Advance planning for re election as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party?, Kishida reorganized his cabinet again, and after more than a year, the depth | personnel | Liberal Democratic Party | cabinet

On September 13th, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reorganized his cabinet and adjusted the senior personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party, marking his second cabinet reshuffle since August last year. After the restructuring, both the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense were replaced.

Analysts point out that Kishida's personnel reshuffle this time is aimed at boosting the sluggish support rate and preparing for his search for re-election as the Liberal Democratic Party president next year. However, some inherent risks still pose a risk of fermentation, and it remains to be seen whether the new cabinet can effectively increase its support rate.

Boost popularity and aim to turn the tide of decline

Before the restructuring, Kishida Fangfeng stated that he was preparing to boldly refresh the lineup of his colleagues.

From the new cabinet list released by the Japanese government, it can be seen that there have been significant changes.

Among the 19 cabinet members, 13 have changed, with 6 remaining, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyoshi Matsuno, Finance Minister Junichi Suzuki, Minister of Economy and Industry Yasumi Nishimura, Minister of Economic Security Hayao Takashi, Minister of Digital Affairs Taro Kono, and Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Tetsuo Saito from the Komeito Party.

Eleven people entered the cabinet for the first time, including Defense Minister Toshio Kihara and General Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki.

The number of female cabinet members has more than doubled, from the original 2 to 5.

The most notable change may be the exchange of positions between the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense. The position of Foreign Minister, previously held by Lin Fangzheng, was replaced by former Minister of Justice, Yoko Uesukawa. The Defense Minister was appointed by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's assistant, Toshio Kibara, replacing Yasuhiro Hamada.

In terms of high-level positions within the party, among the four major positions of the Liberal Democratic Party, Secretary General Toshio Mori and Political Consultative Conference Chairman Mitsuichi Hagimoto remain in office. The former Chairman of the Election Strategy Committee, Yuki Moriyama, was transferred to the position of General Affairs Chairman, and former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's daughter, Yuko Obuchi, took over as Chairman of the Election Strategy Committee. In addition, Vice President Taro Aso will continue to serve.

Last August, Kishida hastily reorganized his cabinet. Now, after just over a year, why is there another reshuffle of personnel?

Analysts all point to an important goal: to salvage the precarious approval rating and reshape the image and credibility of the cabinet.

According to a poll conducted by Xinhua News Agency citing the Daily News at the end of August, the support rate for the Kishida Cabinet dropped to 26%, and it has been in a "dangerous water zone" of below 30% for two consecutive months.

Wu Jinan, Honorary President of the Shanghai Society of Japan and Senior Researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, pointed out that the low support rate for the Kishida Cabinet is mainly due to several reasons.

One is the impact of the scandal. For example, Kishida's most capable aide, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara, and his eldest son have successively exposed scandals, which have damaged the image of the cabinet. The Kishida Cabinet's forced promotion of "personal identification cards" has also been criticized for its numerous flaws.

The second issue is that governance is unpopular. On the one hand, soaring prices make it difficult to cope. On the other hand, despite opposition from the domestic public and fishing groups, nuclear wastewater is forcibly discharged into the sea. Nearly 80% of the public believe that the Kishida government has not explained it clearly.

Zhang Boyu, Director of the Political Research Office of the Japan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that according to institutional practice, senior officials of the Liberal Democratic Party change every year, but there are no clear provisions for cabinet reshuffle. The main consideration for this simultaneous meeting is to reverse the declining trend of cabinet support and boost the hearts of both the government and political parties.

"Kishida originally hoped to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election in the first half of the year, but due to negative events such as scandals involving his eldest son, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, and repeated errors in his' personal identification card ', the cabinet's approval rating declined. Therefore, he dissolved the plan to dissolve the House of Representatives and instead sought personnel restructuring to turn the tide."

In addition, frequent cabinet reshuffles are also a characteristic of Japanese politics. Wu Jinan explained that in post-war Japan, after being elected as a member of parliament five or six times, he was qualified to enter the cabinet. Serving as a cabinet minister is a common aspiration of all Japanese politicians, and frequent cabinet reshuffles create opportunities for them to enter the cabinet. Therefore, each political faction has its own reserve team of ministers, and whenever the cabinet is reorganized, it will elect candidates for its own faction's ministers in order to achieve its dream of entering the cabinet. As for the ability and conduct of the candidate, it is another matter.

Reflecting tradition and displaying wrists

In the eyes of analysts, this high-level personnel adjustment has shown some obvious characteristics.

The first is to seek stability.

Zhang Boyu pointed out that in this restructuring, key cabinet members and key figures of the Liberal Democratic Party have not changed, indicating that Kishida is seeking to stabilize the political situation and ensure that policies can be stably implemented and executed.

The second is to introduce new products.

Wu Jinan believes that 11 out of 19 cabinet members have entered the cabinet for the first time, and the number of female cabinet members has increased from 2 in the previous term to 5, giving a refreshing feeling. For example, after a gap of 19 years, a female Foreign Minister was reappointed, and Yuko Kobayashi, daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Kobayashi, was appointed as the Chairman of the Election Strategy Committee.

"This time, there have been many new faces and an increase in the number of female officials, bringing a sense of freshness and freshness, giving the public new changes and new prospects," said Zhang Boyu.

The third is balance.

For example, in terms of cabinet arrangements, the positions of cabinet members in major factions such as Abe faction, Aso faction, and Maomu faction are on par with the previous one; The second tier faction of non mainstream factions also remained unchanged, while the Kishida faction gave up a position to the Tanigaki Club to appease them.

Zhang Boyu noticed that during the adjustment of the senior leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party, the former Chairman of the Election Strategy Committee, Yu Moriyama, was appointed as the President of the General Affairs Bureau. The reuse of Moriyama is to appease the non mainstream faction within the party, the Moriyama faction, which is closely related to the second tier faction of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and former Secretary General Toshihiro Terai.

"In this Kishida reorganization, the tradition of Japanese factional politics has been fully reflected," said Wu Jinan.

Zhang Boyu stated that Kishida has integrated personal interests, government interests, and public opinion demands in this personnel adjustment, demonstrating certain skills.

Double replacement, policy changes?

Political personnel changes often convey subtle policy signals. For example, all the officials in charge of economic affairs will remain in office this time, but both the Foreign Minister and the Defense Minister will be replaced, especially the Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng, who is known as the "Zhihua faction", will be eliminated. What do these changes really mean?

According to Wu Jinan's observation, this cabinet reshuffle reflects the intention of Kishida to focus on two key policies of economy and security, and hopes to ensure the continuity of the policies.

Although the change of Foreign Minister and Defense Minister this time does not necessarily mean a significant change in the foreign and defense policies of the Kishida government, according to the two scholars.

Let's first look at the external appearance. The appointment of 70 year old former Minister of Justice, Yoko Uesukawa, who has no diplomatic background, as Minister of Foreign Affairs is quite eye-catching.

Wu Jinan stated that Kishida is skilled in diplomatic affairs and is known as the "Kishida of diplomacy". Therefore, whoever serves as Foreign Minister will faithfully implement Kishida's will and promote his foreign policy ideas.

Zhang Boyu also holds the same view.

"Although Lin Fangzheng is considered a 'know China faction', Japan's relations with China have not made progress since he took office as Foreign Minister." Zhang Boyu said that since diplomacy is Kishida's strong point, who is the Foreign Minister is irrelevant and will not change the established policy direction. However, it should be noted that both Yoko Uesukawa and Yoshimasa Lin come from the Kishida faction and have gained Kishida's trust. This should be the basic criterion for Kishida to select a foreign minister.

Zhang Boyu analyzed that the reason for transferring former Minister of Justice, Yoko Uesukawa, to the position of Foreign Minister may also be due to the consideration of dealing with the aftermath of nuclear wastewater discharge into the sea. This includes compensating domestic fishermen for losses and responding to external public opinion doubts, all of which require officials with legal experience to handle.

There are also comments pointing out that Uesugawa values the relationship between Japan and South Korea, and Kishida may want to strengthen the gradually warming relationship between Japan and South Korea through this appointment.

Let's take a look at the prevention measures again. At the age of 54, Takeshi Muhara has entered the cabinet for the first time and is considered to have a pro Taiwan sentiment.

However, Zhang Boyu believes that due to the fact that the Kishida government has already formulated defense policies and issued the three security documents, the main responsibility of Toshihiro Muhara is to implement and execute them.

"Mr. Kihara has previously served as the Deputy Minister of Defense and is familiar with defense affairs. His defense policy is not expected to change due to cabinet reshuffle," said Wu Jinan.

Pave the road ahead, but the hidden dangers still exist?

Against the backdrop of low cabinet support, this reshuffle is also seen as Kishida's "last opportunity" to boost popularity before next year's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.

Both scholars believe that the latest personnel arrangements reveal Kishida's intention to lay out for next year's CEO election.

"The Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election will be held next year, and Kishida hopes to be re elected as president, especially without the need for voting or competition. The intention of this personnel change to win over the powerful factions within the party is very clear," said Wu Jinan.

One major sign is that after the high-level restructuring of the Liberal Democratic Party, the party continues to implement the "three headed politics", namely the "AMA" alliance led by Masao Maomu Kishida.

The remaining Vice President of the Liberal Democratic Party, Taro Aso, and Secretary General Toshio Morimu are the leaders of the second and third largest faction within the party, respectively. The Chairman of the Political Consultative Conference, Koichi Hagi, is a heavyweight figure of the Abe faction, the largest faction within the party. Although Hagimoto Mitsuichi had an affair with the Unification Church, in order to gain support from the Abe faction, Kishida also took the risk to let him stay in office and intended to support him as the new leader of the Abe faction.

Zhang Boyu also pointed out a detail of the "layout": Kishida locked his main competitors, Taro Kono, Hayao Takashi, and Toshio Mori, in party and government positions, aiming to constrain and "block" them, eliminate re-election barriers, and consolidate his advantageous position.

The question is, how effective is personnel restructuring in boosting support rates?

"It is difficult to assert that this personnel change will bring about a rebound in the support rate of the Kishida Cabinet," said Wu Jinan.

At present, there are at least three major hidden dangers, like a "time bomb" with the risk of detonating at any time.

Firstly, there is a scandal involving the collusion between the Liberal Democratic Party's political leader, Koichi Hagimoto, and the Unification Church.

Kishida plans to dissolve the "Unification Church" in the near future, which may once again expose Hagimoto Mitsuichi's collusion with the "Unification Church" and trigger a political earthquake.

Secondly, if the sequelae of forcefully promoting "personal ID cards" erupt in a concentrated manner, it will undermine the credibility of the government.

Thirdly, the continued negative reaction of nuclear wastewater discharge into the sea will lead to setbacks in Kishida's governance.

Zhang Boyu expects that after the personnel restructuring, Kishida's cabinet support rate will be boosted. However, after the establishment of the new cabinet, Kishida faced many challenges. Dealing with the follow-up issues of nuclear wastewater discharge into the sea, dealing with inflation, and quelling the controversy of personal identification card errors will all become urgent and challenging challenges for the new cabinet.