Showcasing a leadership journey? Embarrassing sewing journey?, Depth | Biden Embarking on European Tour | US Nordic Leaders Meeting | NATO Summit | UK | Embarking on European Tour | Biden|

With the landing of Air Force One at Stansted Airport in London on the 9th, US President Biden's European tour began. From the 9th to the 13th, Biden will visit the UK, Lithuania, and Finland to attend two summits of NATO, US Nordic leaders.

It is believed that compared to his visit to Spain to attend the NATO summit a year ago, Biden's visit to Europe this time is facing a new situation - the Ukrainian crisis has entered its second year, and the cracks within transatlantic allies are becoming increasingly apparent. The US hopes to demonstrate leadership and strengthen cohesion through this visit, but whether it can be achieved has been questioned.

There are new goals in the new situation

From the itinerary, Biden's five-day trip to Europe is compact and intensive. On the first stop in the UK, Biden held talks with British Prime Minister Sunak on the 10th. This is the sixth meeting between the two since Sunak took office in October last year. Both sides focus on topics such as bilateral relations and the Ukrainian issue.

On that day, Biden also went to Windsor Castle to visit Charles III. This is the first meeting between the two since Charles III was crowned. The issue of addressing climate change and related financing has attracted attention from both sides.

Subsequently, Biden will stay in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius for two days on the 11th and 12th to attend the NATO summit. The summit seeks to adopt a long-term aid plan for Ukraine, a new regional defense plan, and discuss issues such as expansion. Biden is also scheduled to give a speech at Vilnius University on Wednesday.

Finland is the last stop of this trip. Biden will meet with Finnish leaders in Helsinki to celebrate Finland's accession to NATO and attend a summit between the leaders of the United States and Nordic countries.

From the perspective of timing and background, Wang Yong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Peking University and director of the Center for American Studies, believes that compared to attending the NATO summit in Madrid a year ago, Biden's visit to Europe this week will face different domestic and international situations.

Externally, the Ukrainian crisis has entered its second year and is at a critical moment. On the one hand, Ukraine is currently intensifying its counterattack, aiming to recover the land occupied by Russia this autumn, but progress is slow. On the other hand, the prolonged crisis in Ukraine has had a significant impact on the European economy and society, leading to increasingly clear differences between Europe and the United States, and a louder voice for Europe's strategic autonomy. At the same time, issues such as US aid to Ukraine's cluster ammunition and Ukraine's accession to the treaty have also sparked controversy and disagreements within allies.

Internally, domestic politics in the United States are undergoing changes. As the 2024 US election approaches, the competition between the two parties is becoming increasingly fierce, and this competition is also reflected in foreign relations. For example, the Republican Party expressed concern about its indefinite support for Ukraine. Trump advocated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be ended, and Biden's popularity was not lost, which caused greater pressure on Biden.

In the above context, analysts believe that Biden's visit to Europe has several objectives. First, consult with European allies to strengthen support for Ukraine, especially how to let NATO increase its intervention in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and further weaken Russia. Secondly, in response to some differences and contradictions, "coordinate positions with European allies and NATO member countries to further enhance internal cohesion," said Yuan Zheng, Deputy Director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Thirdly, through diplomacy with Europe, we will continue to consolidate our alliance system and add points to our re-election campaign.

Customized routes are not without considerations

In the eyes of analysts, Biden's choice of visiting country this time is also quite particular.

Yuan Zheng pointed out that US diplomacy has its own focus and special intentions, and the customized visit route is also considered.

The first stop visit to the UK can be described as the usual diplomatic routine of the United States. To leverage the special relationship between the United States and Britain to exert influence on Europe and NATO. For example, before the NATO summit, both sides attempted to "confront" some issues in order to reach a tacit understanding. Visiting Lithuania and Finland also involves the US diplomatic layout. The relationship between the two countries and Russia has been complex and delicate in history, and in reality, they are both on the front line of confrontation against Russia. In particular, Finland and other Nordic countries, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have reversed their balance and neutrality between the East and the West and turned to the West. Biden hopes to express support for these countries through visits in order to better leverage their strategic role in restraining Russia.

Wang Yong also believes that the trip to the Three Kingdoms demonstrates the strategic layout of the United States. Firstly, the Anglo American alliance is the core of US policy towards Europe and requires further consolidation of relations with the UK. Secondly, visiting Lithuania is not only related to attending the NATO summit, but may also have one more thought. Lithuania supports US foreign policy and geopolitical strategy in its relations with China, and this visit can serve as a reward and support for opposing Lithuania. As for visiting Finland and holding a meeting between the leaders of the United States and Nordic countries, it is an intention to consolidate relations with Nordic countries in the new situation of some Nordic countries changing their course and joining NATO.

It is worth noting that the summit led by the United States with leaders of Nordic countries is seen as a desire by the United States to reshape the defense capabilities of the Nordic region and enhance its ability to resist Russia after Finland's accession to NATO.

"In NATO's new north, there is a new opportunity to contain Russia," Reuters said. NATO's expansion to the north will reshape the European security landscape, from the Baltic Sea to the high north region, potentially becoming a comprehensive operational area for NATO.

Yuan Zheng added that formally speaking, the United States convening a summit with Nordic leaders reflects the small multilateral diplomatic model advocated by the Biden administration. From the content, it is expected that the summit will also involve issues such as defense, navigation, and addressing climate change in the Arctic region.

"Leadership" may be difficult to achieve

When it comes to Biden's trip to Europe, US National Security Advisor Sullivan loudly declared that the visit will "showcase Biden's leadership on the world stage.". However, public opinion is somewhat indifferent, believing that this may be an awkward and challenging journey.

At a stop in the UK, it is believed that Biden's special visit seems to be a consideration for appeasing allies and repairing relationships.

In the opinion of British public opinion, Biden seems to have the suspicion of "neglecting" Britain. In April of this year, to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Belfast Agreement, which was pushed by the United States, Biden went to the UK and Ireland, but did not meet Charles III, and also hastily met with Sunak. In May, Biden was absent from Charles III's coronation ceremony again and was replaced by the First Lady, Gill. The British Broadcasting Corporation stated that Biden may not have intended to offend, but his absence was eye-catching.

There have been disagreements between the United States and Britain regarding the candidate for the next NATO Secretary General. Biden did not endorse Wallace, the British Defense Secretary who was "the pioneer of supporting Ukraine", but instead supported von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission and the former German defense minister.

The British public did not have high expectations for the visit of the US President. "Biden's stay was so brief that the rift between the transatlantic allies may need to be resolved through a warm handshake and sufficient etiquette," BBC commented.

Attending the NATO summit in Lithuania is seen as the highlight of Biden's trip, but it is also described as a "test drive" on how to unite NATO. Because a series of disagreements will test Biden's ability to mend.

The first issue before us is the issue of cluster ammunition.

Before his visit to Europe, Biden defended this "difficult decision". He said that providing cluster ammunition is the key to this war, which can help Kiev break through the Russian defense and accelerate the counterattack. And the Ukrainian government has promised in writing to use this controversial ammunition with caution.

However, public opinion believes that this explanation is not enough to quell doubts from NATO allies. European countries such as the UK, Germany, and Spain have clearly expressed opposition. Due to over two-thirds of NATO member countries signing international conventions banning highly lethal cluster ammunition, Biden will still face questions from allies during his visit to Europe.

There is also the most thorny issue of Ukraine's accession to the treaty.

There are differences among the parties regarding when to issue an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO.

The United States and Germany insist that the current focus should be on providing weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, rather than taking more provocative measures such as inviting Ukraine to join the treaty.

On the eve of his visit to Europe, Biden seemed to have set the tone on this issue in an interview with CNN. He said that it is too early for Ukraine to join NATO now, because the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still going on. Once Ukraine joins now, it means "we are at war with Russia".

However, NATO's eastern wing countries hope to take swift action to provide Ukraine with a stronger guarantee of joining the treaty, as a way to counter attack and deter Russia.

In the view of the Associated Press, the compromise solution that the NATO summit can reach is to establish a so-called NATO Ukraine Council and give Kiev a seat at the negotiation table to enhance NATO Ukraine relations, that's all.

There is also the problem of Sweden's delay in joining the treaty.

Since Türkiye and Hungary, members of NATO, have never given the green light, Sweden's accession to NATO has been sluggish.

Before his visit to Europe, Biden talked with President Erdogan of Türkiye by telephone and expressed his wish to welcome Sweden to join NATO as soon as possible. Both sides agreed to hold talks during the NATO summit. It is expected that Biden will put pressure on Türkiye to allow Sweden to join NATO, but it is unknown whether Erdogan will buy it.

Wang Yong believes that at present, compared with Türkiye, the United States does not have many bargaining chips. On the contrary, Erdogan has just won re-election, his domestic position is stable, and he is more adept at handling major powers, so he can completely ignore the pressure from the United States.

In addition, NATO member states have also exposed the internal temperature differences within this military alliance in terms of meeting military spending standards, selecting the next Secretary General, and NATO's development towards the Asia Pacific region. For example, French President Macron recently opposed NATO's establishment of a liaison office in Japan.

"The renowned NATO unity is facing new pressure," commented the Associated Press.

Yuan Zheng pointed out that since the end of the cold war, NATO has increasingly lost its sense of existence and direction, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has given NATO new vitality. But after NATO is once again reorganized and on the road, especially as it expands from its original military alliance to a political alliance, there will inevitably be more internal conflicts.

As for the trip to Finland, it may be a superficial visit for Biden. Because Finland has officially become a member of NATO.

However, there are also reminders from American media that although this station may seem like a victory celebration, it may also be a reminder of unfinished business. After all, Sweden, which applied for "treaty entry" at the same time as Finland, is still waiting outside the door.

In Wang Yong's view, it may be more difficult for Biden to achieve his goal of showcasing leadership on the world stage during his trip than in the past. With the changes in the international and domestic situation, the protracted and even protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict may further expand the differences between the United States and Europe.

The Washington Post also pointed out that Biden hopes to awaken a sense of common mission through this visit to Europe and convey a message to Russia that NATO remains committed to long-term support for Ukraine. However, as conflicts persist, increasingly apparent cracks may make it harder to achieve unity, and world leaders may find it increasingly difficult to reach consensus.