But the "temperature difference" still exists, and the US Vietnam relationship has "jumped two levels in a row". Depth | Biden's visit to Vietnam | Biden | United States | Temperature difference

Release time:Apr 16, 2024 20:45 PM

On the 10th, US President Biden visited Hanoi, Vietnam and held talks with General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Both sides have decided to elevate the US Vietnam relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Analysis suggests that in the context of the US government's promotion of the Indo Pacific strategy, the US hopes that Vietnam can play a greater role. Vietnam hopes to achieve its own development by strengthening cooperation with the United States in economic and trade fields.

However, there are a series of contradictions between the two sides that are difficult to resolve in the short term. We believe that Vietnam will continue to maintain balance among major powers.

"Critical moments"

After finishing his itinerary for the G20 New Delhi summit, Biden arrived in Hanoi on the 10th by special plane for a visit and held meetings with Nguyen Phuc Trong and other important Vietnamese leaders to discuss how to further deepen cooperation between the two countries.

According to the Global Times, Nguyen Phu Trong held a welcoming ceremony for Biden and his delegation at the official residence on the afternoon of the 10th. The accompanying officials of the US side included US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US Ambassador to Vietnam Napper, US Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan, etc. Subsequently, Biden and Nguyen Phu Trong held a meeting at the headquarters of the Vietnamese Communist Party. Both sides announced the upgrade of the US Vietnam relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

"In my opinion, this is a very critical moment, Vietnam and the United States are important partners," Biden said during his meeting with Nguyen Phuc Trong. "We will deepen our cooperation in important emerging technology fields, especially in establishing more resilient semiconductor supply chains."

Nguyen Phuc Trong stated that his meeting with Biden is an "opportunity" to expand bilateral relations and thanked Biden for inviting him to visit the United States.

According to Reference News, both sides have also signed an agreement on semiconductors and key rare earth minerals.

It is reported that Biden is also scheduled to meet with Vietnamese President Wu Wenshang and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Myung sung on the 11th. During his visit to Vietnam, Biden also planned to visit the monument of the late Republican Senator McCain, who was captured during the Vietnam War.

According to CCTV reports, the accompanying personnel from the US side also include executives from US technology companies such as Google and Intel, who are scheduled to meet with Vietnamese investors on the 11th.

There was already a foundation

The upgrade of US Vietnam relations this time is undoubtedly the focus of Biden's trip and has attracted attention from all sectors.

"The upgrade of US Vietnam relations to a 'comprehensive strategic partnership' has long been laying the groundwork, and rumors have been circulating since the first half of this year," said Wei Zongyou, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. Vietnam's foreign relations can be roughly divided into three levels, namely "comprehensive partnership", "strategic partnership", and higher-level "comprehensive strategic partnership". Previously, Vietnam had only established comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, Russia, India, and South Korea.

"This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the 'Comprehensive Partnership' between the United States and Vietnam. In recent years, the United States has been seeking to promote the upgrading of bilateral relations," said Du Lan, Deputy Director of the Asia Pacific Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of International Studies. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has been actively investing in Vietnam, vigorously wooing and using multiple measures to strengthen its offensive. Specific measures include donating a large number of military equipment, training Vietnamese military personnel, inviting the Vietnamese military to participate in joint military exercises organized by the United States, and dispatching the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan to visit Vietnam.

At the diplomatic and economic levels, in March of this year, Biden had a phone call with Nguyen Phuc Trong, intending to promote, develop, and deepen bilateral relations. Since this year, US Trade Representative Dai Qi, Head of the International Development Agency Paul, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Finance Minister Yellen have visited Vietnam in succession to seek to strengthen US Vietnam relations.

In early August, the US reported that Biden would visit Vietnam, which was seen as the "concluding act" of a series of diplomatic actions. The Global Times reported that this visit is Biden's first visit to Vietnam since taking office as president in 2021. Vietnamese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Ho Jin yu described this as a "very special" visit, as it was the first time a US President had made a state visit at the invitation of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and it coincided with the 10th anniversary of the establishment of a "comprehensive partnership" between the two countries.

He Jinyu also stated that economic and trade, investment, technology, regional and international cooperation are important topics for the leaders of both sides to discuss.

Each has its own considerations

When it comes to the consideration of the upgraded relationship between the United States and Vietnam, both scholars have noticed that this cannot be achieved without the push of the United States.

"Compared to the previous Trump administration, the Biden administration places more emphasis on the role and status of alliances and partners in the United States' foreign strategy, including the 'Indo Pacific strategy'," said Wei Zongyou. "In the United States' view, allies and partnerships spread across the world are its unique assets that need to be utilized."

"And Vietnam is a party to the South China Sea dispute. Through this escalation of relations, the US hopes to use Vietnam to restrain China on the South China Sea issue and increase its containment of China in the security field," said Wei Zongyou. The upgrade of US Vietnam relations this time also reflects the Biden administration's high regard for Vietnam, a Southeast Asian country.

Wei Zongyou also noted that the upgrade of US Vietnam relations this time focuses on economic, technological and other fields. "In the process of promoting the 'Indo Pacific Strategy', the Biden administration is promoting a 'small courtyard high wall' style restriction and blockade against China in the high-tech field. In this context, one of the contents of the upgrade of US Vietnam relations is to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in artificial intelligence, supply chain and other fields. This may lead to the transfer of business of some US companies and bring some benefits to Vietnam in the economic field, which can be regarded as one of the important measures taken by the United States to win over Vietnam."

"Overall, the US is promoting the upgrading of US Vietnam relations not only to win over Vietnam, but also to create space for further development of US Vietnam relations in the future," said Wei Zongyou.

Duran also stated that the Biden administration has been vigorously promoting the "Indo Pacific strategy" and making Southeast Asia an important focus. Recently, the United States has regarded the Philippines and Vietnam as "fulcrums" for advancing the Indo Pacific strategy and expanding influence in Southeast Asia.

"As the United States intervenes in regional affairs and woos Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam is an important partner," Duran said. The United States seeks to strengthen its relations with Vietnam in areas such as politics, security, diplomacy, and trade, hoping that Vietnam will play a greater role in the United States' promotion of the Indo Pacific strategy.

Duran also noted that currently, the upgrade of US Vietnam relations focuses on semiconductors, supply chains, and addressing climate change, and the US has also sent corresponding business delegations. "This may reflect the United States' policy adjustment in the region, focusing more on the needs of Southeast Asian countries, and achieving the goal of attracting by meeting these needs."

"Vietnam hopes to strengthen cooperation with the United States to solve some of the problems facing the domestic economy," said Duran. Previously, Vietnam's attitude towards the US proposal to upgrade bilateral relations was relatively vague. But currently, with the active efforts of the United States to win over, it may also be due to the consideration of strengthening cooperation with the United States, that the US and Vietnam have upgraded their partnership on the occasion of Biden's visit.

Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam's economy has shown a sluggish trend, with a GDP growth rate of 3.3% in the first quarter and 3.7% in the first half of this year, which is significantly slower than last year's 8% growth rate.

"This is related to Vietnam's export-oriented and highly dependent economic development model on exports to the United States," Duran explained. According to the Global Times, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market. In 1995, the bilateral trade volume between the two countries was 450 million US dollars, and by 2022 it had reached 123 billion US dollars. Vietnam is the largest trading partner of the United States in ASEAN.

"Therefore, Vietnam hopes to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with the United States, while seizing the financial and technological support provided by the United States, in order to achieve domestic industrial upgrading, develop the digital economy, and become a new 'center' in key supply chains and other aspects.". For this reason, Vietnam is also actively integrating into regional economic cooperation mechanisms such as the "Indo Pacific Economic Framework" proposed by the United States, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

There are differences

"Overall, the US hopes to strengthen its relationship with Vietnam in areas such as the economy," said Wei Zongyou. But there are still a series of differences and contradictions between the two sides that are difficult to resolve, at least in the short term.

Firstly, there are differences between the two sides in terms of political system, ideology, and other aspects.

Secondly, as the new US election approaches, domestic politics may undergo changes, leading to doubts about the continuity of its policies from the outside world. "In next year's election, if Trump makes a comeback, there may be a drastic change in the United States' foreign policy."

Furthermore, Vietnam adheres to the "Four Nos" national defense policy, which means that Vietnam does not allow any country to establish military bases in Vietnam, does not participate in any military alliances, does not use force against any country, and does not unite one country against another.

In addition, Vietnam and China are neighbors who cannot be moved away, and China and Vietnam have close exchanges in economic and trade fields. Since the beginning of this year, there have been close bilateral exchanges between China and Vietnam. At the end of August, Nguyen Phuc Trong stated that Vietnam prioritizes the development of relations with China. From September 4th to 6th, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the External Relations Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, led a delegation of the Communist Party of China to visit Vietnam and held meetings with Nguyen Phu Trong and others.

"Therefore, Vietnam will not completely lean towards the United States in diplomatic and other fields. While upgrading bilateral relations with the United States, Vietnam will also avoid causing tension in Sino Vietnamese relations," said Wei Zongyou.

However, if the US continues to establish "small groups" in the military field and pursue "decoupling" in the economic and trade field, it will exacerbate regional tensions and hinder the rational division of labor in the industrial chain on a regional and global scale, thereby hindering global economic development.

Duran also expects that, given the needs of both sides, the US Vietnam relationship will further deepen. However, a series of inherent contradictions between the two countries are difficult to resolve in the short term, including ideological and political system conflicts. At the political level, Vietnam's trust in the United States is also difficult to achieve overnight.

Duran also pointed out that Vietnam's diplomatic strategy has always adhered to independence and autonomy, with a color of maintaining balance among major powers. In recent years, Vietnam has pursued a "bamboo style diplomacy" characterized by both struggle and cooperation, not leaning towards any side, being flexible, pragmatic, and resilient.

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