Why did centenarian Kissinger come?, More than 50 years later, "sudden visit", more than 50 years ago, secret visit to China US relations | Li Shangfu | Wang Yi | 100 year old Kissinger's visit to China

Just as a secret visit to China over 50 years ago melted the ice in US China relations, now, at a time when US China relations are in a slump, centenarian Kissinger has made a sudden visit to China.

On the 19th, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, met with former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in Beijing. The day before, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu met with Kissinger.

The timing of the visit to China, the target audience, the content of communication, and the release of signals... All the factors related to this unexpected visit have attracted attention.

Coming as a friend

"I am here as a friend of China," Kissinger said during a meeting with Li Shangfu.

As an old friend of the Chinese people, Kissinger has visited China hundreds of times over the past few decades. Affected by the COVID-19, this is his first visit to China after 2019.

The public opinion generally believes that this is an unexpected visit, and there was no prior disclosure of any information.

Although there are no signs, from the timing, this visit undoubtedly has profound significance.

At present, the relationship between China and the United States is between subtle changes.

On the one hand, the relationship between the two countries seems to have put on a tense background.

"The reason why this visit is remarkable is not only because of Kissinger's age and his relationship with China, but also because it coincides with a period of tense relations between the two countries," wrote The Washington Post.

After the Biden administration came to power, it positioned China as a strategic competitor, containing and suppressing China from all aspects of economy and trade, military, science and technology, and provoking the "red line" of bilateral relations such as the Taiwan issue. As a result, Sino US relations deteriorated sharply and were considered to have fallen into the lowest point in more than 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations.

Kissinger also used the phrase "on the edge of a cliff" to describe China US relations as on the brink of danger.

On the other hand, the relationship between the two countries has gradually shown a relaxed atmosphere in recent times.

Bloomberg and other media pointed out that Kissinger's visit to China coincides with the Biden administration's intention to promote high-level visits and stabilize Sino US relations. Recently, there has been frequent high-level interaction between China and the United States, and there are obvious signs of thawing in bilateral relations.

On the occasion of Kissinger's visit to China, in just one month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Yellen, and President's Special Envoy for Climate Issues Kerry visited China one after another, resuming high-level contacts between the two countries in foreign affairs, economy, climate change and other fields.

Kissinger expressed his intention during the meeting with Wang Yi. He said that although he does not hold public office, he cares about the US China relationship and supports the recent efforts of both sides to improve the relationship.

The only way to prevent a destructive conflict between the United States and China is through calm diplomacy, which Kissinger repeatedly emphasized. This visit is undoubtedly a practice of this concept.

Why did you meet the defense chief first?

From the perspective of the meeting participants, it is quite surprising that the first person Kissinger met after his visit was the Chinese Defense Minister.

This rare meeting has drawn attention from the outside world to the current frozen state of military exchanges between China and the United States.

Reuters pointed out that Kissinger's visit to China for high-level talks with the Chinese side comes at a time when the military high-level dialogue between China and the United States has not yet resumed. At the same time, military activities in East Asia are gradually strengthening.

The interruption of high-level military dialogue between China and the United States can be traced back to the farce of visiting Taiwan in August last year.

At that time, the then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Pelosi, insisted on visiting Taiwan, and China took multiple countermeasures. Including the "three cancellations" related to military exchanges: canceling the arrangement of communication between leaders of the Chinese and US military theaters, canceling the working meeting between the Chinese and US defense departments, and canceling the meeting of the China US maritime military security consultation mechanism.

Since then, the US has been seeking to restart communication with senior Chinese military officials. In June of this year, at the Shangri La Dialogue, the United States hoped to facilitate a meeting between Defense Minister Austin and Li Shangfu, but to no avail.

According to US media reports, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that when he visited China in June, he also intended to promote the resumption of high-level dialogue between the two militaries, but failed to do so.

Last week, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng was invited to meet with US Assistant Secretary of Defense Ellie Ratner at the Pentagon, which was seen as a "rare" and "unusual" meeting, highlighting the urgency of the US to rebuild military ties with China.

"Restoring military dialogue is a top priority for the Biden administration," said Ge Laiyi, Executive Director of the Indo Pacific Program at the German Marshall Foundation, a US think tank. Kissinger's visit is likely to urge Li Shangfu to resume dialogue between the US and China militaries.

According to a report released by the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, during a meeting with Li Shangfu, Kissinger stated that the two armies should strengthen communication.

Patrick Cronin, Director of Asia Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, stated that the exchange of defense ministers between China and the United States is crucial. "Ellie Ratner made this clear to Xie Feng last week and hoped that Dr. Kissinger could persuade Chinese leaders to find a creative way to engage in direct dialogue with US defense officials."

Some comments point out that the US has repeatedly created obstacles for high-level exchanges between the Chinese and American military, and now has to seek diplomatic channels to help the US military restore communication and exchanges with high-level Chinese military officials.

In addition, Carl Schuster, former Director of Operations at the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Pacific Command, pointed out that China's arrangement for Kissinger to meet with the Chinese Defense Minister demonstrates China's concerns about the US strengthening military deployments in the Asia Pacific region, increasing defense spending, and selling weapons to Taiwan.

What did both parties talk about?

From the perspective of communication content, during the meeting between Wang Yi, Li Shangfu, and Kissinger, when discussing China US relations, both sides coincidentally mentioned the keywords "peace" and "stability".

Wang Yi said that China's policy toward the United States maintains a high degree of continuity. It fundamentally follows the mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation proposed by President Xi Jinping. These three principles are fundamental and long-term. They are the two major powers of China and the United States. The way to get along.

Li Shangfu mentioned that China's path of peaceful development is a blessing to the world, not a disaster to the world, and the United States should make a correct strategic judgment. The peaceful coexistence and integrated development of emerging and developed countries will lead to a better future for our world.

Kissinger stated that both the United States and China should eliminate misunderstandings, coexist peacefully, and avoid confrontation. Neither the US nor China can afford to treat the other party as an opponent. Maintaining stable relations between the United States and China is crucial to world peace, stability, and human well-being.

At the same time, both sides also face the obstacles and crux of the current bilateral relationship, clarify their positions, and put forward suggestions.

Wang Yi elaborated on China's position on the Taiwan issue. He pointed out that if the US side sincerely hopes for stability in the Taiwan Strait, it should take actions to clearly and openly oppose "Taiwan independence" and draw a clear line from the separatist acts of "Taiwan independence.

Kissinger responded that One China is a serious commitment made by the United States in the Shanghai Communique, and he believes it will not be shaken or abandoned.

Li Shangfu pointed out that some people from the US have not aligned with China, resulting in the US China relationship hovering at a low point since the establishment of diplomatic relations.

Kissinger suggested that understanding and handling the US China relationship well, especially reversing the current difficult situation, requires broad thinking and historical and philosophical thinking. Both sides need to come up with wisdom, work together, and develop together.

He still has influence

As for Kissinger's visit to China, Matthew Miller, spokesman of the US State Department, said that when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China last month, China informed Antony Blinken of Kissinger's visit.

Miller emphasized that Kissinger is an ordinary citizen, and his visit to China is based on his personal wishes and does not represent the US government. But Miller said that Kissinger had briefly introduced his interactions with Chinese officials in the past, and there may be similar exchanges after this visit.

If there were such exchanges in the future, to what extent would Kissinger's trip affect US policy towards China and promote the return of US China relations to the right track? This is also a very concerning issue for people.

Some American experts hold a cautious attitude. Ge Laiyi believes that the effectiveness remains to be observed.

Ali Wayne, Senior Global Macro Geopolitics Analyst at Eurasia Group, said that although Kissinger enjoys high prestige, "it is currently unclear whether any interlocutor, whether official or informal, can significantly change the trajectory of US China relations."

Nevertheless, mainstream American media such as The New York Times and The Washington Post still recognize Kissinger's reputation, achievements, and influence.

According to media such as The Washington Post, Kissinger was a key figure in the reconciliation between China and the United States over half a century ago. He secretly visited China in July 1971, paving the way for the historic visit of then US President Nixon to China, and playing a crucial role in opening the door to Sino US exchanges and even the subsequent establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. For decades, Kissinger has maintained a close relationship with successive Chinese leaders and still has a certain influence on China US relations, being regarded as an "old friend" by Beijing.

According to Bloomberg, Kissinger's last visit to Beijing was in 2019, when Chinese leaders welcomed him at the Great Hall of the People and praised his sincere emotions and positive efforts in promoting the development of China US relations over the years. In May this year, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng met with Kissinger in Kent County, Connecticut to express China's congratulations on his 100th birthday.

Some American media outlets claim that even in today's highly tense relationship between the two countries, Kissinger's visit to Beijing still receives high attention and warm reception from the Chinese government.

The New York Times noted that during the tense geopolitical situation, when other US officials were given cold treatment, the Chinese Ministry of Defense described the meeting with Kissinger as relatively friendly. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense referred to Kissinger as a "foreign guest" when releasing the news.

"More than half a century has passed, and this centenarian is still widely respected in China," said the American Consumer News and Business Channel.