Can Israel be made to give up its attack on Rafah? ,In-depth|U.S. suspends some military aid to Israel Biden|Liu Zhongmin|Military aid
At a time when the United States has repeatedly "drawn red lines" but Israel still insists on planning to launch a large-scale offensive in the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, US President Biden has sent the clearest signal so far.
Biden said on the 8th local time that if the Israeli army attacks Rafah, the United States will not provide it with bombs and other weapons. The bombs the United States has previously provided to Israel have been used to kill Palestinian civilians. According to multiple officials, the U.S. government has decided to suspend the delivery of a batch of weapons to Israel.
Analysts believe that this is the first time since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict lasted for more than seven months that the United States has publicly "linked" military aid to Israel's military operations. However, it still needs to be determined whether it can change Israel's next actions in Rafah. A question mark.
On the 8th, Biden publicly spoke out for the first time about the United States suspending the delivery of some weapons to Israel.
Biden admitted in an interview that Israel used bombs previously aided by the United States to bomb densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip, killing civilians.
He said that the current operations of the Israeli army are limited to southern Rafah and the border area between Gaza and Egypt, but have not yet touched the densely populated areas of Rafah city. He has clearly informed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and members of the Israeli war cabinet that if the Israeli army attacks the densely populated areas of Rafah, although the United States will continue to provide Israel with defensive weapons, artillery shells and other weapons will be immediately banned.
According to data released by the WHO, approximately 1.2 million Palestinian civilians have taken refuge in Rafah. The international community is worried that if the Israeli military launches ground operations, it will inevitably cause a large number of civilian casualties.
Before Biden spoke out, it was reported that the Biden administration had decided last week to suspend the delivery of a batch of weapons to Israel. On the 8th, this was also confirmed by multiple US officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said at a congressional hearing that some military aid originally planned to be sent to Israel in the near future is currently being suspended and "re-examined" based on the development of the situation in Rafah. US State Department spokesman Miller also confirmed the decision to suspend military aid to Israel, saying that the United States is "gravely concerned" about Israel's potential military action against Rafah.
According to reports, the temporarily suspended military aid includes 1,800 bombs weighing 2,000 pounds and 1,700 bombs weighing 500 pounds.
Public opinion believes that this is the first time Biden has publicly "linked" U.S. military aid to Israel's actions. It is also the clearest signal Biden has sent to Israel and domestic critics since the Gaza conflict.
The outside world has noticed that in recent times, the United States has gradually increased pressure on Israel, and the rift between the two sides has continued to deepen.
In March this year, when the United Nations Security Council adopted the Gaza ceasefire resolution, the United States abstained from the vote and no longer continued to use a "one-vote veto". In April, the United States imposed sanctions on the Israeli military for the first time for violating the human rights of Palestinians in the West Bank. In the same month, the U.S. State Department announced that five Israeli security forces had committed serious human rights violations.
On the issue of Rafah, the United States has repeatedly "drawn a red line" and called this "a mistake." On May 6, during his last phone call with Netanyahu, Biden also reiterated his opposition to a large-scale attack on Rafah.
From firmly supporting Israel, issuing warnings covertly and overtly, to providing military aid to Israel, why has the Biden administration's attitude towards Israel changed?
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the Biden administration is facing tremendous domestic and foreign pressure recently. Domestically, the U.S. presidential election in November is just around the corner, but the continued anti-war protests in the U.S. amid the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are jeopardizing Biden's election. Internationally, Israel's insistent actions have also led to criticism of the United States, leaving the United States isolated in the international community.
However, Liu Zhongmin also pointed out that to some extent, it is not ruled out that the latest move by the United States is just a diplomatic gesture. Recently, there is news that the United States is focusing on making longer-term arrangements for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and hopes to reach a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia and Israel, which includes the United States providing security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and Israel Allow Palestine to establish a state.
"Judging from these signs, the United States does not seek to abandon Israel. Although the two sides have differences on the Rafah issue, they will not lead to a complete reversal of US-Israel relations." Liu Zhongmin said.
Can the United States reverse some of its military aid to Israel by suspending some of its military aid to Israel? Analysts believe the effect may be limited.
First of all, the military aid that the United States has suspended only involves a small part of the aid to Israel, and it is difficult to have a substantial impact on Israel.
Liu Zhongmin said that before the United States suspended military aid, Israel may have accumulated relatively sufficient arms. Israel's channels for obtaining military assistance from other European allies have not been closed either.
According to current and former U.S. officials, since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, the U.S. government has secretly delivered large amounts of weapons to Israel through more than 100 separate arms sales, but has only announced two of them to the public so far. In April, about $26 billion of the $95 billion foreign aid bill signed by Biden was also used to support Israel.
Secondly, Biden’s decision to suspend aid to Israel is still met with domestic opposition in the United States.
Although some U.S. Democratic congressmen praised Biden's latest move and believed that the United States should use all its influence to reach a ceasefire, many Republican congressmen have criticized Biden's move as "short-sighted" and a "strategic mistake."
Finally, Israeli behavior patterns are difficult to change.
Liu Zhongmin said that since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the pressure on Israel has continued to accumulate and will not be completely changed by the actions of the United States. The Israeli government's policy of launching military operations in Rafah has also become "hard to turn back." Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted that his major goals of freeing detainees, eliminating Hamas, and making Gaza no longer a security threat to Israel will not change.
"Judging from the will and external stance of the Israeli government, Israel may not stop at Rafah," Liu Zhongmin said.
Raphael Cohen, a policy expert at the Rand Corporation, an American think tank, also believes that although Israel privately still attaches importance to pressure from the United States, if it gives up the attack on Rafah, it will mean letting go of the four Hamas battalions stationed in Rafah, and Leaving more than 100 detainees in the hands of Hamas. This is unacceptable to Israel and will also lead to the breakdown of Netanyahu's ruling coalition.
The outside world has noticed that Israel is currently "fighting and talking at the same time."
On the other hand, Israel is increasing its "limited operations" against Rafah.
After the Israeli war cabinet unanimously decided to continue operations in Rafah on May 6, Israeli tanks drove into the Rafah port that night, and Israeli ground troops took control of the Gaza Strip side of the port. This is the first time since the Israeli army withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005 that it has completely controlled access to and from the Gaza Strip.
From the 7th to the 8th, the Israeli army bombed Rafah intensively and carried out air strikes on about 100 specific targets, killing at least 30 Palestinian armed personnel.
But on the other hand, Israel is still participating in ceasefire negotiations.
After Hamas announced on the 6th that it agreed to the Gaza ceasefire proposal proposed by the mediator, Israel still sent a delegation to Cairo for negotiations, although it said that the relevant conditions were far from its requirements. This means that although the prospects for negotiations are unclear, everyone has returned to the negotiating table again.
In this regard, Liu Zhongmin said that the latest trends show that Israel is advancing both diplomacy and military affairs at the same time. In response to increasing international pressure, including from the United States, Israel has not completely closed its negotiating channels with Hamas.
However, Liu Zhongmin believes that judging from the current progress, Israel and Hamas are still "speaking their own words" in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. Although Hamas has not made the end of the war a prerequisite for the first phase of the ceasefire plan, it still hopes to completely end the conflict and release the hostages after the Israeli army completely withdraws from Gaza. Israel insisted on releasing the hostages first and a phased ceasefire, avoiding the use of the term "comprehensive ceasefire."
"This fully reflects that the two sides still have serious differences on the ceasefire issue. A ceasefire agreement may still be reached, but I am afraid it will only be a phased and partial ceasefire." Liu Zhongmin said.
Regarding the future direction of this round of conflict in Gaza, Liu Zhongmin believes that neither the ceasefire negotiations nor Israel's potential military operations in Rafah can be solved overnight by "cutting the mess with a quick knife."
From a military perspective, Rafah's "last battle" will be a severe test for both warring parties. Israel needs to weigh how to avoid large-scale civilian casualties while achieving its goal of eliminating Hamas. Hamas needs to preserve its strength and avoid catastrophe. From a diplomatic perspective, how to reach a ceasefire agreement, who will govern Gaza after the war, and how to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli issue in the future are also difficult problems.
Liu Zhongmin believes that future conflicts may present a situation where military struggles coexist with political and diplomatic struggles. It is expected that the two sides will continue to stalemate and procrastinate, fight on and off, and negotiate while fighting.
