two analysts believe that regardless of which Prime Minister presides over Thailand, they will face a series of domestic and diplomatic challenges.

Yu Haiqiu said that in terms of politics, if the conservative faction holds power, it must comply with the people's demands for innovation and change. This demand has been ignited by the political forces represented by Pita. Currently, the social environment in Thailand is undergoing changes, with a clear trend of fewer children and an aging population. The public's attitudes towards the royal family are also becoming more diverse. Therefore, the demands of the public for the cancellation of compulsory military service and other measures are real and will not weaken. It is difficult to maintain national governance if conservative forces do not actively respond to public concerns.

On the contrary, if the reformists come to power, they must also consider the demands of the conservatives, otherwise they cannot ensure stable governance. When it comes to choosing the path of national development, it requires both perseverance and compromise.

Zhou Shixin said that in the future, the ruling authorities need to break free from the chaotic situation caused by diverse political ideologies and improve their ability to govern the country. If a weak government constrained by Congress is born in the future, then the ability to use fiscal resources to carry out construction and implement various development plans may be inadequate.

In terms of economy, due to the unclear political situation in Thailand, foreign investment in Thailand may be affected and cannot make large-scale investments in infrastructure and other fields. This may drag down Thailand's economic development and affect recovery.

Bloomberg pointed out that during and after the COVID-19 epidemic, Thailand's economic expansion lagged behind that of emerging market countries in Southeast Asia. The country's political struggles may harm the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Therefore, how to stabilize the political situation, eliminate external concerns, and revitalize the market is a daunting task.

In terms of diplomacy, in the context of the United States engaging in great power competition, Thailand's pursuit of a balanced diplomatic strategy is also a major test. Yu Haiqiu believes that no matter who is elected as the Prime Minister of Thailand, they will consider the relationship between China and Thailand, the United States and Thailand comprehensively. China Thailand relations are expected to maintain a stable and positive development momentum.Standing at a new historical starting point, both sides will endow "China Thailand One Family" with a new era connotation.

Zhou Shixin said that cooperation between the United States and Thailand in the military field is stronger than in the political field. Although Thailand is an ally of the United States, it adheres to flexible diplomacy and maintains balanced development relations with other countries. The United States has found many problems that cannot be relied on by Thailand. Last year, US President Biden also missed an informal meeting of Thai APEC leaders to attend his granddaughter's wedding. It can be said that the United States and Thailand maintain a cooperative relationship, but without investing more resources, it is also difficult to use Thailand as an important lever to balance China.