Adjusting diplomatic personnel... The Indo Canadian diplomatic dispute has escalated sharply, with visa business suspended. Canada | India | Diplomacy

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on September 21 that due to a "security threat" to the staff of the Indian embassy and consulate in Canada, India has suspended visa services for Canadian citizens.

On the same day, the Canadian High Commissioner's Office in India stated that due to threats posed to diplomats in India on social media, Canada had decided to adjust the number of diplomats in India.

The public opinion believes that this round of tit for tat confrontation marks a sharp escalation of diplomatic disputes between the Inca countries. The sharp shift in the relationship between these two major powers may also affect the international situation, including the diplomatic strategy of the United States.

The dispute escalated sharply

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Alindam Bagge said on the 21st, "Due to the inaction of the Canadian government, the security situation has been disrupted, and we have suspended visa operations."

Earlier on the 21st, the Canadian Indian Visa Application Center announced on its official website, "Important notice from the Indian Embassy: Due to operational reasons, the Indian visa business will be suspended from September 21st until further notice."

Some comments suggest that India's complete suspension of issuing new visas to a Western country is unheard of, marking a low point in Indo Canadian relations. Meanwhile, this move is also in line with India's increasingly tough and independent foreign policy.

According to reports, this decision by the Indian side has quickly caused a response in Canada, especially among groups associated with India. According to data from the Indian Immigration Service, Canadians are one of the main sources of tourists in India, with 277000 Canadian tourists visiting India in 2022.

At the same time, India has also sent a large number of international students to Canada. In 2022, the number of Indian students studying in Canada increased by 47% to 320000, accounting for approximately 40% of the total number of Canadian overseas students.

Some Indian Americans in Canada have expressed disappointment that their planned itinerary, which involves wedding arrangements, visiting family, etc., has suddenly been affected and they have been involved in this dispute.

However, the confrontation between the Incas did not end there. Bagge also hinted that Canada should reduce the number of diplomatic personnel stationed in India. He said that the Indian side has informed the Canadian side that the size of diplomatic missions on both sides should adhere to the principle of equality. The number of Canadian diplomats in India far exceeds that of Indian diplomats in Canada... I believe that the Canadian embassy and consulate in India will reduce personnel.

Earlier that day, the Canadian High Commissioner's Office in India issued a statement stating that due to threats posed to diplomats in India on social media, Canada has decided to adjust the number of diplomats in India. However, the Canadian side did not specify how many diplomats will be withdrawn from India, only stating that the embassy and consulate are currently "open and still operational.".

Although the scale is not yet clear, Canada's move to reduce the number of diplomatic personnel in India itself may cause significant harm to bilateral relations.

The contradiction has a long history

In recent days, tensions have continued in Inca relations over the shooting of a Canadian Sikh religious figure.

On the 18th of this month, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said that Canadian security agencies have been investigating potential links between Indian government agents and the murder of Canadian citizen Hadip Singh Nigel. The Canadian side has expressed deep concern to the Indian side, and Trudeau urged the Indian side to cooperate with the Canadian side to thoroughly investigate this incident.

On the same day, Canadian Foreign Minister Jolly announced that Canada had expelled a senior Indian diplomat on suspicion of being involved in the assassination of Nigel.

45 year old Nigel immigrated from India to Canada in the 1990s. He advocates for independence in some parts of India and was listed as a terrorist by the Indian side in July 2020. On June 18th this year, Nigel was shot dead outside a Sikh cultural center in Surrey County, British Columbia, Canada, sparking public attention in Canada.

The Indian side denies the allegations made by the Canadian side and states that the Canadian side has not provided any relevant evidence so far. While expelling a Canadian diplomat, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also advised Canadian citizens to be "careful" and stated that anti Indian activities, hate crimes, and violent crimes are increasing in Canada.

In fact, the issue of Sikh anti Indian protests has long been a subject of constant friction between the two countries. This is partly due to the close relationship between the two countries. According to the 2021 census, there are approximately 1.4 million Indian Americans in Canada, of which more than half are Sikhs.

In India, some Sikhs seek to establish an independent state in the northern Punjab and even resort to violent means. When participating in domestic Indian Sikh protests in 2020, Trudeau expressed support for the protests, and the Indian side accused Canada of interfering in its internal affairs.

Helplessly lowering the tone?

Currently, the death of Nigel is seen as the latest "trigger". There are reports that in Canada, the latest dispute has reignited the long-standing tensions among Indian expatriates. On the one hand, nationalists are committed to maintaining India's national unity. On the other hand, Sikhs are still committed to advocating for regional independence.

At present, this dispute has also affected the economic and trade aspects, and bilateral trade negotiations between India and Canada have come to a standstill. Industry estimates show that if India and Canada reach a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, bilateral trade is expected to increase by $6.5 billion.

At the same time, the sharp shift in the relationship between these two major powers may also affect the international situation. It is worth noting that Canada and India, one is an old friend of the United States, and the other is a new friend that the United States has been cultivating. Some comments suggest that the latest dispute between the two countries has put US President Biden in a dilemma.

On the 21st, US National Security Advisor Sullivan stated that the US is maintaining contact with both countries regarding this matter, and Washington has not given India "special treatment".

The public opinion has noticed that although Canada has received support from the United States and allies such as the United Kingdom have expressed concern about Nigel's death, Canada seems to have not received substantial support from its allies, including public standing in line and condemnation.

According to the Global Times citing Reuters on the 21st, Canadian intelligence usually attracts attention from allies, but this time it is an exception. The report states that this is because Western countries such as the United States are showing goodwill to India to balance China. Shortly after the G20 New Delhi summit, Trudeau launched a rare attack on India, putting the West in an awkward position.

"Canada's accusations against India have only received silence from allies," the Global Times also quoted the Associated Press as saying in its 21st report.

There are also reports that the low-key response from Canada's allies is related to India's growing power. In recent years, India, with a population of over 1.4 billion and a large military, has increasingly become a major force in world affairs. In the future, India is expected to surpass Japan and Germany to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030.

According to the Global Times, former Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Agency, Fadden, said, "Without the public or private support of allies, Canada cannot take action against India."

In this situation, Trudeau seems to have lowered the tone. On the sidelines of his attendance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he said, "India is undoubtedly an increasingly important country and one that we need to continue to cooperate with." He said that Canada has no intention of provoking India or causing trouble, but he also emphasized the importance of the rule of law and protecting Canadians.

Next, the development of the situation may depend on whether Canada can provide evidence. The latest report suggests that the Canadian allegations are based on surveillance of Indian diplomats in Canada, and some intelligence was provided by a member of the "Five Eyes" alliance. At present, the specific details are not yet clear to the outside world, but the alliance is composed of the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

On the 19th, US officials also stated that, given Trudeau's willingness to make a public statement, the White House believes that the Canadian leader may hold evidence.