Can Australia's "dual goals" be achieved?, The resumption of the high-level dialogue between China and Australia, depth | After three years, the relationship between China and Australia | China | Australia

After the visit of the US Secretary of Trade, the UK Foreign Secretary, and the Italian Foreign Minister to China, Beijing has welcomed another wave of Western guests.

According to media reports such as Global Times and Reference News, the Australian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website has issued a statement stating that the seventh China Australia high-level dialogue will be held in Beijing on September 7th. Both sides will engage in constructive discussions around a series of issues such as trade and investment, civil relations, and regional and international security.

This is the first time in over three years that the two countries have restarted the above-mentioned mechanism, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Australian Prime Minister's first-ever visit to China. What does this long-awaited dialogue mean for the China Australia relationship, which has been derailed in recent years and is gradually recovering now?

More stable pace

At present, an 18 member Australian delegation has arrived in Beijing, consisting of representatives from the Australian business sector, government agencies, academia, and media, including former ministers from the opposition Liberal Party, reportedly reflecting the consensus between the two parties in Australia to promote relations with China.

The Chinese delegation is also composed of officials, scholars, and other individuals from all walks of life. Chen Hong, director of the Australian Research Center at East China Normal University, is one of them.

The evening before the dialogue, a welcome banquet will be held, and the opening ceremony the next day will be open to the media, followed by a closed door session.

However, since January 2020, the mechanism has been suspended for over three years. Behind it, there are both factors that are interfered by the COVID-19 and the wrong policy towards China of the previous Australian government.

"The previous Morrison administration in Australia insisted on serving as a vanguard of the United States' strategy towards China, causing serious damage to China Australia relations." Chen Hong said that it was not until May last year that the Australian Labour Party government took office and took the initiative to cut ties with its predecessor's China policy, showing a more proactive attitude towards China diplomacy, and the China Australia relationship began to show signs of turning around.

Zhou Fangyin, Vice President of Guangdong Institute of International Strategy, pointed out that the Labour government is more pragmatic and different from the previous government that used "anti China" as a policy label. It focuses on economic development issues and emphasizes handling relations with China through dialogue and communication. At the same time, the Chinese side has also fully demonstrated sincerity.

This is the first official meeting between the leaders of the two countries in six years, laying the direction and tone for the development of bilateral relations.

Afterwards, ministerial level dialogue and mutual visits between the two countries gradually resumed. The Chinese Minister of Education, Australian Foreign Minister, and Trade Minister have all visited each other's countries.

In early August this year, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce lifted punitive tariffs on Australian barley, which was seen by the Australian side as a significant progress in bilateral relations. Prior to 2019, Australia had been the largest source country for imported barley from China.

Now, the resumption of high-level dialogue indicates that the momentum of restoring relations between China and Australia continues to maintain and the pace is more stable. Zhou Fangyin said that it can be said that the speed of the recovery of bilateral relations is faster than imagined, and the temperature is also higher than imagined. Both sides have achieved some substantial results, which have caused a relatively positive response within Australia.

Chen Hong believes that the resumption of dialogue is an important step and opportunity for improving bilateral relations and seeking solutions to differences. The overall political climate between China and Australia is improving, and both sides are willing to have frank exchanges. Australian Prime Minister Albanese has also expressed his willingness to visit China within the year. This is a positive trend in the relationship between the two countries.

More spacious

After three years, representatives from China and Australia have gathered again, and both sides should have a strong desire to express themselves.

"Economic and trade cooperation will become the primary topic, serving as the cornerstone, booster, and most important part of China Australia relations. It is crucial for the normal operation and development of the Australian economy." Chen Hong pointed out that after both sides resolved the barley tariff issue, wine has become a key focus for Australia to seek breakthroughs. The Australian delegation this time includes representatives from both the Wine Association and the heads of large wineries. They hope to push China to make policy adjustments.

"China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for 1/4 to 1/3 of Australia's foreign trade. Therefore, how to ensure the stability of such commercial interests is undoubtedly a topic of great concern to Australia." Zhou Fangyin said that the enthusiasm and expectation of all sectors of Australia to strengthen cooperation with China are rising, and China is expected to lift restrictions on wine, beef, lobster and other products.

In fact, after decades of close exchanges, the economic and trade footprints of China and Australia have already broken through traditional barriers.

"The two countries have strong economic complementarity, and cooperation is not limited to traditional fields such as minerals, agricultural products, aquatic products, and wine. There are also many areas of cooperation to cope with new changes, such as climate change, green and low-carbon, and new energy." Chen Hong said that China is a major exporter of electric vehicles and lithium batteries, and Australia has abundant lithium mines, but almost no refining technology. China's photovoltaic industry and wind power generation are very developed, while Australia has abundant wind and solar energy resources, and the two countries have cooperation space in these areas.

In addition to economic and trade, representatives from both sides will also exchange views and seek common language in areas such as cultural exchanges and regional security during the dialogue.

"The cultural exchange conference is a topic of concern for the Australian side." Zhou Fangyin pointed out that many schools in Australia rely heavily on Chinese international students for their finances. With the decreasing popularity of Chinese students studying in the United States, Australia has become a potential alternative option.

"Humanity and economy are closely related," Chen Hong said. Australia is a major country in tourism and education resources, and regards tourism and international study abroad as export products. This time, the Australian delegation also includes the chairpersons of the eight highest ranked universities in Australia. The Australian side hopes to attract more students and tourists from China to support related industries that have been hit during the pandemic.

In addition, Zhou Fangyin believes that Chinese representatives have a high interest in media exchanges. If some Australian media can better maintain rationality and objectivity, and avoid chasing rumors and hyping up anti China issues, it will create a healthier environment for the stability of China Australia relations.

Overall, "if Australian policymakers have sufficient political wisdom and can approach the relationship between the two countries with a more positive and stable attitude, and no longer use political labels to set obstacles for the relationship, I believe the prospects for cooperation between the two countries will be even broader." Chen Hong said.

Finding balance

It is noteworthy that just before the resumption of dialogue, Australia and the Philippines held a joint military exercise on the Philippine island facing the South China Sea, only 240 kilometers away from Huangyan Island. The elite US military secretly participated in the exercise, which included air combat and island seizure operations. It goes without saying where the sword points. Prior to that, Australia had just hosted the first US Japan India Australia Malabar naval exercise in Sydney.

Analysts believe that it is not surprising that military exercises and dialogues are held almost simultaneously. The recovery of China Australia relations does not mean that there are no differences between the two sides.

In terms of identity, Australia is a member of the "Five Eyes Alliance" and an Anglo Saxon country, viewing the Australia US alliance as the cornerstone of foreign policy. In terms of actions, it has participated in all military actions launched by the United States overseas in recent years, joined some regional and global small groups gathered by the United States, including the US Japan Australia India dialogue mechanism, the "Okus" US UK Australia alliance, etc. Its position in the US Indo Pacific strategy is still improving.

It can be seen that "both traditionally and in reality, Australia has been greatly influenced by the United States, and it is impossible to completely deviate from the track of the United States," said Chen Hong. But the question is, where should it go when following the long-term interests of the United States and Australia contradict its own interests?

Former Morrison was completely one-sided, willing to sacrifice his own interests to serve America's hegemonic strategy, thereby bringing adverse effects to his own security.

The Labour government seems to have taken a different approach. "At present, the Australian government hopes for the best of both worlds," Zhou Fangyin said, on the one hand, strengthening its own security through cooperation with the United States, and on the other hand, easing relations with China to avoid economic damage.

So, can it achieve this dual goal? What response will China make?

Zhou Fangyin pointed out that in the context of global changes, the complexity of China Australia relations cannot be ignored. It must be noted that maintaining basic stability in China Australia relations is of value to both countries. Firstly, the development of economic and trade cooperation can benefit both China and Australia. Secondly, the improvement of China Australia relations will help reduce the tone and momentum of anti China forces within Australia.

Zhou Fangyin also noticed that recently, there has been frequent interaction between China and Australia, as well as between China and the United States, but the relationship between China and Australia is very different from that between China and the United States.

Although US officials such as the Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Commerce, and climate envoy have visited China one after another, there has been no substantial improvement in US China relations, and the political direction of the US in dealing with and suppressing China has not changed. But the relationship between China and Australia is different, and the ministerial level visits of the two countries have indeed promoted the improvement of their relationship.

"From this perspective, Australia's policy towards China still has a certain degree of independence and is not entirely influenced by the United States' policy towards China. Although the relationship between China and the United States has continued to deteriorate in the past two years, the relationship between China and Australia is becoming more stable. Australia deserves recognition in this regard," said Zhou Fangyin.

Compared to New Zealand, which is known as the "Five Eyes Alliance," it can handle certain issues appropriately and cater to the United States, but in most cases, it does not cater to or even reject the United States. So far, the Labour government has been trying its best to control the balance.

Looking ahead to the future, Chen Hong pointed out that both China and Australia have shown a willingness to deepen understanding, reduce misunderstandings, and improve relations. There is a good chance for the relationship between the two countries to improve, deepen, and strengthen, but it still depends on Australia's political wisdom and ability to control the situation.

Zhou Fangyin pointed out that there is no fundamental conflict of interests between China and Australia, and Australia's policy towards China should not be kidnapped by other countries. Strengthening China Australia relations is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples. Next, the economic and trade relations between the two countries will become more stable, and the economic and social foundation will improve. But will Australia continue to focus on ideological issues? How much space is there for the development of China Australia relations to be independent of China US relations? These issues still need to be observed.