Is the United States once again "half hearted"?, The Chinese side expresses its expectation that the East Asian "Diplomatic Carnival" will soon begin, and a series of meetings on ASEAN, the United States, China, and East Asian cooperation will be held

The ASEAN Summit and a series of East Asian Cooperation Leaders' Meetings will be held in Jakarta, Indonesia from September 4th to 7th. Leaders and representatives from over 20 countries and some international organizations, including China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Russia, and India, will be invited to attend.

The host Indonesia stated that this is the largest summit in the history of ASEAN and its partners. What are the key points and highlights of this East Asian "diplomatic carnival"? Is the United States, a major foreign power, once again mired in "double mindedness"?

"The focus is on the economy"

According to convention, ASEAN holds two summits each year, scheduled for the first and second half of the year. During the summit in the second half of the year, bilateral and multilateral meetings between ASEAN and its dialogue partners, including the "10+1", "10+3" and the East Asia Summit, will also be held simultaneously, known as the East Asia Cooperation Leaders' Series Meetings.

This year, leaders and representatives of ASEAN member countries, dialogue partners, Bangladesh, and the Cook Islands will attend the meeting.

As in previous years, before the diplomatic feast, ASEAN's "dining table" was already covered with numerous issues.

According to the Indonesian side, the theme of this year's ASEAN summit is "ASEAN plays a crucial role: building an economic growth center". The topics of the series of meetings will include developing ASEAN's long-term vision, advancing negotiations on the "South China Sea Code of Conduct", ensuring a nuclear free state in the region, and promoting regional peace and prosperity. Attendees will seek to reach dozens of outcome documents.

"There are many agendas for this conference, but the focus is on the economy." Liu Qing, Vice President of the China Academy of International Studies, pointed out that the conference will focus on economic cooperation and strive to build an inclusive and cooperative economic growth center.

This agenda arrangement is a response to the current international situation and a reflection of the common aspirations of regional countries.

"The world economy and East Asian economy face many uncertain factors, and how to increase momentum for regional economy has become a focus of attention for countries in the region." Liu Qing said that although some countries may use this platform to increase their chips in bilateral relations due to geopolitical and other factors, the main tone of promoting economic cooperation among regional countries has not been affected, and the desire for peaceful development is still strong.

Focusing on the theme of economic growth in this series of meetings, Liu Qing proposed several observation points: in which new directions will ASEAN and its partners strengthen cooperation? As the main channel for ASEAN regional cooperation, what new measures will the "10+3" initiative take to promote open regional economy and connect industrial cooperation? How will countries further leverage the economic energy of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement?

Promising achievements in cooperation with China

At the invitation of Indonesian President Joko, the rotating chairman of ASEAN, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the China ASEAN Leaders Meeting, ASEAN China Japan South Korea Leaders Meeting, and East Asia Summit held in Jakarta from September 5th to 8th, and make an official visit to Indonesia.

This is Premier Li Qiang's first visit to an Asian country since taking office, and also the Chinese Premier's second visit to Indonesia in five years, coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. This visit is of great significance for the overall cooperation between China and ASEAN, as well as the development of China Indonesia relations.

Looking at the multilateral level first, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed China's four expectations around this meeting, which can be distilled into four key words: promoting common development, consolidating the foundation of public opinion, promoting regional economic integration, and adhering to true multilateralism.

"Different frameworks of ASEAN may sign different cooperation agreements. Among them, China's participation in the 10+1 and 10+3 frameworks may produce more results." Liu Qing pointed out that this year is the year when China ASEAN relations have made another leap forward, not only the second year when the two sides have built a comprehensive strategic partnership, but also the 10th anniversary of the Chinese leaders' proposal of the "the Belt and Road" initiative and the diplomatic concept of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness. The two sides may achieve some new cooperation results, including the alignment of China's "Global Development Initiative" priority projects with ASEAN's long-term vision, which may involve areas such as green economy, technological innovation, e-commerce, and digital economy.

Looking at the bilateral level, China and Indonesia face each other across the sea and have a long-standing friendly relationship. Despite the constantly changing regional situation, the largest economy in Southeast Asia has always maintained close relations with China. Recently, there has been close high-level exchanges between the two countries. Last July, Indonesian President Joko was invited to visit China, becoming the first foreign head of state to be received by China after the Beijing Winter Olympics. In July this year, Zoko also went to Chengdu to attend the opening ceremony of the World University Games. During this visit, Li Qiang will hold talks with Zoko to exchange views on China Indonesia relations and international and regional issues of common concern. He will also attend supporting events such as the business dinner.

The public opinion of both countries believes that the visit of the Chinese Premier will be a new opportunity for the two countries to accelerate the construction of a community with a shared future, deepen the docking of development strategies, expand cooperation in various fields, and jointly promote regional development and prosperity.

"China and Indonesia are both populous countries, and the two markets are complementary." Liu Qing said that at present, the trial operation of the landmark project Yawan High Speed Railway under the framework of the "the Belt and Road" has been completed, which will bring tangible benefits to the local people. In addition, the cooperation between the two sides in areas such as clean energy, fisheries, port economy, and industrial park construction will provide assistance for their respective modernization. During Li Qiang's visit, there may be some new cooperation achievements presented in the form of joint documents between the two sides.

Why is the United States sometimes hot and cold

In addition to the ASEAN Summit and interactions with Chinese leaders, the annual leaders' meetings between ASEAN and other partner countries are also eye-catching. Indian Prime Minister Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol and other leaders from multiple countries will be invited to attend.

However, the White House has already announced that US President Biden will not attend this series of East Asian Cooperation Leaders' Meetings, but will be represented by Vice President Harris.

Indonesian sources say that despite Indonesia's efforts to coordinate Biden's attendance and even reschedule a series of meetings from November to September, Biden ultimately chose to be absent.

In contrast, Biden will attend the G20 summit in India on September 9th and will then visit Vietnam.

The outside world is puzzled as to why Biden gave up the nearby Indonesia stop and missed the opportunity to gather with ASEAN leaders on the eve of his trip to India and Vietnam? People doubt whether Biden is once again "half hearted" towards Southeast Asian countries?

There are criticisms in the United States regarding this, believing that it is a neglect of the host country Indonesia by the United States, which may lead to a trade-off in the influence of the United States and China in Southeast Asia.

Biden's aides argue that the president has an "unparalleled record" in engaging with the region: attending the 2021 online East Asia Summit, hosting the US ASEAN Special Summit in Washington D.C. in May last year, attending the US ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh in November last year, and elevating bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

For a long time, the United States has had fluctuating attention to Southeast Asia and the Asia Pacific region. In the early stages of the end of the Cold War, it reduced financial aid to the Asia Pacific region, withdrew US troops, and closed US military bases, gradually reducing its focus on the Asia Pacific region. Since the financial crisis swept across Asia in 1997, the economic influence of the United States in the region has gradually declined.

But during the Obama era, Washington had a great potential to make a comeback. Former President Obama signed the Southeast Asian Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 2009 and hosted the US ASEAN Leaders Summit in California in 2016. He also visited the region at least 9 times during his tenure. However, during the Trump era, despite the United States advocating for the Indo Pacific strategy, Trump himself missed the US ASEAN summit for three consecutive times.

Yuan Zheng, Deputy Director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that he has noticed the White House's arrangement that Biden will not attend the East Asian series of conferences, and is somewhat puzzled about this.

"Compared to the Trump era, the Biden administration does indeed attach much more importance to Southeast Asia, especially at the diplomatic level, attempting to win over Southeast Asian countries. However, for this series of East Asian meetings, the US has not provided any information about Biden's important conflicts or absences. He plans to visit India and Vietnam, but does not visit Indonesia, which may reflect some of the focus of US diplomacy," Yuan Zheng said.

Firstly, compared to multilateral diplomacy, the United States places greater emphasis on bilateral relations. Since taking office, the Biden administration has strengthened its relationship with allies and formed cliques, which shows that it has shown more confidence and advantages in bilateral exchanges.

Secondly, the United States' diplomacy towards Southeast Asia is hierarchical and focused. The countries with closer cooperation with the United States may be at the first level, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, which are precisely vigilant towards China on issues such as the South China Sea; Countries with a stronger tendency towards independence in diplomacy may be at the second level. Overall, Southeast Asian countries are becoming increasingly unwilling to take sides between China and the United States. The US's recent efforts to woo have not had significant results. Therefore, it simply values key countries.

However, "Biden's absence does not mean that the United States has ignored Indonesia." Yuan Zheng said that Indonesia is a major country in Southeast Asia in terms of population and influence. More precisely, the two sides have just had contact recently. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo was recently invited to visit the United States. But he also emphasized that Indonesia's position is to "maintain friendship with all countries".

Liu Qing also believes that the cooperation between the United States and Southeast Asian countries has never been a holistic cooperation, but rather a differentiated cooperation. It is prioritized based on its own strategic interests and needs, with a focus on connecting with individual countries. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has put in considerable effort towards its ally, the Philippines. Next, the United States will increase diplomatic efforts with its regional partner Vietnam.

Ultimately, the two analysts point out that although the United States also claims to respect the core position of ASEAN in regional affairs, in reality, all actions of the United States are prioritized in safeguarding US interests, attempting to play its leading role and leadership position. Because once the role of ASEAN becomes too significant, the dominance of the United States in this region will decrease, and some goals will not be achieved. As a result, the United States actively promotes the Okus alliance between the United States, Britain, and Australia, as well as the dialogue mechanism between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia in the Asia Pacific region. By emphasizing some bilateral relations, the United States restrains and weakens the central role of ASEAN.

Looking back from the present to the past, East Asian countries, adhering to the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, share weal and woe and help each other, have demonstrated the oriental wisdom of seeking common ground while reserving differences to the world, whether during the construction of the Free Trade Area or at the critical moment of the Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 epidemic. At present, as some Western countries engage in "small circles" and hedge against regional integration cooperation, I believe that the vast East Asian countries, including ASEAN, can recognize the overall situation, adhere to the concept of multilateralism in regional cooperation, and make choices for the future of Asia.