Why is Israel still bombing Rafah? ,depth|Hamas agrees to ceasefire proposal in Palestinian-Israeli conflict|Dinglong|depth|Hamas

Release time:May 07, 2024 16:27 PM

The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement announced on the 6th that it agreed to the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip proposed by the mediators. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated on the same day that although Hamas's proposal is far from Israel's "core demands", Israel will send a high-level delegation to Egypt. Meanwhile, the Israeli war cabinet decided to continue operations in Rafah. Why is Israel “fighting and talking at the same time”? Can a ceasefire be achieved in the Gaza Strip?

As a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, Hamas and Israel refuse to negotiate face-to-face, with Egypt and Qatar "passing the message" in the middle. Negotiations aimed at a ceasefire and the release of detainees have made little progress in recent months.

The Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on the 4th to launch a new round of consultations with mediators such as Egypt and Qatar. Hamas issued a statement on the 5th saying that this round of negotiations has ended and the delegation has responded to the mediator's proposal. Subsequently, the Hamas delegation left Egypt on the night of the 5th and returned to its office in Qatar for further consultations with the leadership.

Hamas issued a statement on the 6th, announcing its agreement with the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip proposed by the mediators. The statement said that Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh informed Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed and Egyptian General Intelligence Director Abbas Kamal of the decision by phone that day.

Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, noted that the ceasefire plan agreed to by Hamas will be implemented in three phases.

According to the information currently available to the outside world, the first phase will last for 42 days, during which Hamas will release 33 detained Israelis, and Israel will release many imprisoned Palestinians. At the same time, Israel will withdraw some troops from Gaza and allow Palestinians to move freely from southern to northern Gaza.

The second phase, also lasting 42 days, aims to restore "sustainable calm" in Gaza. It is reported that Hamas and Israel have agreed not to discuss the concept of a "lasting ceasefire". At the same time, most Israeli troops will withdraw from Gaza, Hamas will release some Israeli reservists and soldiers, and Israel will continue to release imprisoned Palestinians.

The third phase is more distant and involves the exchange of all detained persons, including the remains of the deceased, and the reconstruction of Gaza under the supervision of Qatar, Egypt and the United Nations.

"This plan is more beneficial to Hamas and is expected to preserve the organization's vitality. Hamas accepted it decisively," Ding Long said. In addition, the reason why Hamas nodded may also be related to Israel's recent threat to attack Rafah. "This plan is expected to avoid large-scale casualties in Rafah under the Israeli offensive."

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari also issued a statement on the 6th, saying that Hamas accepted the ceasefire proposal mediated by Egypt. Israel is reviewing every aspect of the proposal very carefully and is striving to advance relevant negotiations and "every possibility" of the release of the detained persons. At the same time, the Israeli military will continue its military operations in the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office also issued a statement saying that although Hamas's proposal is far from Israel's "core demands," Israel will send a high-level delegation to Egypt to "maximize the possibility of reaching an agreement acceptable to Israel." ".

A Hamas delegation has reportedly traveled to Cairo to study the implementation of Egypt's proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza. At the same time, Egypt has invited an Israeli delegation to Cairo to complete negotiations, and a team composed of mid-level Israeli officials is about to set off.

At this point, Israel's attitude towards negotiations seems to have changed significantly. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on the 5th that Israel is willing to exchange a short ceasefire for Hamas to release detainees; however, Hamas has a stubborn stance and insists on Israel's ceasefire and withdrawal of troops. "Israel cannot accept this."

In Ding Long's view, Israel has not yet expressed its position on the ceasefire plan, but it has sent a delegation to Cairo, which shows that Israel is still delaying. In addition, the Israeli delegation seems to be under pressure from domestic and foreign public opinion. Currently, the families of those detained in Israel and most of the people are calling for a ceasefire.

"Once negotiations fail, the main parties are responsible. After Hamas agreed, the ball came to Israel's side and had to respond." Ding Long said.

At the same time, the Israeli government is also facing pressure from the international community for a ceasefire. Following U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director Burns is mediating in the Middle East. After participating in the Cairo negotiations, Burns went to Qatar for an emergency meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed "with the purpose of exerting maximum pressure on Israel and Hamas to avoid the collapse of the negotiations."

Ding Long said that Burns and other senior officials went to the Middle East to mediate, which shows that the United States is paying attention to the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has caused ripples on American campuses and has a major impact on U.S. President Joe Biden's re-election bid. As the U.S. election campaign becomes increasingly fierce, the Biden administration hopes that the situation will cool down as soon as possible. "However, there is a question mark as to whether Netanyahu will listen to the United States."

Although Israel's negotiating position has softened, Dinglong pointed out that the ceasefire plan accepted by Hamas is not so easy for Israel to accept. For some time, Israel's operational goal has been not only to free detainees, but also to eliminate Hamas.

“If we give up on this goal, all our previous efforts will be wasted,” Ding Long said. Far-right figures in Israel's cabinet have made clear their opposition. If Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire plan, it may lead to the dissolution of the cabinet. Then came the general election, and Netanyahu's political life was in danger. In addition, there are recent reports that the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue an arrest warrant for senior Israeli officials on suspicion of war crimes in the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, which has put Netanyahu under tremendous pressure.

"Therefore, Netanyahu can only delay the war." Ding Long said. This can also explain why Israel provoked Iran last month to open a second front in the context of the difficulty of advancing the Rafah operation.

However, Netanyahu is facing a test due to factors such as ceasefire calls and political considerations. Ding Long said he was faced with two options - one was to continue fighting to destroy Hamas; the other was to take the remaining detainees home. "None of this is a perfect option for Netanyahu. But he has to choose between war and peace."

Ding Long predicts that there may be several possible directions for the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. The first is to take into account Israel's opinions and modify the ceasefire plan, but this may lead to opposition from Hamas. Therefore, the negotiation process may still be delayed.

Second, considering the complexity of conflict ceasefires, Israel may temporarily accept the ceasefire plan and then find excuses to resume operations in the future, which is a "delay strategy." By then, with the detainees returning home, Netanyahu may be able to temporarily overcome the crisis.

"The Cairo negotiations are seen as the last chance, and Israel is unlikely to completely reject this ceasefire plan." Ding Long said.

At present, there seems to be hope for ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, but Israel's military operations have not stopped.

After Hamas announced on the evening of the 6th that it agreed to the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip put forward by the mediators, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on the evening of the 6th, saying that the war cabinet unanimously decided to continue operations in the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip to target Hamas. Apply military pressure to promote the release of Israeli detainees and achieve other operational objectives. According to a report by the Palestinian News Agency on the 7th, the Israeli army began intensive bombing of Rafah in the early morning of the same day, causing at least 20 deaths so far.

Why does Israel insist on attacking Rafah? Dinglong said that on the one hand, Israel has made less progress than expected in weakening Hamas's effective strength in recent months. Judging from the information available to the outside world, Hamas has not suffered any "loss of strength" in terms of personnel and armaments. On the other hand, from Israel's perspective, Hamas' military forces have been massed in Rafah.

Therefore, for Netanyahu and the Israeli war cabinet, attacking Rafah can delay the war and thus extend their political lifeline. It is also expected to deal a heavy blow to Hamas.

However, Israel's attack on Rafah was generally opposed by the international community. Currently, more than 1.5 million Palestinian civilians have taken refuge in Rafah. The international community is worried that the Israeli army's ground war against Rafah will inevitably cause a large number of civilian casualties. In addition, Rafah borders Egypt and is the main channel for international humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip.

Ding Long noticed that Israel was almost isolated in its attack on Rafah. There have been reports recently that the U.S. government has suspended the shipment of U.S.-made ammunition to Israel. This is the first time that the United States has stopped delivering weapons to the Israeli military since a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out on October 7 last year. "This is a strong signal."

In Dinglong's view, Israel is weighing the opposition of international public opinion against the benefits of attacking Rafah. A battle with Rafa seems inevitable, but the question is how to fight it. At present, the Israel Defense Forces has asked residents in eastern Rafah to evacuate to the "humanitarian zone" as soon as possible. An Israeli army spokesman said that day that about 100,000 people were being evacuated from eastern Rafah.

According to a report by Israel's "New News" using government officials as sources, Israel's decision to attack Rafah may be revoked if Hamas accepts an agreement on the release of detainees.

Ding Long said that the negotiations between Hamas and Israel are a game process, and Israel "negotiates while fighting" in order to obtain a ceasefire plan that is beneficial to it.

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