Has Aung San Suu Kyi been unbound? Is there a new change in the situation in Myanmar?, Depth | Obtained permission to meet foreign high-ranking officials, released from prison, reduced sentence | Myanmar situation | Obtained sentence reduction | Aung San Suu Kyi

Just as her fate suddenly changed when she was detained two and a half years ago, two and a half years later, Aung San Suu Kyi, who was sentenced to 33 years in prison, unexpectedly received an amnesty order, and her fate seemed to have ushered in a new turning point.

On August 1st, the Myanmar National Management Council issued an amnesty order, pardoning nearly 8000 prisoners. Myanmar's former State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Win Min have received a reduction of 6 and 4 years in prison, respectively.

For the first time in nearly a month, Aung San Suu Kyi has been granted permission to meet with foreign officials, transitioning from being imprisoned to being placed under house arrest in government residences, and now receiving amnesty and reduced sentence. Her situation seems to be gradually shifting from tight to relaxed.

How did this series of changes occur? Does it indicate that the domestic situation in Myanmar is undergoing subtle changes since the political upheaval in February 2021?

Is the rope loosening?

Since the beginning of this year, the Myanmar National Management Council has issued amnesty orders multiple times. However, this month's amnesty touched on the sentences of former Burmese leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and Wen Min, which is particularly noteworthy. It is reported that after commutation, Aung San Suu Kyi's remaining sentence is over 20 years, while Wen Min's sentence is less than 10 years.

The National Management Committee stated that issuing multiple amnesty orders is to celebrate traditional festivals in Myanmar and for humanitarian, ethnic unity, domestic peace, and inter state relations considerations.

Time goes back to February 1st, 2021. At that time, Aung San Suu Kyi and some senior officials of the Myanmar National League for Democracy were detained by the military, causing a sudden change in the situation in Myanmar.

The detention originated from a dispute between the military and the Democratic League over the results of the 2020 election.

In the federal parliamentary elections held in November 2020, the Democratic League won again after winning the general election in 2015, holding more than half of the seats.

However, the military believes that there was fraudulent behavior in the election, demands an investigation, and postpones the convening of a new federal parliament meeting. But the Democratic League refused.

After being detained by the military, Aung San Suu Kyi and others were charged with multiple charges. Aung San Suu Kyi herself has a sentence of up to 33 years.

For over two years, Aung San Suu Kyi has been detained in an attached facility of a prison in the capital of Myanmar, Naypyidaw.

Until last month, a rare visit by a Thai diplomat broke the confinement.

According to Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tun, he held a private meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi on July 9th, which lasted for over an hour.

This is Aung San Suu Kyi's first time in over two years of imprisonment that she has been allowed to meet with senior foreign government officials.

Dun said that Aung San Suu Kyi is in good health and supports dialogue to help resolve the domestic crisis in Myanmar.

In addition to visiting Aung San Suu Kyi, during his visit to Myanmar, Dun also held talks with the Chairman of the Myanmar National Management Council, Min Aung Lai.

After a political upheaval in February 2021, state power was transferred to the Commander in Chief of the Myanmar Defense Forces, Min Ang Lai. The General Command of the National Defense Force has announced the establishment of the National Management Committee, with Min Ang Lai serving as the chairman of the committee.

After the window opened a gap, sunlight penetrated through it.

It is reported that Aung San Suu Kyi was transferred to her residence in the government building on the evening of July 24th. Although Aung San Suu Kyi will still be under house arrest, many media outlets have reported using the phrase "Aung San Suu Kyi's release from prison" to convey a clear signal of change.

Next, there will be a pardon and sentence reduction on August 1st. A series of movements seemed to reveal that the ropes bound to Aung San Suu Kyi were gradually loosening.

Why ease the posture?

Professor Song Qingrun from the Asia Research Department of the School of Asia at Beijing Foreign Studies University believes that the successive softening of Myanmar's State Administration's attitude and measures towards Aung San Suu Kyi may be due to several factors.

One is to respond to internal and external calls and alleviate pressure. In the past two and a half years, various forces within Myanmar and the international community have repeatedly called on and even exerted pressure on the Myanmar National Management Committee to promote the reconciliation process in Myanmar.

The second is to promote the continuous realization of reconciliation and peace in the country, and alleviate various difficulties in politics, diplomacy, economy, society, and other aspects.

Since the political upheaval in February 2021, the overall situation in Myanmar has improved. The security situation has improved, the economy is gradually recovering, and social unrest is easing.

However, local conflicts and violent attacks still occur from time to time; After the comprehensive attack of COVID-19 epidemic, domestic political situation changes, western sanctions and other factors, the economy has shown signs of stabilizing, but the foundation is still fragile. Currently, issues such as high inflation, withdrawal of some foreign investment, and reduced employment opportunities still exist, and people's livelihoods remain difficult. Diplomacy has also encountered complex situations, falling into its biggest predicament since 2011.

"The latest reconciliation measures are conducive to improving Myanmar's relations with the international community, attracting investment, expanding foreign trade, and promoting personnel exchanges with the international community."

The third is to prepare for the new general election and continue to promote political transformation.

The dialogue and reconciliation between the Myanmar National Management Council and Aung San Suu Kyi is a key component of Myanmar's peace process, and whether the two sides can continue to engage in dialogue and promote reconciliation has a significant impact on Myanmar's internal reconciliation, peace, elections, and other processes.

Qu Jianwen, President of the Yunnan Association for Southeast Asian Studies, analyzed that the Myanmar military's easing of stance towards Aung San Suu Kyi not only considers easing domestic and international pressure, but also hopes to release goodwill to Aung San Suu Kyi, use her influence to ease domestic conflicts and tensions, and provide a buffer time for winning the election.

"In the past two years of sudden changes in the political situation, the domestic situation in Myanmar has become more complex." Qu Jianwen said that after the overthrow of the Democratic League government, a shadow government was established, and the People's Defense Army rose up again. The resistance against the Myanmar National Defense Army has not stopped. The Myanmar National Defense Forces are not only facing ongoing conflicts with ethnic minority armed groups, but also facing challenges from the People's Defense Forces, resulting in extremely intense domestic conflicts.

In addition, the reason why the Burmese military has loosened ties with Aung San Suu Kyi is also due to the efforts and constructive role played by the international community behind it. Including ASEAN, the United Nations, and China, they have also maintained contact with all parties in Myanmar and actively promoted peace talks.

The general election has been postponed again

The outside world also noticed that just the day before the lenient treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi and Wen Min, the Myanmar State Administration decided on Monday to extend the state of emergency for another six months, which means that the general election will be postponed again.

In February 2021, when the military took action against the Democratic League, it declared a one-year state of emergency and promised to hold a new general election in one year, and state power would also be transferred to the newly elected political party. However, in August of the same year, the Myanmar National Management Council announced that a new general election would be held in the second half of 2023.

"In order to hold free and fair elections, as well as to be able to vote without any fear, necessary arrangements still need to be made in terms of security, and therefore the state of emergency needs to be extended," the Myanmar National Management Council said in a statement on Monday

Song Qingrun believes that the delay in the general election is due to the immaturity of various conditions.

One is that there are still hidden dangers in the security situation. Conflicts may still erupt in local areas and at certain sensitive moments, making it difficult to fully ensure the safe conduct of activities such as elections, voting, and counting in the current situation.

Secondly, the reconciliation process has not yet achieved satisfactory results for all parties.

The third issue is that the main factions have not yet reached a consensus on issues such as election timing and inclusiveness.

The fourth is that the necessary steps and preparations before the election, such as conducting a pre election census to obtain voter data and preparing for the re registration of political parties, have not yet been completed.

"The possibility of holding a general election this year is unlikely, but as long as the conditions are met, the election will be held sooner or later, it's just a matter of time."

Qu Jianwen also stated that there is no sign of an election in the short term at least. The restart of the general election is based on three conditions: a revised and recognized constitution and election law, as well as a relatively peaceful social environment, which Myanmar currently does not have.

Is the reconciliation process at dawn?

For over two years, apart from occasional appearances in the news during trials and sentencing, imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi has almost disappeared from public view.

Now, due to her reduced sentence, Aung San Suu Kyi has returned to the center of public opinion.

As a pivotal political figure in Myanmar, does the subtle changes that Aung San Suu Kyi has made indicate that other changes are brewing in the Myanmar situation? Even Aung San Suu Kyi's own fate will come to a new watershed?

In Song Qingrun's view, the goodwill signs released by the Myanmar State Administration to Aung San Suu Kyi indicate the dawn and progress of Myanmar's domestic reconciliation process. These signs may continue in the future, and it is not ruled out that new reconciliation measures may emerge.

At the domestic level, officials of the Myanmar National Management Council or factions and individuals with good relations with the government may engage in ongoing dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi;

At the international level, in addition to the previously visited Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Thailand, future political figures or related figures from ASEAN or other organizations or countries may also meet with Aung San Suu Kyi.

However, Song Qingrun holds a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the reconciliation process in Myanmar. This process cannot be completed overnight, there will inevitably be twists and turns. It is necessary to observe the strength, speed, and scope of reconciliation to determine its direction. For example, in future elections, all parties will still fiercely compete for political rights, and whether the winning party's future government formation and political power distribution pattern are inclusive and satisfactory to all parties will still affect the stability of Myanmar's political situation and political transformation process. "However, Myanmar's political transformation is a consensus among all parties, and the overall direction will not be reversed."

Regarding Aung San Suu Kyi's future political prospects and whether the Democratic League can participate in the new general election, Song Qingrun believes that it will depend on multiple factors: the political interests of all parties need to be coordinated, the atmosphere and results of negotiations and interactions among all parties, the progress of reconciliation, and so on.

Qu Jianwen is relatively pessimistic about the prospects of the situation in Myanmar.

In his opinion, a slight sign of loosening is a good thing, but there is no need to have too high expectations.

Firstly, the military's current stance towards Aung San Suu Kyi is very limited, and legally speaking, she is still serving her sentence. At present, no changes have touched upon the core of the political reconciliation process, namely the revision of the constitution and election laws.

Secondly, the political upheaval in 2021 has made the reconciliation process in Myanmar more complex.

In the past, the mention of reconciliation in Myanmar referred to national reconciliation, political transformation, and the gradual completion of national reconciliation in the process of political transformation. Now, political transformation is facing setbacks. "Before promoting reconciliation between the government and ethnic minority armed groups, it is necessary to resolve the conflict between the military and the Democratic League. However, from the current situation, it is more difficult for various factions to reach political consensus than in the past, and national reconciliation is even more distant."

"At least in a few years, the situation in Myanmar will not make significant changes," said Qu Jianwen.