Spanish election results announced: "a disastrous draw"... Floating Parliament | Spanish election

Spain holds parliamentary elections on July 23rd. The preliminary vote count shows that the right-wing party, the People's Party, ranks first in terms of vote share, while the current ruling party and left-wing party, the Workers' Socialist Party, rank second. But neither party has obtained the absolute majority of seats required to form a separate government. At present, it seems that there is no clear path for left-wing and right-wing political parties to form a governing coalition, which means that the fourth largest economy of the European Union may fall into a political stalemate.

Who is the winner?

In May of this year, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez from the Socialist Party of Workers announced that the Spanish general election, originally scheduled for December this year, would be postponed to July 23rd.

Public opinion believes that at that time, the Workers' Socialist Party was facing setbacks in local elections, and Sanchez was betting that early elections would have a greater chance of winning for the party. However, opportunities and risks coexist. At that time, right-wing forces were rising in Europe. However, the fact shows that Sanchez's bet seems to have worked.

Spain held parliamentary elections on July 23, with approximately 37.5 million voters nationwide voting to determine the ownership of 350 seats in the House of Representatives and 208 seats in the Senate. More than 22000 polling stations were established nationwide. According to the Spanish postal system, approximately 2.47 million people voted by mail.

The preliminary vote count released by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in the early hours of July 24th showed that the right-wing party, the People's Party, had a vote share of 33.05%, an increase of over 12 percentage points from the previous election. It is expected that the People's Party will win 136 seats in the House of Representatives, becoming the largest party in parliament.

People's Party Chairman Alberto Nunes Fejo said he is "proud" of this result, as the party jumped from second place in the last election to first place. Fejo also stated that he will engage in dialogue and consultation with other parties on the matter of forming a cabinet as soon as possible. "I hope this will not usher in an uncertain period for Spain," he said

However, the People's Party was not seen as the winner of this election as it failed to achieve its expected goal of winning a big victory and ousting the current Prime Minister, Sanchez.

Sanchez's ruling party and left-wing party, the Workers' Socialist Party, received 31.7% of the vote, ranking second and is expected to win 122 seats in the House of Representatives. Nevertheless, the Workers' Socialist Party regards this outcome as a victory as it has withstood pressure, performed better than expected, and posed an obstacle to the People's Party's control.

However, both the People's Party and the Workers' Socialist Party have not reached the threshold of forming a separate cabinet - obtaining at least 176 seats in the House of Representatives.

The far right party, the Voice Party, received 12.39% of the vote, ranking third and is expected to win 33 seats in the House of Representatives, with a slight lead over the fourth place party. The party leader Santiago Abbaskar seems unhappy, accusing his potential ally, the People's Party, of being too complacent and causing voters to lose motivation.

The emerging political party "Sumar", which integrates 15 left-wing small parties, received 12.31% of the vote, ranking fourth and is expected to win 31 seats in the House of Representatives.

According to preliminary statistics, the voter turnout for this election is about 70.4%. In the last general election held in 2019, the voter turnout was 66.23%. An analysis suggests that the reason why local voters interrupted their summer vacation and braved high temperatures to vote or mail ballots is because they realized the importance of this election - it is about whether far right political parties will enter the government. In addition, 1.6 million young voters have the right to participate in elections for the first time, which has also driven up the voter turnout.

The public opinion believes that there are several reasons why the People's Party and the Workers' Socialist Party have achieved such results.

One is that the People's Party has focused its firepower on attacking Sanchez. It is reported that during her four years in office, Sanchez has promoted a series of progress agendas, including women's rights. These reform measures helped him win votes in urban areas, but also sparked backlash in other regions.

In addition, the opposition party has also targeted the support Sanchez received from nationalists in Catalonia and the Basque region of Spain. They believe that the concessions made by Sanchez threaten the territorial integrity of the country.

While claiming to not owe anyone any debt, the People's Party has not provided a positive vision for improving the economy and people's livelihoods. A poll shows that local voters are most concerned about economic issues, followed by unemployment rates and healthcare.

"The People's Party needs to come up with more," said Ignacio Jurado, a political science professor at Carlos III University in Madrid.

Secondly, Sanchez's sudden announcement of early election strategy in May seems to have been effective, while Feho, who lacks experience in national elections, seems to be in a hurry.

The third issue is that the policy proposals of the Party on climate change, minority rights, and other issues have an extreme color, becoming a burden for the People's Party. Public opinion has noticed that the People's Party has attempted to distance itself from the Voice Party.

"A disastrous draw"

Although both the People's Party and the Workers' Socialist Party believe they have achieved success, there is still uncertainty about who will govern.

From the camp perspective, if the People's Party and the Call Party form a right-wing alliance, the two parties are expected to win 169 seats in the House of Representatives, which is still 7 seats short of the required seats for cabinet formation. Moreover, if the calling party enters the government, it may cause controversy. Given its radical stance, far right political parties have never entered the Spanish government for decades.

If the Workers' Socialist Party and the Sumar Party form a left-wing alliance, both sides are expected to gain 153 seats in the House of Representatives, but have not yet reached the threshold for forming a government.

At present, it seems that the political party that supports the independence of Catalonia, "Together for Catalonia," may become the king, and it is expected that the party will win 7 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the party may also offer a price - demanding that the new government support an independence referendum in the Catalan region. This group of pavilions comes at a high cost.

In this context, analysts warn that the Spanish political arena may be embroiled in ongoing political struggles, with even a floating parliament or another general election before the end of this year.

Teneo, a consulting firm, believes that the likelihood of Sanchez forming a coalition with left-wing parties is 45%, higher than the likelihood of Fejo successfully forming a coalition. But the company also expects a 45% chance of re election.

In addition, the selection of a new Spanish Prime Minister may also be difficult to produce. Reuters reported that given the highest vote share of the People's Party, King Felipe VI of Spain will invite Fejo to secure the position of Prime Minister. But in a similar situation in 2015, then leader of the People's Party, Mariano Rajoy, refused the king's invitation, stating that he could not receive enough support.

If history repeats itself again, Felipe VI may turn to Sanchez for an invitation. If no candidate receives a majority of support within two months after the first Prime Minister election vote, a new round of elections must be held.

At present, it may take some time for the fourth largest economy of the European Union to clarify its direction of progress, which also casts a shadow over Spain's current rotating presidency of the European Union and may disrupt the market.

Fejo seemed to threaten, "If the party with the most votes cannot govern, the only option is to fall into a deadlock, which is not beneficial for Spain, nor for our international reputation and investment security."

Jose Ignacio TorreBlanca, Director of the Madrid Office of the European Commission on Foreign Relations, commented that Spain is facing a "disastrous draw".