Test the US Indo Pacific Strategy?, Canada and India are competing as partners | India | United States

One is in North America and the other is in South Asia, but both are members of the Commonwealth and important partners of the United States. In recent days, Canada and India, two distant countries, have been embroiled in a diplomatic dispute over a murder case, causing the aftermath to shake the Western world. As the incident continues to ferment, what kind of interests will the countries and their allies face? What choice will the United States make?

Imprint "Draw a knife and face each other"

According to Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News, and other reports, on September 18th, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau dropped a "heavy bomb" in a parliamentary speech, accusing the Indian government of being associated with the shooting of Canadian citizen Nigel.

Nijar, currently 45 years old, is a prominent Sikh figure who immigrated to Canada from India in 1997. His political views are radical, including supporting independence in some parts of India. In July 2020, he was listed as a terrorist by the Indian government. In June of this year, he was shot and killed outside a Sikh cultural center in British Columbia, Canada.

Trudeau pointed out that any association between foreign governments and the aforementioned murder incident is an unacceptable violation of Canadian sovereignty. Later that day, the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the expulsion of an Indian diplomat who was suspected of being involved in the murder of Nigel.

Faced with Canada's fierce offensive, India showed no signs of weakness and retaliated tooth for tooth. On the 19th, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the Canadian allegations as "absurd", accusing the Canadian government of condoning anti Indian activities and expelling Canadian diplomats in exchange.

After a battle, the relationship between the two countries suddenly became tense. The international public opinion was in a state of uproar.

For a long time in the past, the relationship between the two countries has been developing in a positive direction due to factors such as geopolitical, economic connections, and population trends. India stands out in Canada's "Indo Pacific Strategy" launched last year. The two countries have conducted multiple rounds of negotiations around the Early Progress Trade Agreement.

However, the conflict between the two countries over the Sikh separatist movement has a long history.

Sikhs are a religious minority group in India. For decades, some Sikhs have been seeking to establish an independent state in Punjab, even resorting to violent means. India has previously classified some Sikhs and Sikh organizations as extremist and terrorist groups.

Except for India, Canada has the highest number of Sikhs in the world, with a population of over 770000. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of anti Indian protests by Sikhs in Canada, and the Indian government has put increasing pressure on Ottawa. However, Ottawa has been unwilling to address India's concerns. When Trudeau came to power in 2015, he also appointed four Sikhs as cabinet members.

Since the beginning of this month, the cracks in the relationship between the two countries have become apparent. The Canadian government unexpectedly suspended negotiations on the Early Progress Trade Agreement with India and also halted the trade delegation's planned visit to India in early October. Indian Prime Minister Modi did not hold a formal meeting with visiting Trudeau during the G20 summit in New Delhi, and also criticized the Canadian government for condoning anti Indian activities by Sikhs during a brief exchange session.

Nowadays, with serious accusations and equal expulsion, as the outside world has said, both sides have "drawn swords".

The impact should not be underestimated

As the incident escalates, what further actions will be taken by the two countries, and how their relationship will be damaged, have attracted external attention.

Analysis suggests that, driven by domestic political factors, both governments will make every effort to demonstrate toughness. Canada may continue to seek allies for cooperation. India may take further countermeasures, such as lowering the level of diplomatic relations and requesting Canada to withdraw its accusations.

Affected by this, the relationship between the two countries will continue to be damaged, with bilateral trade worth $17 billion possibly being the first to be affected. The growing trend of Indian immigration may come to an end, which may pose a drag on the Canadian economy.

At the same time, in the long run, Canada's ability to advance the Indo Pacific strategy and join the US Indo Pacific architecture may be weakened.

Currently, the United States is building an alliance framework in the Indo Pacific region. India has become its key target of attraction and has been included in multiple "small circles" such as the US Japan India Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Indo Pacific Economic Framework. However, Canada did not receive an invitation from the United States. Canada and the United States do not have a common economic or security mechanism in the Indo Pacific region. Canadian scholars are concerned that India may block Canada's "integration" plan.

Of course, Canada is not the only party affected. The accusation of murder may harm India's national image and Western trust in it. If Canadian officials discover clear evidence of India's involvement in the murder, Canada's Five Eyes Alliance partners may reassess intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation with India.

The United States is in a dilemma

According to the Canadian side, Trudeau has informed Allied leaders such as US President Biden of the aforementioned allegations. On the 19th, Western countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia expressed concerns about this matter and emphasized maintaining contact with Canada in the investigation.

It is reported that although Canada has requested the United States to condemn India, the United States and other Western countries do not want to provoke India and are working hard to ensure that this controversy does not affect other diplomatic relations. However, compared to other countries, the United States is in a special situation. Canada and India are both important partners of the United States, and public opinion believes that the cold relationship between the two countries will inevitably put the United States in a dilemma, even in a win-win situation.

On the one hand, Canada is a member of the "Five Eyes Alliance" and a NATO ally that shares the highest level of intelligence information with the United States. It openly accuses India of political assassinations, making it difficult for the United States to stand idly by. On the other hand, India plays a crucial role in the geopolitical chess game of the United States, not only as the world's fifth largest economy and a populous country, but also as a potential fortress for the United States to compete as a major power.

Therefore, the balancing action between Canada and India by the United States has become particularly tricky. If it were to side with Ottawa, New Delhi would pick up weapons and question Washington's sincerity. If it stands on the side of New Delhi, it will conflict with a NATO ally.

So far, Western countries are still waiting for the progress of the investigation. Some comments suggest that Canada is best accustomed to loneliness. Because in the coming decades, India will become an important strategic partner of the United States, handling the US India relationship correctly is particularly important for the US's Indo Pacific strategy.