How will Russia fight back? , Second Look | The United States is frantically testing its bottom line

Ukraine's recent attack on Sevastopol in Crimea has once again drawn people's attention to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. The weapon used in the attack, which resulted in more than 150 casualties, including several children, was the Army Tactical Missile System aided by the United States. Just a few days ago, the United States lifted the ban again, claiming that it would allow Ukraine to use US-aided weapons to attack "anywhere" in Russia from Kharkiv to where the Russian army launched an attack. What kind of weapon is ATACMS that Ukraine frequently uses? What does the continuous loosening of the US's weapons aid to Ukraine mean? How will Russia counterattack?

"The beach was not the chosen target." The Pentagon's recent response to Russia's accusation that the Ukrainian military launched a missile attack on the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol has changed, from the initial "no comment" to now directly throwing the blame on Ukraine - Ukraine "is independent in choosing military targets." The United States claims that these missiles are aimed at military targets on the Crimean Peninsula, but it does not comment on the source of these weapons, neither admitting nor denying. Earlier, on June 23, Moscow time, foreign media reported that the Ukrainian army used M-270B rocket launchers to launch multiple ATACMS missiles equipped with cluster warheads from the direction of Odessa to attack Crimea. One of them deviated from the target and exploded over the Sevastopol beach, causing a large number of civilian casualties.

This incident caused the Russian side to be furious, and it immediately pointed the finger at the United States and strongly stated that it would respond. In the view of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the United States should bear "direct responsibility". These ATACMS tactical missiles were not only provided by the United States, but also their flight mission data needed support from the United States. Ukraine does not have the navigation and positioning technology capabilities, and the flight parameters of the missiles must be set by American experts based on information from American spy satellites.

Is ATACMS a "weapon from the 1980s"?

This is not the first time that the Ukrainian army has used the US-aided ATACMS to launch an attack. According to reports, as early as April this year, the Ukrainian army used the long-range Army Tactical Missile System to attack Russian military targets in Crimea. Sullivan made it clear that the United States has provided Ukraine with some long-range missiles. As one of the weapons that the Ukrainian army has always been eager to obtain, the long-range ATACMS has doubled the strike distance of the medium-range, can strike multiple targets in the rear of Russian-controlled areas, and can effectively make up for the shortcomings of insufficient air firepower. According to Wang Siyu, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Countries of Shanghai International Studies University, ATACMS was designed by the US defense company Lingte Cowart and manufactured by Lockheed Martin, with a range of up to 300 kilometers. This missile can be launched from the tracked M270 multiple rocket launcher system or the high-mobility rocket launcher system "HIMARS". Although it is a weapon that was finalized in 1986, the United States has upgraded the ammunition many times, including updating the navigation system, thrusters and warheads. The United States first delivered ATACMS to Ukraine in October 2023. It was not until February 2024 that the White House confirmed that it would provide Ukraine with extended-range missiles, allowing Ukraine to attack Russian military targets at a longer distance. The missiles delivered after 2024 basically have a range and strike capability of 300 kilometers. The ATACMS in service in Ukraine covers almost all warhead models, including the deadly cluster munitions used in this explosion, which are still lethal after being intercepted.

For Sevastopol, its frequent attacks are inseparable from its strategic location. Sevastopol is located in the southwest of Crimea. It is the capital and largest city of the Crimea region and the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Since last year, the Ukrainian army has been trying to attack Russia's air defense and radar systems in Crimea and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. For example, blinding the sensors and air defense systems on the western coast will make it easier for Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles to penetrate. The weapons used by the Ukrainian army to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in September last year were the "Storm Shadow" missiles and unmanned speedboats provided by the United Kingdom. In addition, the Ukrainian army has also launched cruise missiles to attack the Sevastopol shipyard.

As the conflict drags on, the US has been loosening its arms supply to Ukraine at an ever-increasing pace. As for the restrictions on attacks on Russian territory, the restrictions have been expanded from last month's Kharkiv direction to this month's "anywhere," no longer limited to Russian border areas bordering Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, such as Belgorod Oblast.

"Ukraine decides how to use its weapons." The United States has made its clear attitude public regarding Russia's accusation. The United States claims that the focus of loosening restrictions is to enhance Ukraine's ability to counterattack when attacked. "Russian troops fired across the border, and Ukraine used weapons and ammunition provided by the United States to fight back against those ground troops." This is "self-defense," and it is "reasonable" for Ukraine to have this capability. According to Jack Sullivan, the U.S. President's National Security Advisor, if the Russian army attacks Sumy Oblast west of Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine can use U.S.-aided weapons to attack the bordering area of ​​Sumy Oblast, namely Russia's Kursk Oblast. If Russian aircraft are about to cross the border from Russian airspace to attack Ukraine, Ukraine can use its air defense system to fire at them. Previously, in order to curb the Russian offensive in the direction of Kharkiv, the United States said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-aided weapons only in the direction of Kharkiv for limited cross-border strikes. However, until now, the United States has not claimed that it would allow long-range strikes deep into Russian territory.

Although Russia has repeatedly warned the West and Ukraine that the consequences of an attack on Russia's homeland would be serious, and that Russia even has the right to use nuclear weapons. But these harsh words seem to be of no help, giving the United States the courage to continue playing with fire and testing wildly. The United States' continuous loosening of restrictions has not been met with a strong counterattack from Russia. Does this mean that the United States is hinting that Ukraine does not have to tie its hands, but must be determined and bold to do it? Will there be more and more similar attacks? How will Russia respond? Wang Siyu said that under such circumstances, I am afraid that such attacks will be more frequent, more blatant, and more direct in the future. Given that Ukraine has already carried out cross-border strikes on military targets in Kursk and Belgorod Oblast on the Russian border, and that Russia is still continuing to attack the Ukrainian border town of Kharkiv, it is not ruled out that Ukraine will use Western weapons to directly attack these important military targets or infrastructure involving logistics support in the Russian-Ukrainian border area.

Wang Siyu said that in this case, Russia can actually take very few countermeasures, or very limited ones, because Russia currently has no means or tools to both upgrade deterrence and control risks. Russia claims to punish the Western responsible countries, but it is difficult to imagine a direct military attack, because attacking any NATO member will lead to NATO invoking its Article 5 for collective defense or retaliation. Next, in retaliation, Russia can only use the same conventional long-range attack means to attack large and medium-sized cities in Ukraine. Apart from this, there may be no better way at present.