Today's data selection: Global warming leading to increased airplane turbulence; The mortgage interest rate is about to decrease. Sales | Pickups | Global

China's social financing increment in May reached 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than last month

According to preliminary statistics released by the People's Bank of China on the 13th, the increase in social financing scale in May 2023 was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month and 1.31 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 617.3 billion yuan. In addition, as of the end of May 2023, the stock of social financing scale was 36.1.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 225.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that under the high base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing scale in May has declined. Structurally, RMB loans on the balance sheet increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, and net financing from government bonds increased by 557.1 billion yuan, accounting for 62.4% and 17.4% of social financing, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1 and 0.4 percentage points, still serving as the main support for new social financing. Entrusted, trust loans, and stock financing achieved a year-on-year increase.

Liang Si, a researcher at Bank of China Research Institute, also pointed out that from off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans increased by 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of 16.7 billion yuan year-on-year, and trust loans increased by 92.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The supporting role of entrusted loans and trust loans in the real economy is further evident. Wen Bin stated that recent data releases have shown that insufficient total demand remains a prominent contradiction in the current economic operation. With the unstable recovery of domestic demand and the increasing pressure of external demand decline, the demand for physical financing continues to be disturbed, and various macro policies still need to be protected.

In May, China's pickup truck sales reached a high level in the past five years, and exports continued to grow

The latest statistical data released by the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference on the 13th shows that in May 2023, the sales of pickup trucks in China reached 46000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% and a month on month increase of 7.2%, reaching a high level in nearly five years. From January to May, China's pickup truck exports continued to grow.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers stated that due to the impact of the epidemic last year, the production of pickup trucks in China was hindered, and this year, the overall demand situation in the pickup truck market has improved under the promotion of consumption policies. Overall pickup truck sales from January to May were 209000 units; During the same period, exports of 11500 vehicles increased by 74% year-on-year. The surge in overseas market demand has driven the sustained growth of China's pickup truck exports, which is also a characteristic of the comprehensive strength of China's automotive industry's export sales. It is reported that the sales of pickup trucks in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year in May this year, especially in the county and township markets where the proportion of pickup truck sales increased steadily year-on-year, effectively offsetting the contraction of pickup truck sales in big cities. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers believes that the sales growth of Chinese pickup truck manufacturers in May was jointly contributed by domestic and international market sales. Despite the relatively stable sales trend of pickup trucks in May, although the base is relatively high after June, it is expected that the overall Chinese pickup truck market will continue to strengthen in 2023.

Is the mortgage interest rate going to decrease? The central bank lowered interest rates for the first time this year

In the strong expectation of interest rate cuts in the market, the People's Bank of China's open market reverse repurchase operation bid interest rate has been lowered. On June 13th, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will carry out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan on the same day, with an interest rate of 1.90%, a 10 basis point decrease from the previous period. Recently, the six major banks have successively updated the listing interest rates for RMB deposits, and the interest rates for current and fixed deposits have been lowered. Subsequently, some joint-stock banks also announced a reduction in deposit interest rates. At that time, several market analysts had anticipated that interest rates might be lowered in the near future.

The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that the interest rate cut meets expectations. Currently, macroeconomic weakness, PMI, inflation and other data indicate insufficient effective demand, and monetary easing policies are needed to cooperate. In addition, market interest rates, including certificates of deposit and repurchase rates, have already been at a low level, and adjusting policy interest rates in line with the trend will help promote demand recovery.

Analyzing the reasons for the unexpected interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, believes that the central bank's reduction in reverse repo rates will lower the short-term funding cost for commercial banks to integrate into the central bank, which will help reduce the overall debt cost of banks and positively transmit the loan cost to the physical sector.

Global warming leads to increased airplane turbulence

A study in the UK shows that in recent decades, the probability of aircraft encountering clear sky turbulence during flight has been increasing, which is closely related to global warming under climate change. According to a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation on the 12th, researchers from the University of Reading in the UK have compiled data on the flight conditions of multiple routes from 1979 to 2020, and found that the frequency of severe clear air turbulence on a usually busy North Atlantic route has increased by 55% over these years, making it the most frequent among all routes in the statistics.

From a regional perspective, the number of clear sky turbulence increases the most on the routes over the United States and the North Atlantic. The turbulence on the routes to Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic has also significantly increased. Clear sky turbulence generally refers to turbulence that occurs at an altitude of over 6000 meters and is unrelated to strong convective activity. Its occurrence is not accompanied by obvious weather phenomena, and there is no clear boundary between the bumpy and non bumpy areas, making it difficult for pilots to detect. Researchers believe that the increase in clear sky turbulence is due to the warming of the air caused by carbon emissions, which in turn causes severe wind shear in high-altitude areas. The relevant research report is published in the monthly issue of Geophysical Communications in the United States.

US inflation cooling in May exceeds expectations! CPI increased by 4% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate in over two years

On Tuesday, June 13th, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI in May increased by 4% year-on-year, marking the 11th consecutive decline and the smallest year-on-year increase since April 2021, with an expected 4.1%, compared to the previous 4.9%; The CPI increased by 0.1% month on month, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.4%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by 5.3%, lower than the expected 5.2%, with a previous value of 5.5%, indicating that the year-on-year increase in core CPI has also slowed down.

The inflation rate has dropped by more than half from last year's peak, but is still much higher than the level that Federal Reserve officials hope to see at this week's meeting. Economists believe that core prices can better predict future inflation, but they are still at a high level, partly because the surge in rental housing prices earlier continues to be reflected in inflation data.