Two high-ranking US officials will appear in the Asia Pacific at the same time! Is the journey of gathering here again?, Depth | Appear in Asia Pacific at the same time next week | Austin | Antony Blinken

Next week, two senior US officials will appear in the Asia Pacific region at the same time - Secretary of State Antony Blinken will start a trip to Tonga, New Zealand and Australia from the 24th. Austin, the defense minister, visited Papua New Guinea from the 26th and "joined forces" with Antony Blinken in Australia.

Analysis suggests that the United States' renewed efforts in the South Pacific are aimed at strengthening allies and partnerships, and cooperating with its "Indo Pacific strategy" to engage in great power competition. However, despite unprecedented efforts by the United States to woo Pacific island countries, the results have been minimal. Both Australia and New Zealand tend to be more pragmatic in their diplomacy, while the other adheres to the principle of independence and autonomy, and may not necessarily be obedient to the United States. There is a huge question mark about whether a "journey of gathering" can be successful.

More Americans are directly entering the battle

It will be Antony Blinken's fourth appearance in the Asia Pacific region in nearly three months.

In May, US President Biden cancelled his scheduled trip to Papua New Guinea and Australia due to domestic debt ceiling negotiations. In PNG's disappointment, Antony Blinken "took the place" to visit the country. In June, Antony Blinken visited China, which was the first visit to China by a US Secretary of State in five years. In early this month, he also went to Indonesia to attend a series of ASEAN foreign ministers' meetings.

American media pointed out that as China's influence continues to increase, the United States hopes to consolidate its position in the Asia Pacific region. This is Antony Blinken's 12th trip to the Asia Pacific in two years, and the trip is still very tight.

He plans to go to Tonga before the 26th to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new US embassy in the country. This will be Antony Blinken's first visit to this South Pacific island country. On the 27th, he will discuss priority issues with partners in Wellington, New Zealand. Afterwards, visit Australia.

While Antony Blinken launched a diplomatic offensive against the Asia Pacific, the US military also focused on the vast South Pacific. Austin will embark on his eighth Asia Pacific trip during his tenure.

He will visit Papua New Guinea on the 26th, becoming the first US Defense Minister to visit the country during his tenure. On the 28th, Austin will "meet" with Antony Blinken in Australia, attend the "2+2" meeting between the US and Australia, and watch the "bodyguard sabre" joint military exercise between the US and Australia and 11 other partner countries. The United States and Australia may explore cooperation on nuclear submarines and modernization of combat readiness under the "Okus" cooperation mechanism.

Chen Hong, Executive Director of the Asia Pacific Research Center at East China Normal University, said that the United States is targeting the South Pacific for several purposes.

Firstly, at the strategic level, the United States aims to build a lever for the "Indo Pacific strategy" in the region and cooperate with it to engage in great power competition. The previous approach was to rely on Australia to exert influence in the region, but now it is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Australia.

"Especially no matter how Australia tries to intimidate and lure, it has not been able to obstruct the development of relations between the Solomon Islands and China. Therefore, the United States is now taking more direct action, reflecting its strategic anxiety."

Secondly, at the military level, the United States hopes to strengthen military manipulation and control over the local area through military exercises such as the "Guardian Saber".

In Chen Hong's view, in the past, the above-mentioned military exercises were mainly conducted by the United States and Australia, but recently the number of participants has been continuously expanding, highlighting the United States' intention to build Australia into a military strategic axis south of the Pacific, dragging neighboring countries into a US led security and military track.

Zhou Fangyin, Vice President of Guangdong Institute of International Strategy, believes that the visit of the United States is first to "show off its posture", second to "show off its muscles", and third to "lay the groundwork".

So this time, the United States also demonstrated its stance of valuing Pacific island countries through several "first visits".

"Show off your muscles" is because you want to demonstrate your presence in the region through routine military exercises, "Okus" and other regional security cooperation structures, in order to prove your strength and arouse the demand of regional countries for US security cooperation.

At last year's first summit, Biden brought 12 Pacific Island leaders to Washington, announced the first Pacific Island Partnership Strategy, and announced an additional $810 million investment in the region, but the results seemed to be lackluster over the year. "So Antony Blinken and Austin hope to communicate with the island countries to understand their ideas and prepare for the upcoming summit."

Each half has its own highlights

The public opinion believes that the four stops visited by the two American officials each have their own highlights.

In the first half of the visit to Pacific island countries, one can observe how the United States views and defines cooperation between China and Pacific island countries, as well as whether there has been substantial progress in cooperation between the United States and these countries.

In Tonga, the first destination of Antony Blinken's visit, the new US embassy will be completed, which is another US embassy in the island country after the reopening of the US embassy in Solomon Islands earlier this year, and is regarded by many foreign media as part of "confronting China's influence".

Chen Hong believes that the symbolic significance of this move by the United States is greater than its actual effect, mainly to strengthen its presence in the local area. But the embassy may become an empty shell, making it difficult to have a substantial impact in the field of foreign policy. Because the United States has very few expatriates in Tonga, investment and assistance are also very weak, and sending personnel to the embassy faces cost constraints. In the end, it is inevitable that it will become an emergency institution for treating headaches and foot pain.

In Papua New Guinea, where Austin is about to visit, the two countries will discuss the next steps after signing a defense cooperation agreement.

This 15 year agreement was signed during Antony Blinken's visit to PNG in May, allowing the US military to station troops, ships and aircraft at six key locations in PNG for "jointly agreed activities".

Chen Hong said that these facilities include the Longbloom Joint Naval Base on Manus Island. Previously, the Australian military stationed some troops at the base, but the US military almost did not send troops, and the role of the base was not fully utilized. Nowadays, the United States wants to re-establish its military layout, and some analysts even believe that the base can form a competitive advantage with Guam to the north, indicating its unique intentions.

In the second half of the visit to New Zealand and Australia, the outside world will focus on how the United States can woo its independent partner New Zealand in the Five Eyes Alliance, as well as how to deepen cooperation with its traditional ally Australia within the framework of the Orcus.

Chen Hong said that New Zealand's independent foreign policy determines that it does not dance with the baton of the United States. Among the Five Eyes Alliance, the United States has the weakest control over New Zealand, and some even describe it as "blind at first glance.". However, since the United States has come to the South Pacific, it is inevitable that they will try to win over. Meanwhile, the New Zealand general election will be held on October 14th, and the United States also hopes to exert influence on the ruling and opposition parties in the face of political changes in New Zealand.

At the Australian station, the most significant military cooperation currently between the United States and Australia is undoubtedly nuclear submarines. According to the plan announced by Okus in March, the United States plans to sell three Virginia class nuclear powered submarines to Australia in the early 1930s, with the possibility of selling two more in the future.

Chen Hong said that Australia's own defense does not require nuclear submarines, and there is a strong call from regional countries to establish denuclearized areas. The United States disregards all "armed" allies, ultimately hoping to enhance its military delivery and long-range strike capabilities through it, and pressure the Australian side to continue to serve as a pawn in the United States' Indo Pacific strategy.

"The United States believes that it is necessary to strengthen the key role of Australia in the 'Indo Pacific strategy', shifting from emphasizing political functions in the past to focusing on military functions. This may become a highlight of the '2+2' talks," said Chen Hong.

At the Australian station, the "Escort Saber" military exercise, which was jointly conducted by 13 countries and had a total force of over 30000 troops, is also a major highlight.

The biennial "Escort Saber" exercise is the largest military exercise between the United States and Australia. This year's exercise began on July 22nd and lasted until August 4th. Countries such as Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany sent troops to participate, and the scale and scope of the exercise were the largest in history. Germany is participating for the first time.

Chen Hong said that military exercises indicate that in the context of NATO's "Asia Pacific ization", the United States has brought foreign countries from Germany and other regions to the Asia Pacific region, intending to disrupt the regional security situation and prepare for potential military actions or risky actions in the future. In China's view, defense and security cooperation between countries should be conducive to regional peace and stability, should not exacerbate tensions, should not undermine mutual trust among regional countries, and should not target any third parties.

US calculations are difficult to achieve

On the occasion of the US Pacific Island Summit last year, Deutsche Welle pointed out that in order to counter China, Washington prepared a red carpet and a US dollar to welcome island participants, making unprecedented efforts to win over Pacific island countries. Has the "effort" of the United States been rewarded in the past year? Can the United States return as expected during this visit?

Zhou Fangyin believes that it cannot be said that the United States has achieved nothing. For example, the promise to open an embassy in an island country has been fulfilled, and more foreign affairs agencies will be established in the future. For example, "free association agreements" with some countries have also been renewed. In addition, the United States has also made progress in the field of institutional construction, which it excels at. In the next step, while focusing on military security cooperation with island countries, the United States will also shift its focus to infrastructure cooperation and education and training, using both hardware and software to hedge against China's influence.

But at the same time, the shortcomings of the United States are also very obvious. The biggest problem is that the United States carries political self-interest in competition with major powers, and its impure motives have alerted regional countries. Its "call and lecture style" diplomacy towards island countries did not make them feel treated equally. In addition, funds from the United States are often invested in batches, concentrated in three or four "key countries", and many regional countries do not enjoy tangible benefits. They appreciate China's "visible" assistance more.

Chen Hong believes that the United States and the West have underestimated the political wisdom and judgment of the people of Pacific island countries, believing that through deception and threats, they can force the other party to submit to their own will. It seems that the results have been minimal now. Regional countries recognize the true strategic intentions of the United States. Carrying out diversified diplomacy and striving for peace and stability has become an irreversible trend.

As for the two Western members, New Zealand and Australia, they may not necessarily be obedient to the United States.

Two analysts pointed out that New Zealand will not explicitly oppose the United States, but will not openly challenge China and may adopt a strategy of "pushing a few steps forward" by the United States. On the Australian side, after the Labour Party came to power, it adopted a more flexible and pragmatic attitude, resulting in an improvement in relations with China. Although the United States is dissatisfied, it is also impossible to push Australia too hard, after all, the other party is a sovereign country.

Zhou Fangyin said that the Biden administration is now either ensuring that Australia does not deviate from the predetermined track of the US, or inducing Australia to obey it by smearing China and polishing the US. But it is not very realistic in the short term to make Australia rush to the front line of anti China as before.