Will military intervention be imminent?, Depth | The aftermath of the Niger coup continues | The aftermath of the coup | Niger

Since the coup in Niger on July 26th, the aftermath of the political earthquake has continued.

On July 31st, coup soldiers arrested several ministers and senior members of the ruling party. On the same day, the transitional governments of Burkina Faso and Mali issued a joint statement stating that any military intervention in Niger would be equivalent to declaring war on both countries. This statement directly points to the Western Community's option of "military intervention" in Nepal.

At a time of stalemate among all parties, a series of issues have attracted high attention from the international community: what stage is the situation in Niger? Will military intervention and countermeasures be imminent? What impact will the coup bring to the region?

The collapse of the lighthouse

Niger belongs to a landlocked country in West Africa and declared independence from French colonial rule in 1960. Since independence, the country has experienced four coups and multiple attempted coups, making it one of the countries with the most coups in contemporary world history.

The Sahel region where Niger is located is also known as the "zone of frequent coups" by the outside world. The Sahel region is a 320 to 480 kilometer wide region south of the Sahara Desert in Africa, spanning countries such as Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

For a long time, Niger has been one of the key allies of Western countries in counter-terrorism in the Sahel region. The targets of the attack include the Al Qaeda terrorist organization and the extremist organization ISIS. However, after multiple coups in Mali and Burkina Faso from 2020 to 2022, the military governments that took over the power both parted ways with France.

Al Jazeera reported that only Niger remains as a "stable lighthouse" in the Sahel region in Western countries. However, with the country's coup, the only remaining allies in the West are likely to be unable to be preserved.

The prelude to this coup began last Wednesday. At that time, the Niger Presidential Guard overthrew and detained President Bazum. The reason for the coup was the continuous deterioration of the security situation in Niger and the government's inadequate economic and social governance. Bazum was elected as president in 2021 and is also the first democratically elected leader to succeed the country since independence, but the opposition has questioned his excessive pro French stance.

After detaining the president, the coup soldiers immediately established the National Defense Committee, with former Presidential Guard Commander Chiani serving as the chairman of the committee. Regional countries, the African Union, the United States, and the European Union have all expressed their views on this matter. They condemned the coup and refused to recognize the military regime.

Among them, the attitude of the Western Community is the most noteworthy, as it first imposes sanctions on the military personnel involved in the Niger coup; The second is to demand that the coup soldiers release Bazum within a week and allow him to return to power, otherwise force may be used to resolve the issue; The third is to dispatch the President of Benin to Niger for mediation.

In recent days, there has been no significant progress in the situation. The situation is still fermenting step by step in the statements and actions of all parties.

On July 30th, pro coup protesters stormed the French Embassy in Niger and were dispersed by the police. French President Macron stated that any attack against French citizens and French interests in Nepal will be met with an "immediate and severe" response.

Subsequently, on July 31st, the Nigerian coup soldiers arrested 180 members of the ruling party, including several high-ranking officials such as the former Minister of Energy and the Minister of Mines. On the same day, the coup army claimed that the overthrown former government had "authorized" France to carry out military strikes on the Niger Presidential Palace. However, the French Foreign Minister denies this claim.

The latest news is that the transitional governments of Burkina Faso and Mali have issued a joint statement stating that any military intervention in Niger is equivalent to declaring war on both countries. This statement directly refers to the Western Community's option of "military intervention" in Nepal. Foreign media reported that the situation has become more tense and complex since the coup.

Ignite the fuse

When it comes to the cause of this incident, analysts believe that besides the reasons publicly claimed by the coup soldiers, other backgrounds cannot be ignored.

He Wenping, a researcher at the West Asia and Africa Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the original intention of the Nepal Presidential Guard was to provide "close protection" to the President, but it is like a "double-edged sword" - when the positions and interests of the Guard and the President are inconsistent, it is inevitable that there will be a defection. Similar events have occurred in the history of Niger.

He Wenping believes that the leader of the Nepalese Presidential Guard, who launched the coup, is a close ally of the former president, but does not deal with the current president, and there are rumors that Bazum wants to dismiss the Guard. The captain of the guard is now the first to take action. In addition, the military complained about the President's insufficient counter-terrorism support and dissatisfaction with his governance, and various conflicts and personal grievances ultimately ignited the coup fuse.

In He Wenping's view, the Niger coup is also related to the transmission effect of frequent coups in countries in the Sahel region. Burkina Faso, Mali and other countries have experienced coups before, and the anti French sentiment among the people in the region has risen due to France's ineffective anti-terrorism efforts in West Africa over the past decade. Therefore, coup soldiers also have the intention of using "seizing power" to point their fingers at Europe and America.

Zhu Ming, Director of the Regional Cooperation Department of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that many African countries have a tradition of coups, which is related to the imperfect national construction.

"Because many countries in Africa, especially in West Africa, used to be colonies of Britain and France. After their independence, the Western political system of political and military separation may not necessarily be effective in the local area." Zhu Ming said, "If the president has strong abilities, good economic development, high military obedience, and still peaceful relations. Once the president and the country are in a weak period, military coups often follow."

Zhu Ming believes that the current situation in Niger is not too serious. Because the coup soldiers did not resort to extreme measures, they still ensured the safety of Bazum and the overall situation in the country was controllable.

"The recent coup soldiers' arrest of high-ranking officials from the ruling party may be in the hope of increasing their leverage and showing a stance of not surrendering immediately, as making immediate concessions means they will not reap any benefits from the coup." Zhu Ming explained, "But they are also aware that provoking neighboring countries and the Western Community will be unprofitable. Therefore, the cards in the hands of coup soldiers are limited."

Strive for transition

How will the situation develop next?

Zhu Ming believes that currently, the most likely outcome is to quell the incident through negotiations, for two reasons.

Firstly, the Western Community has a tradition and successful precedents of implementing diplomatic intervention. For example, former Nigerian President Obasanjo has mediated civil wars in countries such as Liberia and Ethiopia. Therefore, if the Western Community unites and puts pressure on Nepal around political, economic and other fields, there is still hope for resolving differences through peaceful dialogue. By contrast, military intervention can be seen as a last resort on the table.

Secondly, the Nepalese coup military is unable to match the military strength of the Western Community and is unwilling for the situation to escalate to an uncontrollable level, so there is also a need for negotiations. However, demanding that the coup soldiers immediately return power to Bazum may not be as smooth. It is more likely to establish a transitional period that ensures the dignity of the coup soldiers while giving them room for negotiation.

He Wenping also believes that compared to the possibility of military intervention, she is more optimistic about the role of diplomatic mediation.

"Based on past experience, envoys sent by African organizations not only seek solutions for countries experiencing coups, but also extensively meet with relevant personnel to examine the situation in the country." He Wenping said, "The first step will ensure the personal safety of detained individuals, and the second step will discuss political transition and try to bring the coups back to a democratically elected government."

He Wenping also believes that although the outside world is concerned about the possibility of "external military intervention," Niger will not slide into the vortex of military conflict. Because in the Sahel region, Mali is also an important anti-terrorism partner of the West, with a larger economic size than Niger. But the coup in Mali has not yet triggered external military intervention and conflict, and Niger should be more likely to be spared.

He Wenping added that although Western countries such as France and the United States have troops stationed in Niger, the possibility of military intervention is extremely low. Especially French President Macron has announced his intention to withdraw troops from West Africa, as the 10 year long anti-terrorism operation has been more than enough to make ends meet and the gains outweigh the losses.

Zhu Ming also believes that the possibility of regional conflicts is not high. Burkina Faso and Mali's statements regarding military intervention are more driven by self-protection, hoping that if the Western Community uses force against Nepal, they will not engage in joint liquidation with their interim government. They do not really want to be involved in military intervention.

Deep dilemma

Analysis suggests that this coup has made it difficult for Western countries to remain calm. Because if the Bazum government is ultimately overthrown, the new regime may reduce its dependence on France and create opportunities for Russia and other countries to expand their influence in Niger. This coup may further complicate the security situation in the Sahel region and affect efforts to combat terrorism.

He Wenping pointed out that there is indeed a concern in the West about "losing allies". Especially at a time when the Nepal coup coincides with the convening of the Russia Africa Summit and the Russian mercenary group Wagner will continue to carry out activities in Africa. Meeting the needs of African countries in the field of security is precisely the direction that Russia excels in.

As for the impact of the turbulent situation in Nepal on regional counter-terrorism, it is also a real existence. He Wenping pointed out that the Sahel region has become the center of global terrorism activities, and the severity of the counter-terrorism situation is greater than that of the Middle East region. Part of the reason is related to the downfall of the Gaddafi government in Libya, which led to a large influx of small arms, mercenaries, and armed groups into the Sahel region. Subsequently, forces such as Al Qaeda took advantage of the situation and entered.

"The rampant 'three forces', together with the long-term poverty and backwardness of the Sahel region, and the impact of the COVID-19 in recent years... This is the deep reason for the frequent regional coups." He Wenping said that at present, the deterioration of the security situation may bring new challenges to regional peace and development.

Further analysis suggests that the political turmoil in Niger has fallen into cyclical fluctuations, which will have a negative demonstration effect on other countries in the region. How to fundamentally solve the deep-seated difficulties behind the coup and drive regional peace and development towards a virtuous cycle may be a more important issue.