Why is this year's G20 summit particularly important and urgent?, Depth | New Delhi prepares to welcome the world | G20 | Summit

This weekend, the G20 summit will kick off in a newly built building near the India Gate Monument.

This is India's first time hosting a G20 summit, and New Delhi has also set a beautiful vision for the world: "One Earth, One Home, One Future.".

At present, the global economic recovery is weak, the shadow of geopolitical conflicts is lingering, major country relations are subtle and complex, and cooperation momentum is insufficient. In the face of severe and difficult situations, the outside world expects that the New Delhi Summit can gather broad consensus, promote international cooperation, and convey confidence and hope.

The difficulty level has not decreased at all

Since taking over the G20 rotating presidency in December last year, India has been injecting effort into preparing for the summit and intends to leave a special mark on it.

In terms of theme creativity, the inspiration for this year's summit theme comes from the ancient wisdom of India, which is the expression "the world is a family" in ancient Sanskrit texts.

In terms of agenda setting, it is intended to promote countries from the "Global South" as the main focus of the summit, including jointly negotiating the agenda with the "Global South" and making the debt issue of the "Global South" a key issue.

India is also pushing for the African Union to join the G20 and inviting 9 non G20 member countries, most of whom are developing countries, to attend. Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized that Africa is India's "top priority" in the G20.

India has also invested heavily in funding. According to the Global Times, the Modi government spent $120 million on a "beautification project" for New Delhi. However, the result was that the poor suffered and became homeless.

As is well known, under the shadow of the Ukrainian crisis, the Bali summit in November last year was seen as the most difficult G20 summit. At that time, as the rotating presidency of the G20, Indonesian President Joko also lamented more than once that it was too difficult.

Now that the New Delhi Summit is about to take place, has the situation improved with Modi's strong operation and careful management?

"Compared to last year's Bali Summit, the difficulty level of this year's New Delhi Summit has not decreased at all," said Zhu Jiejin, a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University.

On the one hand, there is significant downward pressure on the global economy, with weak growth and difficult recovery, posing challenges to sustainable development and testing the G20's global economic governance capabilities.

On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts have not eased, and strategic competition among major powers remains fierce. The impact of the entire international environment on the G20 is becoming increasingly significant.

The Ukrainian crisis, which troubled Indonesia last year, is also plaguing India this year. As a host country, India is also carefully seeking a balance: on one hand, Russian President Putin did not attend the summit, and on the other hand, it did not invite Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was eager to attend.

This year, the absence of heads of state from China, Russia and other countries from the G20 summit has also attracted attention.

Fu Mengzi, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, believes that this year's G20 summit is facing a more severe global economic and political situation.

Firstly, the world economy has not developed in the expected direction.

According to the original prediction of international organizations, after the COVID-19 epidemic, with the accelerated flow of production factors, it is expected to promote recovery. However, the reality is not like this, but rather encountering more difficulties: high inflation, financial turmoil, developed countries tightening monetary policies leading to a siphon effect, developing countries falling into debt difficulties, and so on.

The underlying reason is that the inherent economic problems have not been resolved, and some countries have adopted protectionism, engaged in factionalization and small groups, introduced discriminatory measures, and disrupted international cooperation.

Secondly, the world is facing increasingly divided challenges.

Compared to the past when countries worked together to cope with global crises, there is now a lack of consensus on cooperation.

The United States and the West have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine crisis, and the United States has constructed political and economic mechanisms or frameworks to exclude China out of strategic competition with China.

These practices artificially create cracks and obstacles, disrupt the free flow of economic factors, exacerbate distrust among countries, affect the atmosphere of international economic cooperation, and thus weaken the synergy of international economic governance.

Therefore, this year's summit is particularly important and urgent, and under the current situation, it is even more necessary to gather consensus and promote cooperation. Moreover, as the main forum for international economic cooperation, it accounts for 60% of the global population and 80% of the world's economic output, making the G20 the most qualified and capable in this regard.

Try to dismantle the "time bomb"

According to news released earlier by India, a package of issues has been prepared for the New Delhi Summit, including resolving developing country debt, addressing climate change, regulating cryptocurrencies, reforming international financial institutions, and ensuring food and energy security.

Both scholars have stated that the debt issue will be the most urgent issue at this year's G20 summit.

Fu Mengzi pointed out that currently, the global debt problem is extremely severe, including developed countries. The situation is particularly severe in developing countries, with 54 countries in urgent need of debt relief.

"How to help them seek loans, change debt structures, strengthen monetary regulation, and so on, are all worth discussing at the summit." Fu Mengzi said that the summit needs to urge developed countries to take practical actions to help developing countries overcome their difficulties, while coordinating multilateral institutions to participate in global debt reduction and relief.

"The New Delhi Summit will discuss how to solve the deep-seated problems of the world economy, the most urgent of which is the debt problem." Zhu Jiejin said that it has become a "time bomb" for the world economy and has been discussed multiple times in the G20 meetings since the beginning of this year. This summit is expected to continue discussing how to slow down and reduce debt, as well as strengthening coordination among major powers in resolving debt issues.

Climate change and food security are also considered important issues.

Fu Mengzi pointed out that since the beginning of this year, extreme weather events have occurred frequently, posing a huge threat, and climate change has become a concern for human survival. India has invited organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, United Nations agencies, and the International Solar Alliance to attend this year, providing an opportunity for coordinating cooperation among all parties to solve the issue of climate change. At the same time, the combination of geopolitical conflicts and climate crises highlights the urgency of food security issues.

In addition, Fu Mengzi reminds that although India is trying to downplay the Ukraine issue and bring the G20 summit back on the right track of economic governance, the West still wants to put this issue on the agenda of the G20 summit. This move will not only cause a split in the G20, but also have an impact on whether a joint summit statement can be issued.

Due to significant differences in wording regarding the Ukraine crisis, several ministerial meetings prior to the G20 summit have not issued any joint statements since the beginning of this year, and there are concerns that the New Delhi summit will also be fruitless.

"The Bali Declaration balances the relevant wording, and the outcome of this year will test India's diplomatic capabilities," Zhu Jiejin said.

However, Zhu Jiejin stated that the summit still has promising results and highlights.

One possibility is that the African Union may join the G20, which has received widespread support from G20 members.

The second is to further improve global economic governance reform. Including IMF share reform, World Bank equity review, etc.

The third is to inject more momentum into promoting the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

China will release a clear signal

In promoting the development process of the G20, China has always played a constructive role, and "China's voice" and "China's contribution" are highly anticipated and praised.

According to the introduction of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be invited to attend this meeting to elaborate on China's views and proposals on cooperation with the G20, promote the G20 to strengthen unity and cooperation, and work together to address global economic and development challenges.

"This is Premier Li Qiang's first time attending the G20 summit, and it is expected that he will emphasize some basic concepts when elaborating on China's views," said Zhu Jiejin.

Firstly, firmly support the G20 and maintain its position as the main forum for international economic cooperation. Especially in the absence of China's top leader at the summit, whether China's attitude and policy proposals towards the G20 have changed has received high attention from the outside world. Premier Li Qiang's speech is expected to send a clear signal.

Secondly, in order to prevent further global economic downturn, promote recovery and growth, including sustainable development, China's suggestions are proposed.

Thirdly, highlight the concerns of developing countries and enable the G20 to develop in a more balanced direction.

Fu Mengzi believes that in the difficult times of global economic pressure and world division, China will make a loud and powerful voice on the G20 platform. The core proposition is expected to include emphasizing the G20's return as the origin and original intention of an international economic governance platform, calling for cooperation, cohesion, joint response to challenges, and promoting prosperity and development.

Because China is regarded as the engine of the world economy and has also contributed a lot of Chinese wisdom and solutions to the G20.

Entering the "Global South" Moment

It is worth mentioning that from 2022 to 2025, the rotating presidency of the G20 will be held in Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa, respectively, which is considered to have entered a "global southern" moment for the G20.

At this summit, India also focused on the "Global South" agenda and is committed to becoming a leader in the "Global South".

The outside world has noticed that compared to working together to overcome the difficulties of the 2008 international financial crisis, which established the important position of the G20 in global economic governance, the consensus and cooperation of the G20 seem to be "deteriorating", and even questioned whether the divided G20 can still set a global agenda.

In this context, what does the rise of the "Global South" mean for the G20?

In Fu Mengzi's view, in the context of weak global economic recovery, ineffective governance, and international political fragmentation, the "Global South" will bring opportunities for the development of the G20. Including developing countries seeking more independent and autonomous governance consensus; Significant economic strength and greater development potential; Beneficial for building a more equitable international economic order.

Zhu Jiejin pointed out that the G20 is currently in a situation of being divided by geopolitics and competition from major powers. The "Global South" opposes confrontation and takes sides, advocating for the overall direction of global economic globalization, which can help to reunite the G20.

For example, if the African Union joins, it can make the G20 more representative and more conducive to improving its global economic governance function. At present, among African countries, only South Africa is a member of the G20, and Africa's representation is seriously insufficient.

However, Zhu Jiejin believes that given the weak common demands of the "Global South" and the intention of some countries to compete for leadership, the extent of the impact of the "Global South" on the G20 still needs to be observed.

In his view, the fundamental way to boost the G20 lies in adapting to the competitive environment of major powers while achieving cooperation results and truly implementing them in certain areas such as climate change, health, taxation, etc.