Why has the relationship deteriorated? What does it mean for the Ukrainian crisis?, Poland announces cessation of arms supply to Ukraine | Poland | Ukraine

In recent days, as the dispute over Ukraine's "food ban" intensifies, the rift between Poland and Ukraine, a close ally, is deepening. According to Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News, and other reports, Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky announced on the 20th that Poland will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine. What is the reason for the deterioration of the relationship between Poland and Ukraine? What impact will this have on the direction of the situation between Russia and Ukraine?

Poland: No More Military Assistance to Ukraine

According to reports, Moravitsky stated in a program broadcasted on Polish TV News Channel on the 20th that Poland will no longer continue to hand over weapons to Ukraine, "because we need to equip ourselves with more modern weapons.".

On the 21st, Polish government spokesperson Miller further explained that Poland will only implement the arms supply agreement previously reached with Ukraine and supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine in accordance with the terms of the agreement.

Poland's move may be related to a statement by Ukrainian President Zelensky.

The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs urgently summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland on the 20th, expressing strong protest against Zelensky's remarks at the United Nations General Assembly the day before.

On the 19th, Zelensky said in his speech that "some European friends" were politically "performing unity" and fabricating horror stories with food, but in reality, they are now on the side of Russia.

Public opinion has noticed that, amidst Zelensky's covert accusations, the meeting plan between Polish President Duda and him during the United Nations conference has also come to an end.

During the United Nations General Assembly meeting on the 19th, Duda told media reporters that Poland cannot allow Ukrainian food to be sold in the Polish market without any control. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not want to understand this.

Duda said that Ukraine must remember the help provided by Poland, but Ukraine "now looks like a drowning person, desperately trying to grab anything we can... and we have the right to protect ourselves from harm.".

However, after the "mutual confrontation", there have been reports of the two countries resolving the food dispute.

On the 20th, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement calling on Poland to "put aside its emotions" in the agricultural dispute between the two countries. The Polish Ministry of Agriculture also stated that it has received a request from Ukraine to initiate negotiations on agricultural products, but "some issues still need to be resolved.".

Why has the relationship deteriorated?

After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February last year, Poland showed firm support for Ukraine. But recently, former close allies have started to turn against each other, and what has caused the discord between the two countries?

Public opinion points out that Poland's ban on selling Ukrainian agricultural products locally is the crux of the conflict between the two countries.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a large number of agricultural products could not be exported due to the blockade of the Black Sea ports. Through mediation, a large amount of Ukrainian agricultural products were transported by land through Eastern European countries such as Poland to other regions. However, due to logistics and other follow-up issues, most Ukrainian agricultural products can only be sold in Eastern European countries, causing an impact on local agricultural product prices and triggering protests from farmers in many Eastern European countries.

In May this year, the European Union announced temporary restrictions on the free trade of four Ukrainian agricultural products in Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, with only transit allowed.

On September 15th, after the ban expired, the European Union decided not to extend it, but Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia insisted on continuing to enforce the ban, causing dissatisfaction from the Ukrainian side. They appealed to the World Trade Organization for disputes and threatened to restrict the export of Polish agricultural products to Ukraine, further intensifying the conflict between the two sides.

Analysis indicates that as the harvest season approaches, issues related to agricultural products become more sensitive.

For Ukraine, food exports are an important source of income, and its agriculture is currently facing difficulties, so it is unwilling to make concessions.

According to the Ukrainian side, due to Poland and other countries banning the import of Ukrainian agricultural products, Ukrainian domestic exporters have suffered significant losses due to work stoppages, increased additional costs, and inability to fulfill orders. After the termination of the Black Sea agricultural export agreement in July this year, Ukrainian agricultural products were mainly transported by land, which significantly increased costs and put pressure on domestic agricultural exporters in Ukraine.

The Polish side is facing dual political and economic pressures.

The influx of Ukrainian agricultural products will lead to a significant drop in local grain prices in Poland. Due to severe inflation in Central and Eastern European countries, the significant increase in prices of production materials such as energy and fertilizers has led to a surge in food production costs, making the situation for farmers even worse.

Multiple media outlets have pointed out that Poland is about to welcome parliamentary elections in October, and the ruling party, the Law and Justice Party, is facing election pressure, with farmers being the main vote holders of the ruling party. Polish Prime Minister Moravitsky bluntly stated on the 20th, "For us, the interests of farmers are of paramount importance."

Or trigger a domino effect

Will it have an impact on the direction of the situation between Russia and Ukraine as the conflict intensifies and Poland stops supplying weapons to Ukraine? Analysis suggests that this reversal may trigger a backlash in Europe and affect Ukraine's counterattack.

In the eyes of the outside world, Poland is one of the "pioneers" of military aid to Ukraine.

After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Poland not only provided Ukraine with a large amount of weapons and equipment, but also became the main transportation channel for US and European countries to provide military aid to Ukraine.

Poland has also repeatedly exerted pressure on other European countries on the issue of military aid to Ukraine. In January of this year, while Germany was still hesitating about whether to provide Ukraine with German made Leopard main battle tanks, the Polish government took the lead in submitting an application to Germany, stating that it would form an alliance with other countries willing to assist Ukraine with Leopard tanks to increase pressure on Germany.

But now, as Ukraine's counterattack on the front line is making progress difficult, the fatigue of Ukraine within the West is increasing day by day, and Poland's attitude towards military aid to Ukraine has also turned cold.

Analysis suggests that Kiev and its allies are concerned that as Poland changes its attitude, other hesitant European countries may also follow suit, which may ultimately trigger a domino effect and result in more military aid being lost.