How will the "Korean War" end?, Yin Xiyue's arrest, depth | Li Zaiming's 20 day hunger strike

According to Xinhua News Agency, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol approved the arrest of Lee Jae myeong, the leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea. The South Korean parliament is expected to vote on related issues on September 21st.

According to reports, the Democratic Party of China has submitted a proposal to Congress recommending that Yoon Seok yeol revoke Han Dek soo's position as prime minister. At this point, the Korean "inter Korean war" has entered a critical moment.

Analysis suggests that in the context of South Korea's upcoming parliamentary elections in April next year, the two major parties, the ruling and opposition parties, are facing a "life and death" struggle, and the "gunpowder smell" in South Korean politics will become increasingly strong.

Showcasing a stance of resistance

On August 31st, Li Zaiming announced on the occasion of his first anniversary as the head of the Democratic Party that he would go on an "indefinite" hunger strike from that day on, protesting against Yin Xiyue's policies.

Li Zaoming's reasons for protest include: Yin Xiyue's government's poor economic management, its failure to bridge political differences, and its lack of accountability for the stampede accident of Itaewon last October. In the recent highly publicized issue of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge into the sea, Li Zaiming accused the government of Yin Xiyue of not only failing to express opposition, but also becoming an accomplice.

Li Zaiming also made three demands to the government of Yin Xiyue, namely apologizing to the people, expressing opposition to the discharge of contaminated water from Fukushima nuclear power into the sea, restructuring the cabinet, and "completely" changing the way of governance.

At first, Li Zaiming set up a tent in front of the Capitol to go on a hunger strike. On the 13th of this month, due to deteriorating health, he moved into the office of the party leader to continue his hunger strike. At the same time, medical staff and many members of the Democratic Party advised Lee Jae ming to stop his hunger strike, but he refused. Medical personnel say that after 10 to 14 days of fasting, there will be irreversible damage to health.

On September 18th, Li Zaiming, who had been on a hunger strike for 19 days, was urgently sent to the hospital due to deteriorating health conditions. According to reports, 59 year old Li Zaiming's blood sugar dropped sharply in the morning and he almost lost consciousness.

The next day, former South Korean President Moon Jae-in went to the hospital to visit Lee Jae ming, hoping that he would stop his hunger strike. Li Zaiming replied, "I understand," but did not indicate the intention to stop.

Some comments suggest that in South Korean politics, it is not uncommon to draw attention to its stance through hunger strikes.

Zhan Debin, Director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, said that hunger strikers must have strong determination. Without this determination, they cannot inspire sympathy from others, cannot arouse sympathy from others, cannot attract public attention, and thus exert pressure on the government.

Zhan Debin also noticed that Li Zaiming's hunger strike this time is different from the past, and has lasted for 20 days so far. Despite being persuaded by everyone and being urgently sent to the hospital, Li Zaiming still insists that this requires strong willpower.

Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said, "hunger strike protests are not uncommon in South Korea, but generally last for about 10 days. This time, Li Zaiming's resolute attitude can be said to set a new record."

Wang Junsheng and Zhan Debin both believe that Li Zaiming's determination to go on a hunger strike protest is related to three factors.

One reason is that the Democratic Party failed to create constraints on the government of Yoon Seok yeol, despite occupying a majority of seats in parliament.

Wang Junsheng noticed that since Yin Xiyue took office more than a year ago, Li Zaiming has repeatedly called for him to meet, but has not received a response.

"This is quite rare in Korean history," said Wang Junsheng. The South Korean parliament represents public opinion, and Lee Jae myung is the leader of the majority party. However, Li Zaiming was unable to communicate effectively with Yin Xiyue.

Zhan Debin said that in the view of the Common Democratic Party, the Yin Xiyue government does not listen to the opinions of opposition parties and public opinion in its governance.

The two scholars also noted that in terms of personnel appointments, candidates for the Ministry of National Defense and other department heads who were recently nominated by Yin Xiyue must undergo a parliamentary hearing, but they can ultimately be appointed regardless of whether it is approved by the parliament or not.

"Li Zaiming's hunger strike protest is a strong expression of dissatisfaction with Yin Xiyue's policies and a powerful protest posture," said Wang Junsheng.

"The Democratic Party hopes to gain public support through hunger strikes and pressure the government to make changes," said Zhan Debin.

The second is that the South Korean government and prosecutors are pressing Lee Jae myung step by step. Wang Junsheng noticed that the South Korean prosecutor's office has conducted over a hundred searches on Lee Jae myung's side and has issued multiple summons. While causing a blow to Lee Jae ming's image, the South Korean prosecution failed to provide solid evidence.

"Being forced to this point, Li Zaiming's helplessness can be imagined," said Wang Junsheng. The 20 day hunger strike reflects Li Zaiming's despair.

Zhan Debin said that South Korean prosecutors have launched multiple searches and summonings against Lee Jae ming, which appears to have political intentions.

Thirdly, Lee Jae ming's hunger strike protest may help strengthen party unity to jointly respond to the Yoon Seok yeol government, especially in the context of South Korea's upcoming parliamentary elections in April next year.

This election involves the political future of the National Power Party and the Common Democratic Party, and is a 'life and death' struggle. Wang Junsheng said.

Why is it pressing step by step

Although Li Zaiming's hunger strike sparked sympathy from the public, the government of Yin Xiyue remained unmoved. On the same day that Lee Jae ming was sent to the hospital, the Seoul Central District Prosecutors Office submitted a request to the court on September 18 for the arrest of Lee Jae ming, charged with dereliction of duty and bribery.

The court then forwarded this request to the government for processing. On September 19th, Yin Xiyue, who went to the United States to attend the United Nations General Assembly, signed the agreement in New York.

Both scholars stated that Yin Xiyue's move is related to political considerations. If the National Power Party fails to pass the midterm exam in next year's parliamentary elections, it will highlight the disadvantage of the Yin Xiyue government in its two years of governance and put it in a "lame duck" state. It may also endanger the National Power Party's election prospects in the next presidential election and Yin Xiyue's future. Wang Junsheng said that as Li Zaiming's image continues to be tarnished, there may be chaos within the Common Democratic Party. Once Li Zaiming is arrested, the Democratic Party of China may fall into a situation of "leaderless" and may lose in next year's parliamentary elections. At that time, the National Power Party is expected to "lie down and win", and Li Zaiming may face even more severe litigation attacks.

Zhan Debin also stated that Yin Xiyue's approval of the arrest of Li Zaiming may exacerbate the chaos within the Common Democratic Party. Within the Common Democratic Party, there is a view that Lee Jae ming should actively face the investigation to avoid leaving a negative impression on the public that the Democratic Party is abusing its majority advantage in the National Assembly to protect Lee Jae ming. Some members of the Democratic Party also criticized Yin Xiyue's actions as an attempt to "kill political opponents.". When the Congress votes on whether to approve the arrest of Lee Jae ming, internal differences within the Democratic Party may be made public.

Zhan Debin also pointed out the "enmity" between Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue. In the South Korean presidential election held in March 2022, Lee Jae ming, the presidential candidate of the Joint Democratic Party and former governor of Gyeonggi Province, was regarded as the popular "successor" of the then President Moon Jae-in, and his main competitor was Yin Xiyue. The final election results showed that Yin Xiyue won by a narrow margin of less than 1%.

After the government of Yoon Seok yeol took office in May 2022, Lee Jae ming, as the leader of the largest opposition party, has repeatedly criticized his domestic and foreign policies, including his passive response to the Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge into the sea. Li Zaiming also criticized Yin Xiyue's diplomacy with the United States as a humiliating one.

"For the National Power Party, defeating Li Zaiming is necessary to continue the regime. Therefore, it will use all possible means to strike it," said Zhan Debin.

Wang Junsheng also stated that Yin Xiyue's insistence on his own views is related to his style. "Yin Xiyue comes from a prosecutor's background and is decisive in his actions. He often carries out what he deems to the end."

Zhan Debin also stated that in Yin Xiyue's view, the prosecution is acting in accordance with the law, and approving the arrest of Li Zaiming is a legal process, which is understandable.

The intensification of the "war between the court and the opposition"

Next, there are several highlights that have received considerable public attention. Firstly, the health status of Li Zaiming and the progress of his hunger strike action. Both scholars have stated that Li Zaiming has been on a hunger strike for 20 days and his health condition is approaching its limit, which is about to endanger his life and is expected to not continue for too long.

Zhan Debin predicts that Li Zaiming may take advice from members of the Common Democratic Party to stop his hunger strike and consider it in the long run, but his recovery will take some time.

"If Li Zaiming stops his hunger strike now, it may be fruitless and unacceptable to the Democratic Party," said Zhan Debin. It is expected that the Common Democratic Party will use its seat advantage in Congress to launch an offensive against the government of Yoon Seok yeol.

"Even if Li Zaiming continues his hunger strike, it may still be difficult to achieve his goal of forcing the Yin Xiyue government to make compromises," said Zhan Debin. The latter remained indifferent to Li Zaiming's hunger strike protest and even mocked it.

The second question is whether Li Zaiming will be arrested. As a member of parliament, Li Zaiming enjoys immunity during parliamentary sessions, and his arrest requires the consent of the parliament.

According to reports, the South Korean National Assembly held a plenary session today to hear opinions on whether to approve the arrest of Lee Jae myung, and is expected to vote on September 21st.

Both scholars have noticed that in February this year, the South Korean parliament narrowly rejected a proposal to agree to the arrest of Lee Jae myung. At that time, the National Power Party criticized the Democratic Party for abusing its majority advantage in the National Assembly and evading anti-corruption investigations; The Common Democratic Party accuses the government of Yin Xiyue of engaging in political persecution and using prosecution agencies to combat political enemies.

Wang Junsheng stated that the next developments, including whether Lee Jae ming will be arrested or not, will largely depend on whether South Korean prosecutors and the government can provide "solid evidence" of Lee Jae ming's misconduct, which is also a major focus of the "war between the court and the opposition".

Zhan Debin stated that given that the Democratic Party holds a majority of seats in Congress and Lee Jae ming is still on a hunger strike protest after being hospitalized, the proposal to arrest him may be difficult to pass. Next, Li Zaiming's personal stance is also crucial.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that the Democratic Party of Korea submitted a proposal to the National Assembly on September 18th, recommending that Yoon Seok yeol revoke Han Deuk soo's position as Prime Minister. The National Assembly is expected to hear relevant opinions on September 21st.

Wang Junsheng stated that the dissatisfaction of the Democratic Party with the National Power Party has accumulated to a certain extent. Although we have not yet reached the stage of impeaching the president, this prospect is not entirely impossible. At present, the Common Democratic Party has launched an impeachment campaign against people around Yin Xiyue, including Defense Minister Lee Chung hee.

"The frequent turnover of high-ranking officials is one of the manifestations of the ineffective governance of the Yin Xiyue government, as well as one of the manifestations of the conflict between the government and the opposition," said Wang Junsheng.

Both scholars predict that this "war between the government and the opposition" will continue to intensify, at least until next year's parliamentary elections.

Zhan Debin explained that the Common Democratic Party needs to meet the expectations of its "fundamental" supporters, including restraining the government, which will stimulate the Common Democratic Party to take more action.

The National Power Party also needs to stabilize its "fundamentals" and is not expected to easily make concessions to the Common Democratic Party.

Zhan Debin noticed that Yin Xiyue had requested cabinet officials to become "warriors" and actively fight. This brings a sense of crisis to the Democratic Party, and the two major parties, the ruling and opposition, are becoming increasingly incompatible.