A "tone setting" meeting?, Depth | NATO Summit is Coming Soon China | Russia | Ukraine | Vilnius, the Capital of Lithuania | NATO Summit

As the Ukrainian crisis continues, the NATO summit will be held in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius from the 11th to the 12th. The highlight of the summit is to agree on a plan to bring Ukraine closer to NATO, including the first meeting of the NATO Ukraine Council scheduled for the 12th, to send a strong signal of support for Ukraine.

Analysis suggests that NATO, led by the United States, has deeply intervened in the Ukrainian crisis through military aid to Ukraine. On the other hand, it refuses to reflect on the underlying reasons for the escalation of the crisis and continues to implement NATO's eastward expansion, northward expansion, and "Asia Pacific ization". These practices will further worsen the security situation in Europe and bring unrest and challenges to the Asia Pacific region.

A "tone setting" meeting

This summit is the first since Finland became the 31st NATO member state in April this year, and also the closest NATO summit to Russia since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.

Vilnius is only 32 kilometers away from the border between Lithuania and Belarus, and 151 kilometers away from the border with Russia. In order to strengthen the security of the summit, a total of about 1000 soldiers were dispatched from 16 NATO member countries, and some countries also provided advanced air defense systems. Reuters commented that NATO countries, while nominally providing security for the summit, are actually taking the opportunity to "showcase their muscles" to Russia.

At the previous briefing, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg introduced the key agenda of the summit.

Firstly, the participants are expected to agree on a plan that includes three elements to bring Ukraine closer to NATO. These three elements are: agreeing on a multi-year aid plan for Ukraine to ensure comprehensive interoperability with NATO; Enhancing political relations between the two sides through the establishment of the NATO Ukraine Council; Discuss Ukraine's accession to NATO.

Secondly, all parties will seek to strengthen defense and deterrence through three new regional defense plans to address the "Russian threat". The plan will cover the Arctic region of the Atlantic and Europe, the Baltic Sea region and Central Europe, as well as the Mediterranean and Black Sea. In order to implement the above plan, NATO will require 300000 soldiers to be in a high state of readiness.

Once again, "expansion" is also a key focus area of the summit. Stoltenberg said that efforts will be made to ensure that Sweden joins the treaty as soon as possible. Türkiye, Sweden and NATO held trilateral talks in Belgium on the 6th. Turkey still did not agree to Sweden's "accession" to the Treaty, but the three parties agreed to negotiate again on the 10th before the opening of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Finally, Stoltenberg stated that the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea will participate in the NATO summit for the second consecutive year. "We are collaborating more closely on issues such as cybersecurity, maritime security, and new technologies."

Speaking of the background of this summit, Cui Hongjian, Director of the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of International Studies, pointed out that the Ukrainian crisis has been ongoing for over a year and Ukraine is launching a counterattack. NATO hopes to set a tone on several matters.

One issue is the relationship between NATO and Ukraine. Some NATO countries hope to promote Ukraine's accession process, because the longer the Ukrainian crisis is delayed, the greater the possibility of internal differences or even a reversal of stance within NATO. Therefore, they hope to anchor the relationship between the two and stabilize their support for Ukraine.

The second issue is the relationship between NATO and Russia. After the release of the new strategic concept document at last year's NATO summit, NATO hopes to summarize its military deployments in Europe over the past period of time and make more systematic and targeted plans for Russia, which may include more frequent joint exercises, deployment of more highly prepared troops, strengthening command and control structures, etc.

The third issue is the expansion of NATO, which includes two levels. The first is to expand its membership at the European level. All parties hope to achieve a compromise, which will make Türkiye open to Sweden. The second is to expand its forces outside the North Atlantic region, such as the second participation of four Asia Pacific countries in the NATO summit and discussions on establishing a NATO liaison office in Japan, with the aim of extending NATO's reach to the Asia Pacific region.

Teng Jianqun, Director of the Diplomatic Research Center at Hunan Normal University, stated that the United States hopes to continue strengthening its control over Europe and NATO, promoting NATO expansion - not only by attracting new European members, but also expanding its sphere of influence to the Asia Pacific region.

"After 1999, NATO's defense zones, missions, and missions have undergone significant changes." Teng Jianqun said, "If the previous focus was mainly on ensuring the homeland security of member countries, now it is projecting military power to various parts of the world to protect so-called Western 'democracy' and values. NATO has degenerated into a tool for US military intervention in foreign affairs."

Another background is the surging undercurrents within NATO. There is still some debate between the new and old members. The new members are demanding that the United States strengthen its military deployment and provide realistic security guarantees. Poland has even requested to join NATO's nuclear sharing program, while some old members are cautious. There is also controversy surrounding the European security situation, especially Ukraine's accession and treatment issues.

"The above are all adjustments in the changing geopolitical security situation, and the United States should use this adjustment process to increase control over all parties." Teng Jianqun summarized.

Pacify Ukraine through mechanisms?

The highlights of this NATO summit are quite prominent, manifested in several aspects.

The first and foremost issue remains the relationship between NATO, Ukraine, and Russia.

TASS reported, citing the official agenda document of the NATO summit, that NATO has confirmed the establishment of the "NATO Ukraine Council" and will hold its first meeting on the 12th. According to the Ukrainian newspaper Pravda, it is not ruled out that Ukrainian President Zelensky may personally attend the meeting.

Cui Hongjian pointed out that the internal divisions within NATO have made it difficult for Ukraine to obtain the coveted membership in the short term. Therefore, NATO first established the relationship between the two sides through the Council mechanism. "NATO has spoken: Kiev will be seen as an equal partner. In the future, it needs to be observed to what extent this mechanism can replace member states' identity - can all other rights be provided to Ukraine except for Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Collective Defense?"

"On the other hand, it also depends on how NATO can fulfill its' unrestricted support for Ukraine '." Cui Hongjian said, "The United States has recently taken a wave of rhythm and announced a new round of military support for Ukraine, including cluster ammunition, but has not received some support from allies. Another thing to observe is how NATO will link the resolution of the Ukrainian issue with dealing with Russia and transform it into a long-term advantage against Russia."

Analysis suggests that the NATO Ukraine Council aims to appease Ukraine. Teng Jianqun said that this can make Ukraine feel like it has stepped into NATO with one foot, and may be further refined in areas such as military assistance and military training in the future. "This arrangement has more political symbolic significance as it requires a permanent platform for communication and coordination with Ukraine."

Another highlight - NATO's "European expansion" process, is also highly anticipated.

CNN believes that Sweden's inability to "cross the goal" due to Türkiye's opposition may become a major embarrassment and weakness of NATO.

Cui Hongjian believes that Sweden's membership issue is not expected to be completely resolved at the summit, which requires formal approval by Türkiye's parliamentary procedures. But leaders of various countries will expect Turkey to issue a "release" signal within this year.

Another highlight is that NATO's "facade responsibility" will also be further finalized through this summit.

Currently, NATO has agreed to extend the term of Secretary General Stoltenberg for another year, until October 1, 2024. It is reported that this decision will be recognized by the heads of state and government of member countries during the NATO summit.

The reason why Stoltenberg stayed in office was mainly because his most promising successor, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, was forced to withdraw without the support of the United States. An analysis suggests that Wallace was "out of favor" because he agreed with French President Macron's view: "In procurement, the answer to all questions is not America first." The Economist magazine stated, "This is a sentence that NATO Secretary General will never say."

Cui Hongjian believes that NATO is in a special period, and allowing Stoltenberg to stay is also to avoid greater conflicts and divisions within the organization.

Be wary of "soft expansion" in the Asia Pacific region

Teng Jianqun believes that last year's NATO summit first mentioned China in the new strategic concept document, and this year's summit is also a focus of attention on how the United States can guide NATO's sphere of influence to the Asia Pacific region and serve the competition of major powers.

In Teng Jianqun's view, NATO has become a strategic tool for the United States to carry private goods and promote global hegemony. Washington's strategic adjustment has directly driven NATO's strategic adjustment, especially the implementation of "soft expansion" in the Asia Pacific region - not including formal member states, but by strengthening mechanisms such as liaison offices and network defense centers, extending NATO's military reach, and expanding its partnership network. Some European and Asian countries have also introduced their own Indo Pacific strategies, hoping to seek geopolitical interests in the Asia Pacific direction.

Cui Hongjian said that NATO's "Asia Pacific ization" has two manifestations. The first is to export its defense concepts and mechanisms to the Asia Pacific region, promoting the importance of collective security and its "successful experience.". The second is to substantially strengthen relations with Asia Pacific countries. But there is a real and real issue in this process, as some European countries believe that NATO is geographically limited to the North Atlantic region, and they are concerned about the increasing probability of European countries being involved in Asia Pacific security risks.

One example is that French President Macron expressed opposition on the 7th regarding NATO's consideration of establishing a liaison office in Japan. The French side has repeatedly expressed opposition to NATO shifting its focus to Asia.

Provoking confrontation is detrimental to peace

Cui Hongjian believes that NATO's eastward expansion, northward expansion, and "Asia Pacific" may lead to a series of consequences, such as intensifying the game in the Arctic region, and transmitting risks through issues such as the Russia Japan territorial dispute and affecting the security situation of the entire Northeast Asia, etc.

In Cui Hongjian's view, there is no sign of transition in European security in the short term. Even if Russia is willing to compromise, NATO will take measures to stimulate Russia. The United States is making use of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to create and exaggerate security threats and build the rationality of NATO's existence. But in the Asia Pacific direction, if regional countries attach importance to balancing development and security interests, then the United States' tactics will lack a market.

Teng Jianqun said that Japan is relatively active in NATO's "Asia Pacific ization", but this behavior may lead to chaos, not only undermining regional stability and development, but also potentially causing Japan to suffer first in the event of a conflict. NATO, a military bloc born during the Cold War, will not bring any benefits to its involvement in the Asia Pacific region, but will only provoke confrontation between factions.

Two analysts also believe that although the Ukrainian crisis has "activated" NATO, the diversity and interests of NATO member states determine that there are still contradictions and differences within the organization, which also creates a significant gap between its strategic planning and final implementation.

Teng Jianqun said that an example is that this summit will once again talk about the issue of "meeting military spending standards", and 23 out of the 31 NATO member countries still have not met the requirement of defense spending accounting for 2% of GDP. And on issues such as threat perception, NATO expansion, and Secretary General selection, member countries are also not united.

The website of Barron Weekly believes that NATO wants to showcase its strength, but its internal dynamics remain fragile. The Politician website believes that US President Biden is going to promote NATO's unity at the summit, but things have become a bit complicated. What NATO can do is answer some short-term questions, while big issues that require more consensus will be delayed in discussion.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that NATO's new focus on China has caused internal tension. Critics refer to NATO's strengthened ties with Asia Pacific countries as a "mission deviation". The US public opinion claims that many European countries heavily rely on China's investment and trade, resulting in differences in cooperating with the US in dealing with China.