The Yangtze River Delta has begun to "compete for population", and "compete for talent" is not yet limited enough | Jiangsu | Population
Recently, according to a notice soliciting opinions on the website of the Jiangsu Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Jiangsu will completely lift the policy of household registration restrictions throughout the province, and implement a household registration system based on the place of habitual residence to ensure that the standards for rural migrant workers from other regions and local areas to settle in cities are unified.
Not long ago, Zhejiang successively issued two documents. Except for the urban area of Hangzhou, Zhejiang will completely abolish the policy of household registration restrictions; Hangzhou urban area will lift restrictions on household registration quotas, streamline points programs, and promote mutual recognition of social security and years of residence within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.
From a national perspective, the comprehensive relaxation of household registration conditions this time does not make Jiangsu and Zhejiang a pioneer. Since 2020, Shandong, Henan, Gansu and other regions have proposed to fully relax the conditions for household registration. As of now, at least 18 provinces in China have relaxed the conditions for household registration. Several provincial capital cities such as Shijiazhuang, Kunming, Nanchang, Fuzhou, Jinan, and Zhengzhou have also announced "zero threshold" household registration.
Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as major manufacturing provinces, used to have the highest number of migrant populations in the country. The future population competition is related to the development of regional economy and the improvement of urban agglomeration level.
However, several experts who have long been concerned about the population issue in the Yangtze River Delta interviewed by the reporter have a relatively consistent view: after the lifting of household registration restrictions, it is unlikely that there will be a "wave of urban migration", and there may not be a large number of migrant workers choosing to settle down.
Who will settle down?
At present, most major cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang implement a point based household registration policy. According to different educational backgrounds, ages, years of residence, and social security years, certain points are assigned. Once the points meet the requirements, the household registration can be processed, and the number of people who can register through points each year is limited. In recent years, the educational threshold has gradually been broken in the household registration policy. Last year, Zhejiang province fully lifted restrictions on the registration of graduates with associate degrees or above. In May of this year, graduates with associate degrees from ordinary universities under the age of 35 who have already established employment units in the urban area of Hangzhou can apply for registration in the city. The requirements for points are also decreasing. Suzhou has updated the standard for household registration with points this year, with a minimum score of 400 points, setting a record low. However, the minimum score in 2018 was 795 points, which is now almost halved.
This indicates that even if the conditions for household registration are not fully relaxed, it is becoming increasingly easy to settle in major cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. So there is a viewpoint that the main beneficiaries of the new policies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are those who have lived there for many years and do not have an advantage in education.
However, this idea may be overturned by the actual situation. Wang Ping, an associate professor of Anhui Migrant Workers Research Center and Fuyang Normal University, has long been concerned about the mobility of migrant workers. She interviewed a group of migrant workers from Anhui who worked in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The survey found that few are willing to move their registered residence out of their hometown. "For the choice of settlement, the most important factors are not the registered residence system, but the income level and economic conditions." Wang Ping said, "If you settle down, you may have to move the whole family to the city, which requires larger housing and higher living costs."
In addition, migrant workers have emotional attachment to their hometown. "Some interviewees are concerned that if they move out of their household registration, they will no longer be recognized as villagers. Older migrant workers, after turning 60, are more willing to return to their hometowns for retirement. The village has its own social network and emotional belonging," said Wang Ping. From the perspective of economic benefits, with the continuous promotion of rural revitalization, rural infrastructure is becoming more and more perfect, and the assets of "one acre and three shares of land" in our hometown are also valued. Some rural collective economies have developed prosperously and can still receive dividends by the end of the year.
Previously, many migrant workers chose to settle in cities out of consideration for enjoying urban public services. In recent years, the measures related to the equalization of urban and rural public services have also been constantly promoted. The practice of linking public services with permanent residence rather than registered residence has become increasingly mature, and the public service resources previously tied to household registration have gradually been untied. "After the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the new rural cooperative medical system in Anhui can also be used in hospitals in cities in Zhejiang. By swiping one's own medical insurance card, remote settlement can be achieved." Wang Ping gave an example to reporters, "The education of children of migrant workers is more closely related to housing. If there are spare degrees, they can generally rent a house and enroll in school."
After decades of development of China's registered residence system, the status of social management and identity symbol has been gradually weakened. Even Zhang Chunlong, director of the Social Policy Institute of the Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, believes that "registered residence in some places is no longer of great significance, and the full liberalization of settlement is a timely adjustment to meet the needs of social development."
Who do you want to keep?
"The essence of point based household registration is to screen the population and prefer to choose talents," said Zhang Chunlong. "The policy of fully relaxing household registration restrictions has been introduced, indicating that the population wants to stay."
In early August, the Hangzhou Municipal Health Commission issued the "Implementation Measures for Parenting Subsidies in Hangzhou". It stipulates that from January 1, 2023, the same couple will be given a one-time subsidy of 2000 yuan for the second child of pregnant women with registered residence in Hangzhou, and 5000 yuan for the third child of pregnant women; A one-time subsidy of 5000 yuan will be given for giving birth to a second child, and a one-time subsidy of 20000 yuan will be given for giving birth to a third child.
Relaxing household registration restrictions and providing childcare subsidies have different methods but similar purposes - to achieve population growth and enhance urban vitality.
Mi Hong, Director of the Population Big Data and Policy Simulation Research Base at the School of Public Administration of Zhejiang University and Dean of the "One Old and One Small" Development Research Institute at Ningbo University of Engineering, said that since 2010, especially in the past three years, the net inflow of population in Zhejiang has decreased. With the transfer of industries to the central and western regions, there has been a wave of migrant workers returning. However, the fertility desire of the local population in Zhejiang is not very strong, and the birth rate of registered residence population in Zhejiang is low, even negative growth.
The situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is similar. On March 3, the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development of Jiangsu Province in 2022. At the end of 2022, the province's permanent resident population was 85.15 million, an increase of 100000 compared to the end of the previous year. Although the total population of Jiangsu achieved positive growth, the growth rate was only 1 ‰. In addition, the natural population growth rate in Jiangsu in 2021 was -1.1 ‰, which is the first time since the establishment of the People's Republic of China that the annual natural population growth rate in Jiangsu has been negative.
The high-quality development of the economy is closely related to the size of the population. "'No work, no wealth 'has been the basic logic of development for many years." Zeng Gang, Dean of the Urban Development Research Institute of East China Normal University, believes that' on the one hand, population growth is conducive to alleviating the shortage of labor force; on the other hand, more population urbanization will drive consumption and stimulate domestic demand. '"
The permanent population of over ten million has always been one of the key indicators for measuring the level of urban development in China. At present, there are 17 cities with a population of millions in China, and the Yangtze River Delta region is the most economically active. However, only Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou meet this standard. Against the backdrop of negative population growth across the country, the importance placed on population in various regions is constantly increasing, and competition will become increasingly fierce. And the Yangtze River Delta naturally cannot fall behind.
However, the driving effect of any policy on population growth cannot be guaranteed. As analyzed earlier, the comprehensive lifting of household registration restrictions is expected to attract a limited number of residents. What hinders population retention is often economic factors. The attractiveness of a city still depends on various hardware and software improvements such as industrial development, infrastructure improvement, and business environment improvement.
The actual follow-up effects of the policy still need to be observed, but the direction, trend, and guiding ideology have been clearly defined. Most cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have opened their arms and welcome visitors from all parties.
