Will "10 Downing Street" change hands? The UK will hold an early general election in three days

The UK will hold a general election on July 4th local time. This is an early election, which is called a "big gamble" by Prime Minister Sunak. The continued low polls and scandals have left the Conservative Party, which has been in power for 14 years, with few chips to bet on. Will "10 Downing Street" change hands in a few days? What kind of storm will be set off in British politics?

On May 22, local time, it was raining heavily in London, England. British Prime Minister Sunak stood in front of 10 Downing Street, looking solemn, with his dark suit on his shoulders wet by the rain. Amid the loud protests of opponents, he announced that an early general election would be held.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak: We will hold a general election on July 4, and this election will be held at the most dangerous moment in the post-Cold War world. I will fight for every vote, I will win your trust, and prove to you that only the Conservative government led by me can restore pride and confidence in the country.

This is a general election that came much earlier than expected. Britain has never held a general election in July since 1945. Sunak, the first Indian-born prime minister born in the 1980s in British history, has rewritten history again.

"Why now? Why not?" This is the question Sunak and his team pondered over and over before making a decision. Jin Ling, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, believes that after seeing the decline in the number of immigrants and the rise in threats from far-right parties, Sunak "can't sit still".

Jin Ling, Director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies: Immigration is also a very important consideration in the UK election process. When Sunak announced the early general election, the number of net immigrants in the UK was actually decreasing, and he was also pushing the "Rwanda Plan" to become law, which Sunak considered to be a positive factor. Perhaps we also have to consider another factor, which is the far-right party, the Reform Party. In fact, the threat of the Reform Party to the Conservative Party is increasing, so if it is postponed to the end of 2024, in Sunak's view, the Reform Party may divert more votes from the Conservative Party.

The biggest confidence may come from the UK's first quarter economic data. Public data shows that the UK economy grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, the fastest growth rate in two and a half years. Kong Yuan, an associate researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, observed that when there was a faint light at the end of the UK economic tunnel, Sunak finally decided that it was better to do it now.

Kong Yuan, associate researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: In the short term, the UK's economic recovery is in a relatively good situation, so Sunak and his advisers believe that this may create more favorable conditions for the Conservative Party's election, which is one of their main considerations. Another consideration is that they believe that if it is delayed until later in the second half of this year, the UK's economic situation will not show an absolute trend of improvement.

"Big Gamble" = "Miserable Failure"? The answer may have been revealed

The "prosperity on paper" is not sustainable after all. A survey released by the Confederation of British Industry on June 24 showed that the contraction rate of manufacturing orders in the UK in June slowed down compared with the previous month, but export orders fell sharply. Data released by the UK National Statistics Office on June 12 showed that due to the sluggish retail and construction industries, the UK's economic growth in April was zero month-on-month.

Strikes continue with economic problems. A week before the general election, junior doctors in England began their 11th strike since March last year. The organizers of the strike said that if inflation is taken into account, the actual salary of junior doctors in England has dropped by more than a quarter compared to 2008. Vivek Trivedi, co-chairman of the British Junior Doctors Committee, admitted that high inflation has increased the cost of living, which has put them under great pressure.

Therefore, the "bet" is not strong enough, and the counter-attack becomes a problem. Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour Party, questioned Sunak in a TV debate before the general election.

△British Prime Minister Sunak and Labour Party Leader Starmer

Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour Party: Sunak knows that inflation will rise again, he knows that energy prices will rise in the autumn, and that's what he doesn't tell you.

Many recent polls have shown that the Labour Party's support rate is far ahead of the Conservative Party. In fact, since Sunak came to power in October 2022, the Labour Party has maintained a double-digit lead over the Conservative Party. In Jin Ling's view, the suspense of the general election may only lie in how many seats the Labour Party can lead the Conservative Party.

Jin Ling, Director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies: At present, I think the Labour Party’s positioning of this election is a referendum on the Conservative Party’s 14-year rule. Especially since the UK’s “Brexit”, the UK under the Conservative Party has been in chaos. In the history of the UK, there has never been a revolving door of prime ministers, including economic stagnation and some scandals. In fact, since Sunak took office, he has been under pressure from a large lag behind the Labour Party in terms of support rate. So from the current situation, the Labour Party should have a very high chance of winning. The only difference is probably how big the Labour Party’s advantage is.

"Rebuilding Britain by promoting economic growth" is the campaign slogan of the Labour Party. The corresponding policy platform promises to promote economic growth by formulating new industrial policies, investing in infrastructure, reducing planning red tape and building 1.5 million new homes. However, Kong Yuan pointed out that for the UK, where the public finances are already "tight", "where the money comes from" is a big problem.

Kong Yuan, Associate Researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Britain's public finances are indeed not optimistic, so many people doubt whether the Labour Party's series of promises can be fulfilled in the end. There is a huge financial black hole behind the Labour Party's series of policies, that is, the things it promised to do and the money it needed to spend did not explain how to come from, so many people speculate that after the Labour Party came to power, it might fill its huge financial black hole by raising taxes.

At this time, people's attention is on Starmer, who is moving step by step towards 10 Downing Street. When he became the leader of the Labour Party, Starmer promised to lead the Labour Party "into a new era with confidence and hope." Kong Yuan said that he did create a united center-left party, but what about after that?

Kong Yuan, Associate Researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Starmer is a person who attaches great importance to unity. When he "took over" the British Labour Party in 2020, there were serious problems within the Labour Party. The then Labour Party leader Corbyn was a relatively radical leftist, and many of his policies were very radical, such as the nationalization of energy and infrastructure in the country and large-scale wealth distribution. After Starmer came to power, all he did was to make up for the image of the Labour Party, unite the different factions within the Labour Party, and create a united, unified, center-left Labour Party. So he was basically successful in this regard, but if you want to ask whether Starmer has the ability to unite Britain and get out of the current predicament, we can only say that we will make further observations.

Some analysts believe that among all the possible reasons that may have contributed to the Labour Party's election, the biggest reason is that the British people are "tired" of the Conservative Party and are just looking for a possibility. This is a manifestation of the pendulum effect in Western electoral politics.

But people can't help but ask, after 14 years, the Conservative Party has failed to lead Britain out of the comprehensive economic, political and social crisis. Can the Labour Party headed by Starmer do it?