Will consumption during the National Day holiday exceed that in 2019? These differences are worth noting

826 million people, 753.43 billion yuan, this is the number of domestic tourists and the tourism revenue achieved during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday that just ended.

Is this data high or low? Everyone’s mentality may feel that it needs to be compared with before the epidemic.

On a comparable basis, the number of tourists during this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday increased by 4.1% compared with the same period in 2019, and tourism revenue increased by 1.5% compared with the same period in 2019.

This is the first time since 2020 that the tourism performance during the National Day holiday has returned to a higher level than in 2019.

Looking specifically, there are several data worth noting:

After the "Double Festival" tourism data was released, some netizens were not optimistic. They felt that the flow of people was just greater and the consumption power had not recovered.

This conclusion is wrong. From the data point of view, although there is no explosive growth, the consumption power is very close to the level of the same period in 2019, and far exceeds the situation during the previous holidays this year.

According to calculations based on data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the per capita consumption amount during this year's "Double Festival" was 912 yuan. Compared with this year's Dragon Boat Festival and May Day holidays, there has been a significant increase, an increase of 159.1% and 68.8% respectively.

Compared with the same period in the past five years, per capita consumption during this year's National Day has also exceeded that in 2019, increasing by 9.8%.

However, due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays this year, if the per capita daily consumption is calculated, this year is still slightly lower than in 2019, but the difference is not big, only a decrease of 3.9%.

Compared with the previous three years, the per capita daily consumption amount has also increased significantly.

According to data from the Ministry of Transport, during this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, the country's railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation are expected to carry a total of 458 million passengers, which is the highest number since 2020, but is not as good as the 600 million passengers in the same period in 2019.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, during the holidays this year, the average daily number of passengers across the country was 56.81 million, of which 3,579 were highway passengers, accounting for more than 60%, followed by railways, which had an average daily passenger volume of more than There were 16.8 million passengers, and the average daily passenger volume of civil aviation was 2.135 million.

Compared with the data for the same period in 2019, railways and civil aviation increased by 22% and 13% year-on-year in 2019, especially railways. From September 27th to October 6th, the national railways carried more than 160 million passengers. On September 29, railway passenger traffic reached a record high of over 20 million passengers in a single day.

The civil aviation industry’s passenger flow of 2.135 million not only exceeded the same period in 2019, but also exceeded this year’s May Day holiday and summer travel.

The recovery of the aviation industry is also reflected in higher prices. During the holidays, the average price of domestic one-way tax-included air tickets was 1,037 yuan, an increase of 21% compared with the National Day holiday in 2019; the average price of cross-border one-way tax-included air tickets was 2,213 yuan, an increase of 29% compared with 2019.

The overall factor for the decline is that the highways that carry the most passengers have a 48% decrease in passenger flow this year compared to the same period in 2019.

The decline in this data is, on the one hand, due to the developed high-speed rail, which competes for a large number of highway passengers. On the other hand, it is a problem of statistical caliber. The statistics of the Ministry of Transport do not include self-driving travel.

Judging from highway traffic data, more and more people are driving on the road. Highway traffic during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday in 2023 reached 487 million vehicles, an increase of 38% compared with the same period in 2019.

According to statistics from China Car Rental, car rentals are in full bloom during the holidays. Orders for "large-scale transportation rentals" have increased by more than 300%, the national average occupancy rate has exceeded 90%, the peak occupancy rate has exceeded 95%, and the average daily car pickup volume has increased by 30% year-on-year. %, the peak duration is longer, and many indicators have refreshed historical records. Thanks to the longer holidays, the average rental period increased significantly by more than 30%; new user orders accounted for about 40%, and new energy vehicle orders increased by more than 300% year-on-year.

If you include people driving by themselves, the passenger flow this year may not be less than in 2019.

There are more people watching performances and events, but fewer people watching movies.

During this year’s National Day holiday, people’s cultural consumption habits are also changing.

Compared with 2019, there were more screenings and more expensive tickets, but fewer moviegoers and lower box office revenue.

According to Tuopu data, the number of screenings during the holiday period reached 3.531 million, an increase of 35% compared with the same period in 2019, and ticket prices increased by 11.4%. However, the national box office revenue was only 2.731 billion yuan, which was only higher than that in 2022 in the past five years. Compared with It fell by 38.8% in 2019.

However, from a city perspective, the box office in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased significantly year-on-year in 2022. The box office in fifth-tier cities increased the most year-on-year, reaching 135.2%, followed by fourth-tier and third-tier cities, which increased by 118% and 99.2% respectively.

Compared with 2019, the ticket warehouse attendance structure during this year’s National Day period shows an obvious downward trend, and the market share of third-tier and below-tier cities has increased significantly.

In addition to busy travel, the popularity of the entertainment market and the Asian Games has also diverted the film market.

Nationwide, data from the China Performance Industry Association shows that from September 29 to October 6, there were 44,237 commercial performances nationwide, an increase of 227.68% compared to last year and far exceeding the level of the same period in 2019.

During the "Double Festival" period, Beijing held a total of 358 offline commercial performances in 2017, with an average of 252 performances per day, including 3 large-scale concerts on 2 channels and 4 music festivals on 2 channels, attracting a total of about 55,000 viewers. 10,000 people attended, and the box office revenue reached 90 million yuan.

Box office revenue also reached 2.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 322.14% and a year-on-year increase of 82.60% in 2019.

The rich sports events also attract many sports enthusiasts, including the Hangzhou Asian Games, China Tennis Open, Shanghai Tennis Masters, etc.

According to reports, a total of more than 3.05 million tickets were sold for this Asian Games, with ticketing revenue exceeding 610 million yuan. Among them, the peak number of viewers was 290,000 on October 1, the National Day.

Inbound and outbound tourism has not yet returned to the level of the same period in 2019

What is different from the past is that this year's Asian Games coincides with the "Golden Week" of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which has injected new variables into the inbound and outbound tourism market.

During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays this year, border inspection agencies across the country inspected a total of 11.818 million people entering and exiting the country, with an average of 1.477 million people per day, which was 85.1% of the same period in 2019.

The boosting effect of the Asian Games is also obvious. Fliggy data shows that during the Asian Games, international air ticket bookings to Hangzhou increased by more than 20 times year-on-year, Hangzhou destination train ticket bookings increased by more than 4.7 times year-on-year, and hotel bookings around Hangzhou event venues increased by more than 20 times year-on-year. 3 times.

The arrival of inbound tourists also boosts consumption. Alipay platform data shows that since the start of the competition, the average daily number of payments made by inbound tourists using Alipay has increased by 68.8% month-on-month.

It is worth mentioning that during the "Double Festival" period, Hong Kong and Macao residents have strong demand for inbound tourism and family visits. On October 2, the number of vehicles cleared at the Zhuhai Highway Port of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in a single day exceeded 14,000 for the first time, setting a new record since the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge was opened to traffic. The passenger flow exceeded 107,000, a new high in the past four years. The role of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in promoting the integrated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has become increasingly obvious.

However, insufficient cross-border flight capacity is still a factor restricting inbound and outbound tourism.

Judging from the flight volume, the inter-provincial tourism market has returned to the level of the same period in 2019, but there is still room for improvement in cross-border flights.

Taking Shanghai Pudong as an example, the total number of domestic flights in September this year has exceeded the same period in 2019 by 21.83%, while international flights have only recovered to 60% of pre-epidemic levels.

The volume of international flights at Xi'an Xianyang, Kunming Changshui, and Chongqing Jiangbei Airports has only reached about 1/3 of that in 2019.

In terms of destination choice, Southeast Asia and East Asia alone account for more than 75%, among which the "old neighbors" South Korea, Thailand and Japan are the most popular. There are still fewer in Oceania, North America, Central Asia and other places.

Visiting business districts and tasting delicious food, urban tourism first drives consumption in catering and retail.

According to the Ministry of Commerce’s commercial big data monitoring information, two days before the “Double Festival”, business circles and pedestrian streets in various cities were “overcrowded”. Among them, the passenger flow of national demonstration pedestrian streets increased by 68.6% year-on-year, and the passenger flow of key business districts in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 99.2% year-on-year.

Take Shanghai as an example. During the festival, the total offline passenger flow into stores in 35 key business districts in Shanghai reached 37.89 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, and also exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, with an increase of 19.8%.

The huge flow of people brought more than 44.9 billion yuan of offline consumption to Shanghai, of which external consumption reached 16.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year.

According to data from the Meituan platform, hairy crabs, steaks, and hot pot are the most popular takeaway dishes among tourists.

Some people choose to travel during the holidays, while others choose "staycation" - improving home equipment and improving home comfort. Renewal of various home appliances has become a new trend during the "Double Festival".

According to data from Suning.com, from September 28 to October 6, home appliances and home decoration orders increased by 122% year-on-year, with most of them concentrated in kitchen and balcony scenes, accounting for 60%. Including smoke stove sets, washing and drying sets, and intelligent cleaning robots, the year-on-year growth rates reached 100%, 85%, and 83% respectively.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, furniture replacement is also showing a trend of smartness and greenness. On some e-commerce platforms, sales of fresh air air conditioners, energy-saving water heaters, smart sweepers and other products have more than doubled year-on-year.

With the upgrade of travel methods, the craze of self-driving travel has also driven the consumption of automobile-related products.

JD.com’s consumption data shows that from September 23 to October 1, demand for car maintenance kits surged, increasing by 344% compared to the same period last year. In order to ensure the comfort of self-driving travel, many consumers have upgraded the in-car equipment. Among them, car audio is the first choice.

Long-distance travel may cause wear and tear on vehicle parts, so consumer demand for car insurance and emergency equipment has also increased. Data shows that on the JD.com platform, sales of wheel hub accessories increased by 137% year-on-year, and tow ropes and inspection lights also increased by 34% and 33% respectively.

The boom in the consumer market during the "Double Festival" is a good sign, showing that the current economic recovery trend is full of vitality and resilience. In the future, local governments and commercial departments at all levels will continue to implement and carry out consumption-promoting policies to create a good consumption environment and stimulate greater potential.