How will it affect the "climate" of China US relations?, Depth | Biden's Special Envoy on Climate Issues Will Visit China | Kerry | Biden's Special Envoy on Climate Issues Will Visit China

In recent times, the high level diplomacy between China and the United States has not decreased and continues to attract attention.

Following in the footsteps of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Finance Yellen, US President's Special Envoy for Climate Issues Kerry is also about to embark on a trip to China, becoming the third senior official of the Biden administration to visit China within a month.

As agreed by both China and the United States, Kerry will visit China from July 16th to 19th, and both sides will exchange in-depth views on cooperation in addressing climate change.

Climate change has always been regarded as an area of great potential for cooperation between China and the United States. Can Kerry's visit promote the achievement of cooperation between the two sides?

At the same time, as high-level visits between China and the United States unfold, the tense relationship between the two countries seems to have eased. What impact will the visit of the US climate envoy have on the "climate" of China US relations?

Visiting China has dual significance

Like Antony Blinken and Yellen, Kerry's visit to China was also postponed.

Last August, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Pelosi insisted on visiting Taiwan despite strong opposition from China, and China subsequently suspended bilateral climate change talks with the United States. The "airship incident" in February this year was once again rampant, breaking the high-level exchange plan between China and the United States.

Now, with Antony Blinken and Yellen's successive visits to China and the implementation of the consensus of the Bali meeting between the Chinese and US dollar leaders, Kerry's visit is also considered to be a natural outcome. Meanwhile, this will also be Kerry's third visit to China during his tenure.

"We need sincere cooperation," Kerry said in a media interview last week when he mentioned his upcoming visit to China. "China and the United States are the world's two largest economies and also the two largest emitters. We have a special responsibility to seek consensus."

Analysts believe that Kerry's visit has dual significance in promoting global climate governance and stabilizing China US relations.

In terms of global climate governance, Chen Ying, Deputy Director and Researcher of the Center for Sustainable Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that currently, the world is facing an exceptionally severe challenge of climate change. As two major countries involved in global climate governance, China and the United States play an irreplaceable role. Nowadays, the resumption of climate change consultations between China and the United States, which have been interrupted for a year, undoubtedly receives high attention from the international community, and we hope that the two countries can achieve cooperation results in the field of climate.

Just as Kerry is about to visit China, many countries around the world, including China and the United States, are entering a "high fever" mode.

According to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, last week was the hottest on record globally due to the combined effects of climate change and the early El Ni ñ o phenomenon, with the global average temperature reaching three new highs.

Axios website and Reuters commented that the United States and China are the world's two largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters, and their actions will help achieve global climate goals, which is crucial for the international community's efforts to avoid the severe impact of climate change.

As for the relationship between China and the United States, it is widely believed that the resumption of climate change consultations between the two countries will help to further promote the stabilization of the relationship.

Tom Woodruff, Senior Researcher at the Policy Research Institute of the Asian Association, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine that cooperation on climate issues can not only help save the Earth, but also serve as a strategic barrier to help save US China relations from derailment.

Chen Ying stated that climate change plays a very unique and important role in the relationship between China and the United States. Like economy and trade, it has also been known as the "ballast" and "adhesive" of the relationship, and is seen as an area where both sides have common interests and can deepen cooperation. At present, climate issues may play a role in breaking the ice in the early stages of bilateral relations.

Da Wei, Director of the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University, believes that although climate change cannot bear the overall situation of China US relations, it can inject positive energy into China US relations and is also considered a promising area for achieving results in China US relations. In this sense, Kerry's visit to China and the resumption of climate change negotiations between the two sides have indeed sent a positive signal.

What key issues are focused on?

According to the US State Department, during Kerry's visit to China, he will engage with China to address the climate crisis, strengthen the implementation and enhancement of goals, and promote the successful convening of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Chen Ying believes that an important highlight of Kerry's visit is that China and the United States are expected to have in-depth communication on some key climate issues, in preparation for the United Nations Climate Conference to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates later this year.

These key issues are expected to cover several major themes of concern at the Dubai Climate Conference, including reviewing progress in emissions reduction, advancing adaptation goals, evaluating funding implementation, and exploring the issue of fair transition in the process of green and low-carbon transformation.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that in May, during an interview with US media, Kerry "predicted" three major issues of concern during his visit to China: China's implementation of methane emission reduction plans, how China will gradually rid itself of coal, and China US cooperation to solve the problem of deforestation.

Analysts believe that Kerry's visit may involve more discussions with China on how to address the methane issue.

Chen Ying stated that controlling and reducing methane emissions has a positive impact on global temperature control and is also an area of great concern for both China and the United States. At the 2021 Glasgow Climate Conference, China and the United States issued a joint declaration, planning to accelerate action in the key decade from 2021 to 2030, to cooperate in controlling methane emissions, eliminating global illegal deforestation, and promoting clean energy.

"Kerry's visit to China this time may discuss how to implement this declaration, including how to restart the working group promised in the declaration, and communicate some information with China." Chen Ying said.

Can you pick the "summer fruit"?

Compared to high-intensity topics such as politics, military, and security, climate issues appear relatively "mild" and are considered a topic with common language, dialogue momentum, and cooperation potential between China and the United States. For example, China and the United States have jointly promoted the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, which is seen as a breakthrough in climate governance.

The outside world is highly concerned about whether Kerry's trip to China, after being delayed, can quickly make up for the climate "homework" that has fallen, so that both sides can harvest some "summer fruits".

At present, public expectations are inconsistent.

The Axios website in the United States cites expert opinions that Kerry's visit to China is expected to open the door to a new round of climate cooperation between China and the United States, and achieve certain substantive results.

But there are also views that it may not be realistic to expect both sides to issue a joint statement or achieve breakthroughs during this visit.

Da Wei and Chen Ying both hold a cautious attitude. Dawei believes that the more positive significance of Kerry's visit than achieving concrete results is to initiate the interrupted China US climate consultation process. "Whether substantial results can be achieved depends on the progress of the discussions at the working group level between the two sides, which cannot be achieved with just one visit by Kerry," said Dawei.

Chen Ying stated that since the first Bali meeting between China and the United States last year, officials responsible for climate affairs between China and the United States have had contact, but only in multilateral occasions such as the United Nations Climate Conference or video conferences. This time, Kerry's visit to China officially resumes bilateral climate change negotiations, which has strong symbolic significance.

So, can China US climate cooperation gain a long-awaited opportunity due to Kerry's visit to China?

Dawei stated that the Biden administration attaches great importance to the climate agenda, and China is also very concerned about climate and environmental issues. There is indeed a need for cooperation between the two countries. Moreover, with the easing of tensions between the two countries, there is also a potential opportunity for cooperation. However, it cannot be denied that climate cooperation between China and the United States still faces obstacles. In addition to being influenced by Sino US relations, climate issues are also politicized and securitized, and also involve competition in industries such as new energy. In short, climate change cooperation cannot be isolated.

In Chen Ying's view, cooperation in the field of climate will still be constrained by the overall direction of China US relations. Especially the US needs to integrate words and actions, and cannot set green barriers while talking about cooperation, while ignoring China's contribution and achievements in emissions reduction, and blindly pressure China to make unrealistic commitments. This is not conducive to sincere cooperation between China and the US in the field of climate.

As previously stated by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, climate change is a global challenge that requires joint efforts from all countries to address. I hope that the United States and China can move towards each other and create favorable conditions and atmosphere for climate cooperation between China and the United States.

How long can the window of opportunity open?

Some critics said that although the recent successive visits of senior U.S. officials to China have not made substantive breakthroughs, the face-to-face communication between China and the United States, which was interrupted by the COVID-19 epidemic and tensions, is recovering, especially the "window of opportunity" to stabilize China US relations has been opened.

So, how long can this "window of opportunity" open?

Da Wei believes that after the ministerial level visit, if all levels of work between China and the United States can continue to advance dialogue, then the "window of opportunity" is expected to continue to open at least for this year. However, there are still uncertainties and even uncontrollable factors in the prospects of China US relations, such as domestic political changes and sudden crisis events in the United States.

As is well known, after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China took eight countermeasures, including "three cancellations" and "five suspensions". Suspending climate change talks between China and the United States is one of them. Other activities that have been suspended include military, security, drug control, judicial cooperation or meetings.

Now, with the resumption of high-level dialogue in areas such as diplomacy, economy, and climate, is it possible to resume high-level talks in other important areas, such as military and security?

Regarding this, Dawei believes that the Biden administration's strategy towards China, also known as strategic competition, has a dual nature, encompassing both the competitive and stable aspects. Since the second half of last year, its strategy towards China has gradually entered a stable phase while continuing to promote competition. However, there is still some difficulty in restoring military exchanges. The dialogue between the two militaries of China and the United States is of great significance for the return of Sino US relations to the right track, but the prerequisite is that the United States must correct its erroneous practices as soon as possible and create conditions for the resumption of military exchanges and dialogue.