Promise to bring South Pacific Island with an alternative to China and the United States?, Depth | Macron's Historic Visit to South Pacific Island | Historic Visit | Macron

This week, the South Pacific region will welcome a series of historic visits, from the first US Defense Minister to visit Papua New Guinea to the first French President to visit the illegally owned islands in the region.

And Macron's appearance is undoubtedly more eye-catching than Austin, as he will be the latest world leader to step onto a Pacific island nation.

From July 24th to 28th, Macron will visit French New Caledonia and will make his first visit to Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, two non French territories of South Pacific.

The Elysee Palace has promised to bring an alternative to China and the United States to South Pacific Island. It is believed that as South Pacific increasingly attracts the attention of major powers, France is also trying to voice its own opinions, including advancing the implementation of the Indo Pacific strategy. Whether the "French choice" can meet regional needs will depend on France's own strategic choices.

To break the paradox

The public opinion generally believes that promoting the implementation of France's Indo Pacific strategy is the core goal of this historic visit.

Cui Hongjian, Director of the European Research Institute of the China Academy of International Studies, pointed out that according to France's definition, it is not an outsider in the Indo Pacific region, but a regional country with overseas territories, military facilities, and huge commercial and trade interests. Macron's trip will undoubtedly demonstrate the existence of tradition and safeguard economic and trade interests.

"Especially in the context of the South Pacific region becoming an increasingly competitive point between China and the United States, Macron wants to further showcase France's image as a regional country."

According to data, France has 7 overseas provinces and territories in the Indo Pacific region, covering an area of approximately 460000 square kilometers, with up to 1.5 million French citizens, an exclusive economic zone of approximately 9 million square kilometers, and a force of approximately 7000 people.

In terms of the Pacific region visited this time, France has sovereignty over three territories: New Caledonia, French Polynesia, and the Wallis and Futuna Islands.

Guo Chunmei, Deputy Director of the Institute of Southeast Asia and Oceania at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, believes that as major powers intervene in the South Pacific and increase resource investment, France is also unwilling to fall behind and is trying to increase its presence in the Indo Pacific region.

The strategic ambition of France can be seen from the countries chosen for this visit.

Vanuatu is known as the "backyard of Australia and New Zealand" and is located on approximately 80 islands. During World War II, its largest island was used by the United States as the largest military base in the Pacific. Now, the Biden administration plans to open an embassy in the country.

As for Papua New Guinea, its strategic significance and importance are self-evident. It can be seen from the planned visit of US President Biden, the recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Indian Prime Minister Modi, and the upcoming appearance of US Defense Minister Austin in the country this week. Moreover, the United States and Papua New Guinea have signed a security cooperation agreement. Australia is also negotiating a security treaty with Papua New Guinea.

Guo Chunmei said that Papua New Guinea is the largest South Pacific island country with a population of over 9 million and abundant resources, rich in oil and gas, as well as nickel and cobalt deposits. Moreover, it has a superior geographical location and is adjacent to Asia; The strategic location is crucial, located in the "second island chain". Therefore, Papua New Guinea is recognized as a strategically significant South Pacific power.

"In France's view, relying on the inherent advantages, historical connections, and practical existence of overseas territories is more conducive to playing a role in the South Pacific or Indo Pacific region. Macron hopes to further enhance France's strategic position in the Indo Pacific region through this visit."

Further analysis suggests that Macron's current focus on the Pacific region is due to the challenges faced by France's legitimacy and influence in the region.

Selene Pachon, a researcher and coordinator of the Pacific Islands Project at the Asian Studies Center of the French Institute of International Relations, pointed out in an article in the Japanese magazine Diplomat that France faces an urgent paradox in the Pacific region: despite having territory and the largest exclusive economic zone, as well as a sizable military, its diplomatic influence is relatively limited and its legitimacy is also being shaken. This stems from two challenges in two directions: one comes from the national level, and some overseas territories are seeking independence, such as the visit to New Guinea, which has undergone three independence referendums; Another regional cooperation project led by the United States is expanding at the geopolitical level, but France is not involved.

"President Macron's visit aims to rebuild the shaken legitimacy," Pajon wrote.

Visit highlights

From the itinerary, Macron will first fly to New Caledonia and stay for two days. This is the French President's second visit to this overseas territory after a 5-year hiatus.

The reason for staying in Xinca for the longest time is twofold: firstly, it is within one's own territory, and secondly, it requires solving a difficult problem.

Although three independence referendums in recent years have ended in failure, some parts of New Guinea are seriously divided, and both the French and independent factions are dissatisfied. The French camp hopes that the É lys é e Palace will make a clearer and stronger statement about France's role, rather than just playing the role of an arbitrator.

The independence camp, represented by the indigenous people of Kanak, still does not give up independence and will continue to advance the self-determination movement.

It is reported that Macron's trip will prompt negotiations between the two factions on future status.

Matthias Shocha, a professor of public law at the University of New Caledonia, stated that Macron's visit was aimed at "reaffirming France's sovereignty.".

Of course, the ultimate goal of reconciling the two factions and reaffirming sovereignty is still to serve France's Indo Pacific strategy. Macron said that the ultimate goal of this visit is to place New Caledonia at the "center" of France's international influence and strategic interests in the Indo Pacific region.

Pachon commented that Paris's "Indo Pacific strategy" has created chaos in its territories, with the latter believing that Macron only focuses on the strategic level without considering the practical interests and needs of the three overseas territories, including economic, social, and environmental issues. They hope that the strategy can be adjusted. "Macron's trip aims to repair the relationship between Paris and the Pacific territories and strive to implement his' Indo Pacific strategy 'at the sub regional level."

On the 27th, Macron will visit Vanuatu. This will be the first visit by a French president to the country since the 1960s, when it was still a Commonwealth of England and France, and later became independent in 1980.

The final stop in Papua New Guinea is considered the highlight of this trip. Macron's office stated that the President plans to visit a French patrol ship in the region, provide infrastructure projects, establish partnerships for forest conservation, and promote energy cooperation to provide more employment opportunities for Papua New Guinea.

According to reports from Papua New Guinea media, Macron's visit comes on the eve of French energy giant Total's final investment decision on the Papua liquefied natural gas project, indicating that France will increase its investment in Papua New Guinea.

Cui Hongjian also added that due to the impact of the Ukraine crisis, the "Indo Pacific strategy" of European countries, including France, is strengthening the security dimension to varying degrees. Macron is expected to make a statement on security issues during this visit.

Another option

From advocating for reducing dependence on the United States to hoping to participate in the BRICS summit, as a leader of Western powers, Macron's "independence" is impressive.

During this visit to the South Pacific region, Macron seems to have prepared a special French "gift".

According to French media reports, the Elysee Palace has stated that in the increasingly fierce competition between China and the United States, Macron will bring another option to the South Pacific region. Including increasing France's participation, especially in development aid and natural disaster assistance. Presidential advisors revealed that every stop of Macron's trip will focus on issues such as coastal erosion and climate change.

The Elysee Palace also stated that this trip is not to promote anti China policies, but to encourage regional countries to establish diversified partnerships outside of China and the United States.

What "ingredients" may be included in this "French choice"? What impact will it bring to the region?

In this regard, Cui Hongjian believes that if Macron can implement its statement into policies and consistently adhere to it, then France and even Europe may play a constructive role in the Pacific region in the future. After all, the Indo Pacific strategies of France and the United States are not consistent.

From a goal perspective, the intention of the United States is to transform the political, economic, and security environment in the Asia Pacific region, in order to weaken China's ability to challenge the hegemonic position of the United States. So, the United States' Indo Pacific strategy is a security front, with economic and social policy support, serving the so-called purpose of competing for hegemony with China. Like other European countries, France's top priority is economic and trade interests, and it does not want to see intense confrontation in the Asia Pacific region, especially as it cannot become a arena for so-called Sino US hegemony.

In terms of approach, the United States places more emphasis on competition and small circles, while France places greater emphasis on multilateralism and balance, hoping to provide other options for regional countries.

According to analysis, with the strategic adjustment of the United States, France launched the "Indo Pacific Strategy" in 2019. However, after being backstabbed by the United States, Britain, and Australia over the nuclear submarine agreement in 2021, France has re examined its "Indo Pacific strategy" and intends to make France a balancing force in the region outside of China and the United States.

However, Cui Hongjian emphasized that if France wants to truly bring suitable choices to regional countries, it will depend on its own positioning and choices.

Firstly, its "Indo Pacific strategy" goal cannot merge with the United States or be biased by the United States, and is only aimed at working together with the United States to contain China.

Secondly, although France has a historical connection with the Pacific region, we cannot ignore ourselves as outsiders. In fact, France has profound historical, cultural, and other contradictions with this region. Utilizing colonial heritage to maintain and enhance interests has faced increasing pressure.

"If France and even Europe want to achieve political goals and play a role in the Pacific region, they should find an accurate position, adopt a pragmatic approach, fully respect the will of regional countries, rather than being condescending and bossing around, otherwise it will backfire."

Guo Chunmei pointed out that the increasing interest of major powers in the South Pacific region not only brings opportunities for economic development and aid, but also introduces political challenges, including being asked by hegemonic countries to choose sides, possible internal divisions, and the destruction of Pacific regionalism. However, the South Pacific island country adheres to the diplomatic philosophy of "making friends and not making enemies", unwilling to take sides and rejecting zero sum games.

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Marape said that in the constantly changing geopolitical landscape of the region, Papua New Guinea will remain "neutral" and he will urge France to consider Papua New Guinea's strategic position in the constantly changing regional dynamics.

Marape previously stated that he hopes to expand trade with China and has plans to visit Beijing later this year.

Guo Chunmei believes that if "France's choice" is as stated, it will strengthen assistance to the South Pacific region in areas such as economic development and disaster relief, then China and France will also find more cooperation points.