Has the United States "compromised" with Iran?, Mutual release of 5 prisoners, depth | unfreeze $6 billion in Iran as early as next week | United States

In recent days, a pair of archenemies seem to be quietly reconciling.

According to Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News, and Global Times, the Biden administration issued an exemption order on September 11th, allowing a transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar, and agreeing to release five Iranian citizens detained in the United States in exchange for Iran's release of five detained American citizens.

This is a procedural step in implementing the US Iran prisoner exchange and asset unfreezing agreement. The agreement was reached last month and is still in progress, with implementation as early as next week.

However, in contrast, the recent situation in the Persian Gulf has been tense, with the US Iran maritime standoff continuing.

Analysts point out that the achievement of the above agreement is a preliminary result of recent indirect negotiations between the two sides, and also a concession made by the United States in relaxing sanctions. However, this does not mean that the hostile situation in the relationship between the two countries will change.

Take what you need from each

$6 billion is just a drop in the bucket for the United States, which spends nearly $900 billion annually on military spending, but for Iran, which is suffering from sanctions, it has been eagerly anticipated.

Since the resumption of US sanctions against Iran in 2018, the Iranian central bank has frozen approximately $7 billion in crude oil payments in its South Korean account. Due to exchange rate fluctuations and lack of interest calculation, this asset has shrunk to $6 billion in the past few years. Now, Iran is finally expected to get its money back.

According to reports from the United States and Iran, South Korean banks will convert this money into euros and deposit it into Iran's bank account in Qatar; The United States and Iran will release five detainees from each other.

The outside world is not surprised by this. The United States and Iran have exchanged prisoners multiple times in history. The last large-scale prisoner exchange was in 2016, after the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue was reached. Iran has released four previously detained Americans, and it is reported that the Obama administration shipped $400 million in cash to Iran on the same day.

However, the background of this prisoner exchange is different from at that time. In the past period of time, the relationship between the United States and Iran has not only not eased, but both sides have continued to confront each other in the Persian Gulf region and are at odds.

The United States accused Iran of attacking oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in July, and then twice increased military presence such as fighter jets and destroyers in the Persian Gulf. It also threatened to send troops to protect local American merchant ships.

Iran is not willing to be outdone, not only increasing the deployment of attack drones and cruise missiles on Persian Gulf warships, but also announcing the successful test launch of supersonic missiles.

"The United States and Iran have always had both soft and hard hands, both in sharp confrontation and covert communication. Since the severance of diplomatic relations in 1980, communication channels have always been smooth." Li Shaoxian, Dean of the China Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, pointed out that in recent months, the two countries have been engaged in uninterrupted indirect negotiations under the mediation of Qatar and other countries, with two main contents: the Iran nuclear issue and the relaxation of sanctions, and the exchange of prisoners. Nowadays, reaching an agreement between the two parties is also a manifestation of each taking their own needs.

Looking at the United States first, Li Shaoxian believes that the Biden administration mainly has two demands: to brush up on political achievements and seek stability.

"In recent years, the United States has been hoping that Iran will release several detained Americans. Now that the United States has entered the election cycle, if the goal is achieved, it will undoubtedly be a political achievement for Biden." Li Shaoxian said, more importantly, Iran's nuclear negotiations have come to a standstill, and Iran's nuclear technology and capabilities continue to improve, producing enriched uranium with a 60% abundance. The United States is deeply concerned and has been pushing for cooperation between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran, hoping to maintain stability and not push Iran too hard.

As a result, there seems to be some kind of tacit understanding between the United States and Iran. Li Shaoxian discovered that in addition to unfreezing $6 billion in funds, Iran's oil exports have significantly increased in recent months. According to data, the daily export volume may reach 2 million barrels, which is not much different from before the resumption of sanctions in 2018.

"The United States is mainly focused on next year's election," said Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University. Returning to the Iran nuclear agreement was a promise made by the Biden team during the previous election. Nowadays, the Iran nuclear negotiations have not made progress, and if some progress can be made on other issues related to Iran, it will also be an explanation to voters.

Looking at Iran again, two scholars point out that Tehran has been hoping to break US sanctions and alleviate domestic shortages of foreign exchange, medicine, and food. The $6 billion funding can be said to be a timely aid, but it also means that the US's freeze on Iran's funds is beginning to loosen.

The United States "Let Go"

As expected, the agreement between the United States and Iran to exchange prisoners has sparked strong reactions within the United States.

Republicans in the United States launched a fierce attack, criticizing the Biden administration for being extorted by Iran and making concessions to Iran.

The White House argues that this move is in line with the national interests of the United States, that sanctions against Iraq have not been relaxed in the slightest, and that unfrozen funds can only be used for humanitarian purposes.

Some observers accuse the United States of being "hegemonic" and "double standard", clearly unfreezing Iran's own funds and strictly restricting the use of funds.

How do you view this prisoner exchange agreement? Has the United States made concessions? Has Iran broken through yet?

"The prisoner swap agreement is a preliminary progress made in recent negotiations between the two countries and has positive significance. Although the United States does not recognize it, it has clearly made a compromise on funding issues." Li Shaoxian pointed out that the United States has actually relaxed its sanctions on Iran. This is also a prerequisite for Iran's agreement to exchange prisoners.

Ding Long believes that both countries have scored points in diplomacy.

"The United States places great importance on the overseas security of its citizens. $6 billion is not America's money in itself, and it is easy to separate this agreement from sanctions against Iran, boasting about diplomatic achievements," Ding Long said.

For Iran, "it has regained its own assets, extended its legitimate rights and interests, and $6 billion can be used to solve some economic and livelihood issues. However, it does not mean that much progress has been made in breaking sanctions." Ding Long pointed out that changing prisoners is just an isolated case, and the United States has not relaxed its sanctions in other areas.

Create an atmosphere?

According to Iran's schedule, the $6 billion fund unfreezing process has begun, and asset transfers and prisoner exchange operations are expected to be completed next week.

Coincidentally, there may be another close-up encounter between the US and Iran high-level officials next week. Biden and Iranian President Lech will both attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week. Whether the two will shout across the air or perform other diplomatic tricks has sparked speculation.

Some insiders boldly speculate that this prisoner swap will create an atmosphere for the possible resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations by the end of the year.

In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and subsequently restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran. Starting from April 2021, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna to discuss the resumption of US Iran compliance, but no significant progress was made in the negotiations.

Now, with the advancement of the prisoner swap agreement, will the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement be revitalized?

"Recently, there have been some signs of possible restart in the Geneva negotiations," Li Shaoxian said. On the one hand, returning to the nuclear agreement and preventing Iran from losing control of its nuclear program is the established policy of the Biden administration, and it does not want to push Iran into a corner. On the other hand, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency have been in a cooperative state recently. Iran holds the sword of 60% enriched uranium, but it has not increased further and its production is controlled within a very small range.

From this perspective, "I hope that the Iran nuclear negotiations can be effectively promoted in the context of the smooth implementation of the prisoner swap operation. If they proceed smoothly in the future, all parties may also reach a temporary and phased agreement," said Li Shaoxian.

Ding Long pointed out that he is not very optimistic about the prospects of the Iran nuclear negotiations.

In terms of difficulty, compared to the prisoner swap agreement, the negotiation task of the Iran nuclear agreement is more arduous and involves more comprehensive goals. The conflict between the United States and Iran will not be resolved through a small prisoner exchange agreement.

In terms of willingness, with only one year left until next year's election, even if negotiations can resume, the possibility of reaching an agreement among all parties is very slim. To avoid dragging down the election, the Biden administration will not take risks easily.

On the other hand, in Iran, "the Lech administration has a more pragmatic attitude and is willing to see any minor breakthroughs," Ding Long said, but it is very firm in its bottom line and will not abandon its rights and principles in order to restore the agreement.

The situation remains unchanged

However, regardless of the direction of the current round of interaction between the United States and Iran, both scholars believe that the overall hostile situation of the US Iran relationship will not change, as there are still irreconcilable structural contradictions between the two countries.

"The United States will not tolerate the existence of the existing Islamic regime in Iran and is constantly expanding its influence. Since the establishment of the current Iranian regime in 1979, the United States has never changed its intention to replace it. As long as the current Iranian regime continues to exist, it will be difficult for US Iran relations to break free from the overall hostile situation." Li Shaoxian said that for Iran, it has always had a deep sense of great power complex. The current Iranian regime has always claimed to take the third path of independence from the East and West, which is the Islamic path. Although there are many people in Iran who advocate for being pro American and pro European, as long as the current regime exists, Iran will not rely on either side.

"The US Iran relationship has not been greatly eased due to the prisoner swap agreement," Ding Long pointed out. It is worth paying attention to how the US Iran will interact in the next step and whether negotiations will continue on matters other than the Iran nuclear agreement. But the United States will not abandon its hostile policy towards Iran. After the Ukrainian crisis, with the military cooperation between Iran and Russia, the US Iran relationship has added more complex and thorny factors.

It is worth mentioning that Ding Long believes that Iran's recent diplomacy is commendable. It actively seeks to break through the isolation and blockade of the United States and the West. By easing relations with neighboring countries, implementing strategies such as looking east and Asian integration, and increasing cooperation with other countries, we aim to expand political space, solve economic problems, and open up diplomatic opportunities.