Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations soon?, Saudi Crown Prince claims to be gradually approaching normalization of relations with Israel | Saudi Arabia | Israel

According to Reuters reported by Reference News, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad said in an interview with US television on the 20th that Saudi Arabia is steadily advancing the normalization of relations with Israel and is "getting closer every day" to reach an agreement. However, he also emphasized that the Palestinian issue remains "very important" for Saudi Arabia.

Recently, the United States is increasing its mediation efforts in an attempt to expedite the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On the same day on the 20th, US President Biden also met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during the United Nations General Assembly to discuss related matters. However, analysis indicates that the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia still faces numerous obstacles, and the possibility of achieving this in the short term is relatively small.

What did the Saudi Crown Prince talk about?

Recently, with the acceleration of interaction among relevant parties, the possibility of Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel has received increasing attention from the outside world.

Recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad was asked in an interview about the negotiations related to the normalization agreement of Saudi Israeli relations. In response, he said, "Every day we are getting closer to this goal.".

He also denied reports that the relevant negotiations have come to a halt, stating that "good negotiations" are still ongoing.

However, Mohammad also pointed out that the Palestinian issue remains a key issue for whether an agreement can be reached, and "we need to solve this part of the problem.".

Mohammed also stated that if both sides can achieve a breakthrough, reach an agreement, and meet the demands of the Palestinians, he is willing to cooperate with any leader of Israel. He also stated that he hopes to achieve the goal of improving the lives of Palestinians and promoting Israel to become a participant in the Middle East.

When discussing the Iran issue, Mohammad said that Saudi Arabia and Iran have had a "good start" and hoped that this situation can continue. In April this year, with the mediation of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed diplomatic relations.

What are the plans of all parties?

On the same day as the interview with Mohammed aired, Biden and Netanyahu also held a meeting during the United Nations General Assembly.

This is the first meeting with Biden since Netanyahu became Prime Minister again at the end of last year. While discussing the Iranian nuclear issue and Israel's judicial reform, both sides also pledged to jointly promote the normalization of Israel Saudi relations.

The public opinion has noticed that the United States is increasing its contacts with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine in an attempt to normalize Israel Saudi relations as soon as possible.

Not only did the US Israeli leaders meet to discuss relevant issues, but US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also talked with Israeli and Palestinian leaders on the phone a few days ago. A group of US officials responsible for Middle East affairs also visited the Middle East recently to contact with Saudi Arabia and Palestine.

Analysis indicates that the United States and Israel have their own plans in promoting the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

The United States is pushing for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, which is not only the Biden administration's preparation for the 2024 election and hopes to make it a "bonus point" in Middle Eastern diplomacy, but also stimulated by the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Joel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Israel National Security Institute, pointed out that the United States recognizes the urgency of restoring its influence in the Middle East and hopes to strengthen its relationship with Middle Eastern allies by promoting the normalization of Israel Saudi relations.

Israeli leaders also make no secret of their desire to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

Currently, six Arab countries have normalized their relations with Israel, including Egypt and Jordan, which established diplomatic relations in the 1970s and 1990s, as well as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, which have normalized their relations under the mediation of the Trump administration since 2020.

If Israel can normalize its relations with Saudi Arabia, it may inspire more Arab countries to follow suit and further improve Israel's living environment and development space in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out the possibility of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.

As early as last year, Mohammad stated that Saudi Arabia sees Israel as a "potential ally". In June of this year, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal also stated that the normalization of Saudi Israeli relations would bring significant benefits to the region. However, he also stated that if a path to peace is not found for the Palestinians, the benefits of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be "limited".

Can an agreement be reached in the short term?

Although the United States and other parties are trying to accelerate their pace and create a positive momentum, the public opinion generally believes that the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia still faces numerous obstacles and may not be achieved overnight in the short term.

In terms of normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia's primary condition is that Israel must make concessions on the Palestinian issue.

Saudi Arabia has proposed that Saudi Arabia and Israel need to establish diplomatic relations, and Israel needs to accept the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Saudi Arabia and other countries in 2002, recognizing the "two-state solution.". Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also hopes that the United States can assist Saudi Arabia in implementing its civilian nuclear program and selling advanced weapons.

However, from the current situation, it is very difficult to meet the conditions in Saudi Arabia. Even Antony Blinken admitted last week that the normalization of Israel Saudi relations is still difficult, and the process is full of details, especially the Palestinian issue.

The current Israeli government is composed of right-wing and far right forces, known as the "most right-wing government in history", and has a very strong stance on Palestine. Although Netanyahu stated in his meeting with Biden that he believes Israel can reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia, he has repeatedly stated that he will not take any measures that may endanger Israel's security.

Secondly, if the US Saudi Arabia security relationship is to be upgraded, it will also face domestic resistance in the United States. US arms sales require approval from the US Congress, but many US lawmakers still criticize Saudi Arabia's role in the Kashgar case, the Yemen conflict, and rising oil prices.

In addition, Saudi Arabia, which currently maintains balanced diplomacy among major powers and accelerates its "eastward" pace, has also weakened its enthusiasm for the "anti Iran alliance" advocated by the United States and Israel.