How did the Peninsula script evolve?, North Korea Responds with Further Bombing, Depth | The Situation of US Nuclear Submarines Visiting the Korean Peninsula Continuously | North Korea Responds with Further Bombing | US Nuclear Submarines

Recently, there have been frequent and unsettling screenplays on the Korean Peninsula. The USS Kentucky left Busan for only three days, and on the 24th, the USS Annapolis entered Jeju. Faced with repeated threats from the US South Korea alliance, North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile late on the 24th, marking Pyongyang's third time firing a missile since last week.

If the main storyline of the script is the confrontation between the United States and South Korea, then several other branches of the storyline are also worth paying attention to, including the incident of American soldiers breaking into North Korea and the upcoming "Armistice Day" commemoration event in Pyongyang. What kind of situation is the situation on the Korean Peninsula presenting under the interweaving of complex clues, and what kind of trend will it have, which affects the global vision.

Speed up the "hard and fast" game

In the new round of peninsula confrontation, the visit of South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol to the United States at the end of April this year is seen as an important milestone.

At that time, Yin Xiyue and US President Biden issued the Washington Declaration and joint statement, agreeing to upgrade the US's "extended deterrence" against South Korea and strengthen the deployment of US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas. Both sides also agreed to establish a "nuclear consultation group" mechanism and add military training and simulation exercises between South Korea and the United States.

Afterwards, a series of coordinated actions by South Korea and the United States were launched in full swing. In late May, the largest ever joint firepower annihilation exercise between the United States and South Korea, which lasted for several weeks, made its debut. In June, the defense ministers of the United States, Japan, and South Korea reached a consensus on immediately sharing North Korean ballistic missile intelligence within the year. In July, the first meeting of the South Korea US Nuclear Consultative Group was held at the Presidential Palace of South Korea

Among all actions, the most blatant and direct threat seen by North Korea is undoubtedly the first deployment of nuclear submarines by the United States to the Korean Peninsula after more than 40 years. On July 18th, the Ohio class strategic nuclear submarine Kentucky docked at the Busan Operations Base until July 21st. During this time, Yin Xiyue and his wife also boarded a submarine, capturing the beautiful scene of military cooperation between the United States and South Korea.

The USS Kentucky departed only 3 days ago, and the US Los Angeles class nuclear powered submarine, the USS Annapolis, arrived one after another on the 24th. According to the South Korean Navy, the submarine docked at the Jeju Naval Base was only equipped with conventional weapons and was carrying supplies during the mission. At present, the US and South Korean military are discussing whether to arrange training related to this submarine.

Faced with the increasing support of the US nuclear umbrella, North Korea's response is exceptionally strong.

At the end of April, Kim Yoo jung, Deputy Minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, harshly criticized the Washington Declaration, stating that the North Korean side would "increase the exercise of its right to self-defense proportionally.". After the "Nuclear Consultative Group" meeting between South Korea and the United States and the departure of US nuclear submarines to the peninsula, the North Korean side has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction by firing missiles. Among them, the most closely watched by the outside world is North Korea's highest leader, Kim Jong un, who personally guided the launch of the country's latest intercontinental ballistic missile, the Mars Cannon 18, this month. This missile is considered the "core weapon system" of strategic armed forces.

The North Korean side also issued a statement: due to military recklessness by the United States and its followers, the military security situation on the peninsula has fundamentally changed. The enhanced deployment of strategic assets, including strategic nuclear submarines, may meet the conditions for North Korea to use nuclear weapons.

The Guardian and other media outlets have pointed out that for some time, the United States has been working to increase the visibility of strategic assets in the Korean Peninsula region to intimidate North Korea. Whether it's North Korea's display of weapons or the pace of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, they are all accelerating in a round of "needle to wheat". All of this has made the situation on the peninsula highly tense.

The eve of quantitative to qualitative change?

Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the current situation on the peninsula is on the eve of a quantitative to qualitative change.

Specifically, the US South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting and the arrival of US strategic nuclear submarines in South Korea are the most direct nuclear protection for South Korea and the most blatant nuclear threat to North Korea. In the past, the United States mainly exerted pressure on North Korea through conventional weapons, although B-52 bombers and aircraft carriers would also appear on the peninsula, they were basically at the pace of military exercises. Now, the "Nuclear Consultative Group" meeting will become a routine mechanism, indicating that the United States hopes to achieve the normalization of deploying strategic weapons in South Korea, not just "shelving" along with military exercises.

"Therefore, the threat from the United States to North Korea can be described as a quantitative to qualitative change - no longer continuing the previous pattern, but rising to a larger nuclear threat." Wang Junsheng said, "For North Korea, according to the logic of being tough against being tough, it may take unconventional actions unexpectedly. In this context, the situation on the peninsula may not only be a recurrence of past tense situations, but there may be a new risk of high tension, even out of control."

Wang Junsheng believes that the current situation on the peninsula is closely related to the shift in US and South Korean policies towards North Korea.

In the past, the starting point of the US and South Korea's policy towards North Korea was to strive for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but in terms of the way to achieve denuclearization, the relevant parties on the Korean Peninsula issue have different positions. But the recent series of actions by the United States have highlighted its lack of motivation to promote denuclearization, and its policy has shifted towards competition among major powers. The most significant sign is that the United States is not only deploying strategic weapons in South Korea, but also in other Asia Pacific countries such as Japan.

South Korea, on the other hand, is using the name of "denuclearization" to strengthen interoperability and integration with the United States in the field of military security. For a period of time, South Korea has incorporated countries such as Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom into its military exercise framework, strengthened its ties with NATO, and developed its own strategic weapons.

"From this, it can be seen that the Yin Xiyue government does not prioritize denuclearization," said Wang Junsheng. "The policy shift of South Korea and the United States will have a very profound impact on the situation on the peninsula."

Liu Ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the United States is implementing the Washington Declaration and providing extended deterrence to South Korean allies. Because the United States and South Korea have found that North Korea has not been suppressed, they are still launching the Mars Cannon 18 and other short-range ballistic missiles. At the same time, the United States is unwilling to see South Korea develop nuclear weapons on its own. Therefore, Washington sent a series of nuclear submarines to the peninsula, showcasing a nuclear umbrella to South Korea and responding to North Korea. In the standoff between nuclear and conventional weapons, the prospect of denuclearization in the peninsula region is even more hopeless.

Looking ahead to the next stage of the situation, Liu Ming believes that North Korea and the United States will fall into an "unequal nuclear stalemate" - the United States has an absolute advantage in the nuclear field and can control North Korea's movements through investigation. This determines that the likelihood of both sides heading towards nuclear war is very low. However, in a tense situation, all parties may overreact and make misjudgments, so it is not ruled out that small-scale conflicts may erupt. Special attention should be paid to the risks of drone confrontation and ship confrontation, as well as the consequences of the South Korean military's increased rapid response at the request of Yoon Seok yeol.

How does an emergency come to an end?

On the main storyline of the "tough confrontation" between the United States, South Korea, and North Korea, there are several branch plots worth paying attention to, all of which may affect the trajectory of the situation on the peninsula.

How will the incident of American soldiers breaking into North Korea end? Will it add uncertainty to the situation on the peninsula?

On the 18th, US soldier Travis King suddenly crossed the border into North Korea from Panmunjom during a group tour. His motivation is unknown. US State Department spokesperson Miller stated on the 24th that the State Department has not yet engaged in any "substantive communication" with North Korea.

Wang Junsheng believes that there are still many mysteries in this incident, and North Korea will evaluate and handle it according to different situations - if soldiers voluntarily go to North Korea, North Korea may use it for political propaganda or negotiate with the United States. But if soldiers are supported by certain forces, North Korea will be very averse, after all, this is an extraordinary period.

Wang Junsheng said that the dominant power in this matter lies in North Korea. The Biden administration may need coordination and cooperation with China to push for a smooth resolution of the incident, as North Korea has basically cut off all contacts with South Korea, while the Swedish channel has not been restored due to the interruption of the epidemic. "Although the issue of soldiers and the pressure exerted by the United States and South Korea on North Korea are two different things, working together will further complicate the already fragile situation on the peninsula."

Liu Ming believes that when the situation on the peninsula slows down, all parties can solve the problem through dialogue channels. Sometimes the North Korean side also uses this as a bargaining chip to invite former US politicians and officials to go to North Korea to "attract people". But now that channels are not smooth and the situation is tense, North Korea may not necessarily believe that it is meaningful to use this to "establish relations" with the United States.

Secondly, North Korea will hold a commemorative event on the 27th to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the ceasefire in the Korean War. What signals does Pyongyang hope to send through it?

On the 25th, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Li Hongzhong, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, will lead a Chinese party and government delegation to visit North Korea from the 26th to attend the above-mentioned commemorative activities. In addition, a delegation led by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu will visit North Korea from the 25th to the 27th.

Yonhap News Agency pointed out that this is the first time North Korea has invited foreign guest groups to visit since the border was closed due to the epidemic in 2020, which may become a signal for conducting foreign activities.

Liu Ming believes that the confrontation between Pyongyang and South Korea and the United States has intensified. Recently, the launch of military reconnaissance satellites failed, and such commemorative activities are particularly needed to boost morale and confidence. The commemorative event also provides a diplomatic stage for North Korea, allowing for interaction with important officials from China, Russia, and other countries to discuss how to promote regional peace and stability. It can be observed whether there will be any progress in the exchange of visits between high-level delegations from China and North Korea after this event.

Wang Junsheng believes that first of all, commemorative activities help consolidate the traditional friendship between China and North Korea. In history, China and North Korea have fought side by side. Secondly, as the international situation undergoes significant changes, China and North Korea also hope to strengthen strategic communication and cooperation to jointly promote peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

Can we break free from the "deadlock"

Both analysts believe that the current situation on the peninsula is complex and sensitive, and is at a critical crossroads. The relevant parties should have balanced their reasonable concerns through meaningful dialogue, but some countries are seeking geopolitical interests through the Peninsula issue, which brings obvious destructive effects to the region.

Wang Junsheng believes that solving the Peninsula issue requires dialogue, and dialogue requires creating an atmosphere. However, in recent years, the continuous escalation of US and South Korean military exercises has gradually led the situation towards a vicious cycle of deadlock. The United States and South Korea are responsible for this.

Another threat to seeking geopolitical self-interest is the threat to peace in Northeast Asia. There are many powerful countries in this region, but the United States has introduced strategic weapons into the region, which not only targets North Korea but also affects the security of other neighboring countries such as China, thereby affecting mutual trust between major powers such as China and the United States. This is also detrimental to the world.

Liu Ming believed that during the Korean government, although the fundamental problems could not be solved, the situation on the peninsula generally slowed down, and the relations between China and the DPRK and between China and the ROK were basically stable, which was good for the pattern of Northeast Asia. But now, the military pressure from the United States and South Korea may stimulate North Korea to develop more nuclear missiles, causing a serious imbalance in the original strategic balance in Northeast Asia and intensifying the confrontation.

An article published by the United States Institute for Peace Studies pointed out that an enhanced version of pressure from the United States and South Korea may not be able to contain North Korea. History has shown that similar measures will only cause North Korea to rebound - whether it was Pyongyang's response to deterrence with its nuclear weapons program between 2013 and 2017, or North Korea's increased military activities last year, both are examples. "The United States and South Korea should not be surprised by North Korea's reciprocal response."