Why did a plane crash occur? What is Wagner's fate?, Russian Aviation Administration claims that Prigorn died in Wagner | plane crash | Prigorn
On the evening of the 23rd, the Federal Air Transport Agency of the Russian Federation announced that the founder of the Wagner organization, Prigoren, was killed in a plane crash that occurred on the same day. Russian media reported that Prigoren's body has been preliminarily confirmed, but DNA analysis is still ongoing. The new event is like a "shock bomb", instantly igniting the global public opinion field.
Widely concerned by the outside world: Has Prigoren, who has repeatedly performed the "golden cicada shedding its shell," really died? Why did the plane crash occur? Where is Wagner's fate heading?
No one survived
According to Russian media, at 6:19 pm local time on August 23rd in Moscow, an emergency situation occurred on a Legacy 600 aircraft manufactured by Embraer en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg, and it crashed in the Tver Oblast in western Russia.
There are a total of 10 people on board, including 3 crew members. Preliminary information shows that all personnel on board have died. The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency reported that the passenger list of the crashed plane includes Wagner founder Prigoren and several senior Wagner personnel.
Russian television station Tsargrad stated that the list also includes two deputies from Prigoren, one of whom is Utkin. He was originally the commander of the 700th Independent Task Force of the 2nd Independent Brigade of the Russian General Intelligence Agency, and also one of the founders of Wagner. The other one is Valery Chekalov. He used to be a businessman and was associated with Prigoren's business model. Currently, he is responsible for security services.
At present, it is unclear why these safety conscious "brain leaders" do not take flights in batches to reduce risks, but instead "squeeze into one plane".
Wagner did not provide a response to this issue, only stating that two planes were deployed in front and one behind. According to the data from the website "24-hour flight radar", which provides real-time flight conditions, after the previous plane crashed, another plane associated with Prigoren turned around and landed at other Russian airports after taking off in Moscow.
According to flight data, there were sudden landings, climbs, and re landings before the plane crashed. This may indicate that the pilot is making every effort to control the aircraft, but has not been successful.
Although the Russian space agency announced the death of Prigoren, many people still expressed doubts about it. Previously, there were multiple reports of Prigoren's death from the outside world, but it later proved to be either false or a case of a "golden cicada shedding its shell".
Sergei Prostakov, a Russian military expert and political analyst, believes that for this case, "fake death" is considered unlikely to cover people's ears. Because the safety level of this type of flight is highly concerned.
At present, due to the bodies of the victims being burned to the point where they cannot be identified, DNA comparison is required to confirm their identity. Sources have told Tsargrad TV that Prigoren's body has been preliminarily confirmed, but DNA analysis is still ongoing. Al Jazeera reported that Prigoren's mobile phone was found at the scene of the accident.
On the day of the plane crash, Russian President Putin participated in an event in Kursk Oblast, Russia. He has now returned to Moscow.
"Make enemies on both sides"
There are various speculations from the outside about the cause of the plane crash.
Russian political scholar Sergei Markov believes that although factors such as weather, technical malfunctions, and improper operations cannot be ruled out, this incident does not seem like an accident. It should be someone who planned an action against the high-level officials of Prigoren and Wagner. Sergei Prostakov also did not believe that the event was an accident, with a probability of only 10%.
According to the German "Euronews" website, Prigo is known for his "two faced enemies" and has many enemies both domestically and internationally in Russia.
From a domestic perspective, Sergei Prostakov said that in recent years, the contradictions among the Russian elite have become increasingly apparent, with different views on special military operations. It is not surprising that there is some kind of intentional power in powerful departments or the business world to eliminate Prigoren.
Prostakov believed that if someone wanted to "liquidate" Prigoren, they might order the opening of the air defense system. "If you hear two loud noises in the video, it could be two missiles. But I'm not sure because I saw that the bullet marks on the video are not obvious." The analyst added that the "armor" system may have been used because the "beech" would have blown the plane into pieces instead of falling intact.
Russian political scholar Fedor Kalashnikov believes that after the Wagner incident, Prigoren was no longer a "figure" and his fate may have been predetermined, but "delayed retaliation". The simpler way is to detonate the bomb on the plane.
On the social media platform Telegram, an account associated with the Wagner organization, "Grey Zone," claimed that Prigoren was killed by "Russian traitors.".
From a foreign perspective, Ukraine and Western intelligence agencies also see Wagner as a thorn in their side. The Ukrainian spokesperson has repeatedly warned that they are preparing a surprise for the celebration of Independence Day on August 24th. Although "surprise" can be understood as using drones to attack Russian civilian infrastructure, the death of Wagner's leadership also conforms to this logic.
Russian political analyst Abbas Galyamov stated that it is no longer a secret for Ukrainian intelligence agencies to carry out assassination missions within Russian territory, but there have been no previous cases targeting aircraft. The Ukrainian side obtained a large amount of intelligence from the Central Intelligence Agency and the Pentagon of the United States.
The Kremlin has not yet commented on this incident. Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak posted on social media that he signed the death penalty for himself from the moment when Prygo believed in the guarantees of President Russia and Belarus. US President Biden said he was "not surprised". The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has noted the relevant reports.
Where to go and where to follow
If Prigoren is ultimately proven dead, what will Wagner's fate be?
Sergei Markov believes that even if Prigorn dies, some of Wagner's projects that can bring benefits to the country will still operate, including operations in Africa and military training programs in Belarus. And a portion of Wagner's forces have already established relationships with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Kimberly Martin, a political science professor at Barnard College, believes that at a medium to low level, Wagner can continue to be used by Moscow for actions in other countries, especially in Africa. "In every country, Wagner has his own commander. Therefore, the death of Prigoren or Utkin would not affect their activities. But the question is whether these commanders can be persuaded to work for other leaders."
There are also reports that after the plane crash, the Russian military has sent planes to Belarus to withdraw Wagner soldiers. Analysts believe that Russia may push for the selection and support of more controllable Wagner leaders, diverting Wagner forces from overseas and stationed in Belarus to the African region.
Previously, Russian media reported that Prigo's successor may include a commander codenamed "White Hair", and foreign media speculated that "White Hair" is one of Wagner's most senior commanders - Andrei Trochev.
Analysts believe that the impact of the incident on the situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield is limited.
Although Wagner performed outstandingly in the Battle of Bachmut, the Russian army is now adopting a triple defense system of attrition warfare, and Wagner's role is no longer as obvious. Moreover, since the Wagner incident, the group has no longer directly intervened in European affairs and has not acted as the main force of Russia's military, so it will not have a significant impact on the situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield.
