Will the relationship between the United States and Iran ease?, Depth | Changing Prisoners with One Hand, Sanctioning Politics with One Hand | Iran | United States

Release time:Apr 16, 2024 21:49 PM

On the 18th local time, a plane carrying released American citizens left the Iranian capital Tehran, marking a rare highlight in US Iran relations.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Global Times, and Reference News, just before the exchange of detainees between the United States and Iran at Qatar International Airport on the 18th, a total of approximately $6 billion in Iranian funds had also been transferred to Iranian accounts in banks within Qatar after being unfrozen. However, just as the US and Iran were implementing the prisoner swap and asset unfreezing agreement, the US once again waved its sanctions baton and announced the latest sanctions against Iran's intelligence department and former President Ahmadinejad.

Analysts believe that changing prisoners and imposing sanctions on the United States reflects the contradiction of US policy - both the desire to score points in domestic politics through prisoner exchanges and the unwillingness to substantially change relations with Iran.

Mei Yi completed the prisoner exchange

Since the agreement on prisoner exchange and asset unfreezing was reached in August, the US and Iran finally took a crucial step on the 18th.

Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Kanani stated at a press conference that five Iranian citizens detained in US prisons would be released. Five American prisoners detained in Iran will also be released. Subsequently, according to Iranian sources, the prisoner exchange operation between the two countries took place at the international airport in Doha, the capital of Qatar.

Before both sides exchanged prisoners, what attracted more attention from the outside world was that a $6 billion Iranian fund had quietly arrived on the same day.

Iranian Central Bank President Reza Farzin confirmed on the 18th that approximately $6 billion in Iranian funds have been transferred to Iranian accounts in banks within Qatar after being unfrozen.

Although some in the United States see this as a "victory" for Iran, in fact, this funding already belongs to Iran.

It is reported that the frozen funds are due from South Korea to purchase Iranian oil, but after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018 and imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Iran, South Korea froze the funds in 2019.

The central bank of Iran originally had approximately $7 billion in funds in its South Korean account, but due to exchange rate fluctuations and lack of interest calculation, this amount has shrunk to $6 billion in the past few years.

For this urgent funding, the United States stated that even if Iranian funds are transferred, they will only be limited to purchasing humanitarian supplies. However, Iran said that it is up to the final say to decide where Iran's money is spent.

Iranian President Lehi recently emphasized that Iran has full authority to manage recently unfrozen funds, and it is Iran's responsibility to decide how to use these funds. This money will be used "wherever we need it.".

In history, the United States and Iran have exchanged prisoners multiple times. The last large-scale prisoner exchange was in 2016, after the Iran nuclear agreement was reached. Iran released four previously detained Americans at the time, and it is reported that the Obama administration transported $400 million in cash to Iran on the same day.

Why was the agreement facilitated?

In 2016, the background of the US Iran prisoner swap was Iran agreeing to restrict its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions. What are the facilitating factors behind the smooth progress of the agreement this time?

Sun Degang, Director and Researcher of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, believes that the recent agreement between the United States and Iran to exchange prisoners and unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds reflects the cooperation and compromise between the two sides in the humanitarian field, but the fundamental reason is still due to domestic political and economic needs.

Sun Degang analyzed that Iran urgently needs to obtain the deserved $6 billion in unfrozen funds to improve the domestic economy. The United States will welcome an election next year, and current President Biden needs to receive humanitarian bonuses before the election.

In addition, with the improvement of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, the attempt of the United States to unite allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia to form an "anti Iran front" has collapsed, so it has had to make some compromises on the issue of prisoner exchange.

Li Weijian, a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Policy at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that behind the US Iran prisoner exchange agreement, regional adjustments and changes in US policy towards the Middle East are two key factors.

Li Weijian stated that in the past, the United States' Middle East policy focused on Iran, shaping it as a regional threat to woo Arab countries and promote diplomatic relations with Israel, which reached its peak during the era of former President Trump. At the beginning of Biden's inauguration, he explicitly proposed to return to the Iran nuclear agreement, but in consideration of domestic politics, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other factors, relevant issues were shelved.

However, in recent years, the situation has been changing. Under the mediation of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed diplomatic relations in April this year, further driving the Middle East's "peace and reconciliation wave".

"Saudi Arabia and Iran shook hands and made peace, completely disrupting the United States' plans and prompting the United States to make changes." Li Weijian said that regional countries are no longer willing to maintain confrontation with Iran, but hope to ease the regional situation and shift the focus to domestic development and regional cooperation. This also makes the past practices of provoking geopolitical games and creating security troubles in the United States no longer popular.

Recently, the Biden administration has also been adjusting its Middle East policy in response to changes in the situation, attempting to woo regional allies through international cooperation plans. "In this context, the Iran issue has become an unavoidable hurdle." Li Weijian pointed out that with the upcoming US elections, the Biden administration, eager for progress, also had to make a slight gesture to ease relations with Iran.

For Iran, Li Weijian stated that the "key" to sanctions lies in the hands of the United States. If the United States is willing to lift some of the sanctions, Iran would naturally enjoy it. However, this only involves practical interests and does not mean a significant improvement in the relationship between the two sides.

Change prisoners with one hand, sanction with the other hand

After the successful implementation of the prisoner exchange agreement between the United States and Iran, some voices believe that the United States is "compromising" with Iran. But then, the US once again released complex signals.

At the moment when the US and Iran were implementing the prisoner swap and asset unfreezing agreement, Biden issued a statement on the 18th confirming the release of US citizens and once again announced the imposition of sanctions on Iran.

Biden said that the United States will impose sanctions on former Iranian President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian intelligence agency, citing individuals and institutions involved in "wrongful detention" of US citizens. He also said, "We will continue to make Iran pay the price for its provocative actions in the region."

According to Iranian news on the 15th, the US Treasury Department also announced the addition of Iran's Fars News Agency, Iran's Tasnim News Agency, and Iran's PressTV to the sanctions list.

For the United States, which is changing prisoners and imposing sanctions, the Iraqi side claims that the US government has become addicted to sanctions.

On the 18th, Kanani condemned the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, stating that the United States has committed countless crimes against the Iranian country and people, but has disregarded human rights and become addicted to sanctions, reflecting the hypocrisy and double standards of the US government.

Sun Degang believes that the operation of changing prisoners and imposing sanctions on the United States reflects the contradictory nature of the Biden administration's policies. The US hopes to score points in domestic politics by exchanging prisoners, but is unwilling to substantially change its relationship with Iran and reduce its suppression and sanctions.

Similarly, Iran has not abandoned its established policies in defending nuclear issues and strategic autonomy, safeguarding national sovereignty and security. "From this perspective, there are still significant limitations to improving the relationship between the United States and Iran, and this prisoner exchange is only a technical concession," said Sun Degang.

Li Weijian believes that the Biden administration's "taking one step back two steps" reflects concerns about domestic sentiment in the United States, fearing that taking too fast a step could trigger a backlash from anti Iranian forces in the country and even lose the votes of American Jews in the election. However, Li Weijian also pointed out that although the US intends to appease the domestic situation, the unfreezing of $6 billion in funds from Iran is substantial, while the sanctions against Ahmadinejad and the Iranian intelligence department are symbolic.

Limited space for reconciliation

In recent years, the US Iran relationship has remained tense, but after both sides successfully completed the prisoner swap, the outside world has speculated that the Iran nuclear talks may be reinvigorated? Will there be a turning point in the relationship between the US and Iran, their arch enemies?

In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and subsequently restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran. Starting from April 2021, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna to discuss the resumption of US Iran compliance. However, due to significant differences, the negotiations did not make significant progress.

In response to the latest progress on the Iran nuclear issue, Iran has repeatedly stated that it will adhere to the path of diplomacy and negotiation, continue to consult with relevant parties, and achieve the revitalization of the Iran nuclear agreement.

The US side remains noncommittal. When attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the release of prisoners "does not mean that there are any other arrangements in the relationship between the two countries", and the nuclear issue "is on a different track".

"On the Iran nuclear issue, there is no possibility of reconciliation between the United States and Iran in the short term." Sun Degang believes that the United States is unwilling to return to the Iran nuclear agreement due to domestic political considerations. Within Iran, conservative forces have the upper hand, with a strong ability and will to defend national sovereignty and security. The Iranian government is not expected to make concessions on the nuclear issue without the lifting of sanctions by the United States.

Regarding whether the tense relationship between the United States and Iran will improve, analysts also believe that the structural contradictions between the two sides remain unresolved, and there are still many constraints on the future of the US Iran relationship.

Li Weijian stated that due to the needs of both the United States and Iran, the relationship between the two sides is developing towards easing. It is not ruled out that the Biden administration may cooperate with the pace of domestic elections and make some "big moves" at critical junctures. Iran is pleased to see the United States release a signal of easing tensions and continue to strive for the lifting of sanctions imposed by the United States.

However, there are still many obstacles in the future US Iran relations. In addition to domestic factors, Israel is also a major obstacle to improving US Iran relations. With the improvement of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the United States may find it difficult to do Israel's work by wooing Saudi Arabia.

"In the future, the US Iran relationship may take small exploratory steps forward, and based on political reactions from both the outside world and China, we may 'walk and see' or even 'see before we leave'," said Li Weijian.

Sun Degang believes that from the current perspective, the structural contradictions between the United States and Iran have not changed, and there is very little room and room for improvement in the bilateral relationship. With Iran officially becoming a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and improving its relations with neighboring countries, there is greater room for Iran's diplomacy to maneuver and there is no motivation to actively improve its relations with the United States.

Sun Degang stated that the overall principle of US Iran relations is "to fight but not to break", and one of the more tacit understandings between the two sides is that they do not want to see military conflicts. But the confrontational relationship between the two sides is expected to continue, and it is unlikely to see any signs of improvement in the relationship at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly, where both US and Iranian leaders will attend.

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