Authoritative interpretation is here. The market feedback after the implementation of the "Shanghai Nine Measures" is positive! Nine focus questions

Shanghai's new real estate policy, the "Nine Measures for Shanghai", was officially implemented on May 28 and has attracted great attention from all parties in the market. How has the market responded to the "Nine Measures for Shanghai" after more than ten days? Will Shanghai continue to introduce adjustment and optimization policies in the short term? What will happen to the Shanghai property market in the future?

With these key issues of concern to the citizens, the reporter interviewed relevant persons in charge from the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission, Municipal Housing Management Bureau, Municipal Planning and Resources Bureau, Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China, Municipal Provident Fund Management Center, some real estate development company leaders, intermediary agency leaders, as well as experts and scholars.

Judging from feedback from all parties, the “Nine Measures of Shanghai” reflect the holistic, systematic and comprehensive nature of policy optimization. The policy strength is also relatively strong, exceeding the expectations of all parties.

The reporter visited a number of market players and learned that since the introduction of the new policy, the policy effects have gradually emerged, with an increase in visits and transaction volume for first-hand housing, a significant increase in viewings and transaction volume for second-hand housing, and overall stable transaction prices.

Data shows that during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai was 418 units, an increase of 171% over the average daily transaction volume during this year's May Day holiday; the average daily transaction volume in the two days after the festival was 810 units, returning to the transaction level one week after the new policy was introduced.

"In general, the 'Nine Measures of Shanghai' have taken comprehensive considerations to guide reasonable housing demand. In the near future, Shanghai will not make major policy adjustments again." Wan Yong, director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that "from the comprehensive factors of Shanghai's social and economic development and urban planning and construction, we are very confident in the steady development of Shanghai's real estate market and reasonable improvements in the housing and people's livelihood areas."

Question 1: What was the process of issuing the "Shanghai Nine Measures"? What are the characteristics of the overall policy measures? How strong is the policy?

A relevant person in charge of the Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority said that the adjustment and optimization of policies is a package of policy measures formed after relevant departments conducted in-depth analysis and assessment of market trends, and widely listened to the opinions and suggestions of experts, scholars, market players and other parties. On this basis, comprehensive consideration was taken.

"After the policy was released, people generally reflected that the policy optimization reflected the integrity and systematization, and the policy strength was also relatively large." The above-mentioned person in charge said. For example, in terms of housing purchase restriction policy, based on serving the housing security and promoting the balance between work and residence, the number of years for non-Shanghai residents to pay social security for purchasing houses was shortened, the purchase area was expanded, the number of houses for multi-child families was increased, and enterprises were supported to purchase houses for employees to rent.

In terms of housing credit policy, after this adjustment and optimization, the lower limit of personal housing loan interest rates has been reduced to below 4%; in terms of the minimum down payment ratio, the first home loan has been reduced to 20%, meeting reasonable housing loan needs.

In terms of housing provident fund policy, the maximum loan amount for residents has increased by about 30%. The maximum provident fund loan amount for a family buying its first home is 1.6 million yuan. The policy remains unchanged and the amount can be increased by 20% to a maximum of 1.92 million yuan for families with many children.

Question 2: What are the main considerations for Shanghai to optimize and adjust its real estate market policies and measures?

The relevant person in charge of the Shanghai Housing Administration Bureau said that this policy optimization mainly reflects three considerations:

First, comprehensive measures. Coordinate supply and demand to promote the overall balance of market supply and demand; coordinate market and security, comprehensively consider total supply and total demand, promote the coordinated development of the housing market and housing security systems by promoting both rental and purchase; coordinate incremental and existing housing, focus on improving housing quality, encourage the construction of good houses, accelerate the promotion of urban renewal such as the transformation of "two old and one village", and improve living conditions through multiple channels.

Second, implement policies in a classified manner. On the supply side, give full play to the leading role of the city master plan, optimize land supply in line with market demand, reasonably grasp the planning sequence and development rhythm and structure according to regional infrastructure, public facilities, industrial development, etc., and achieve high-quality land supply; better meet the demand for improved housing, optimize the unit structure, increase the area standard of small and medium-sized units, and reduce the proportion of small and medium-sized units in a differentiated manner. On the demand side, based on serving and settling down, according to the characteristics of the regional market, differentiate and optimize the housing purchase restriction policy by region, shorten the number of years that non-Shanghai residents need to pay social security or personal tax to buy a house, and expand the housing purchase area for talents and non-Shanghai singles in key areas. On the credit side, in order to promote the balance between work and residence in key areas, differentiated housing credit policies will continue to be implemented in new towns and areas such as the north-south transition.

Third, precise policy implementation. Support the reasonable housing needs of families with multiple children. On the basis of purchasing an additional house, they can enjoy the first housing credit policy to reduce the interest burden of house purchase. Support families with housing difficulties to improve their living conditions. For eligible "old for new" resident families, appropriate subsidies for transitional rental, renovation and moving during the housing replacement period will be given. Adhere to demand orientation, improve the housing security system by combining increase and storage, explore the acquisition and bulk leasing of suitable housing sources through state-owned platform companies and other entities, and optimize the supply of housing security. Support enterprises to solve the housing problems of employees through multiple channels. For enterprises that purchase small-sized second-hand houses for employees to rent, there is no limit on the number of houses purchased. Optimize the scope of the purchase restriction policy, cancel the provisions on the combined calculation of the number of houses for divorced purchases, adjust the provisions on housing donation, and the donated houses will no longer be counted in the number of houses owned by the donor.

Question 3: How has the market reacted since the implementation of the "Nine Measures for Shanghai"? Has the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses increased? Has the housing price rebounded?

The reporter visited a number of market players and learned that since the introduction of the new policy, the policy effect has gradually emerged, transaction activity has increased significantly, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand houses has increased, the transaction level during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday was significantly higher than that during the May Day holiday, and the transaction price was generally stable.

According to feedback from real estate companies interviewed by reporters, there have been positive changes in the number of inquiries and visits to new housing projects on sale.

Overall, from May 28 to June 10, the subscription of first-hand houses in Shanghai was generally stable. A total of 10 real estate projects in the city completed subscription, and the subscription level was slightly higher than the average level of the same sector. The number of visits to first-hand housing projects increased significantly, and the number of reservations for some follow-up projects with a certain market popularity increased significantly. The transaction volume increased. From May 28 to June 10, the average daily transaction volume of first-hand housing was 20,000 square meters, an increase of 42% over the average daily transaction volume from May 1 to 27. The average daily transaction volume of first-hand housing during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday was 8,200 square meters, an increase of 41% over the average daily transaction volume during this year's "May Day" holiday.

Among specific real estate projects, from May 27 to June 10, the number of visits to the Gemdale Jiafenghui project increased by 30%, and the number of transactions increased by 256%. A total of 80 units have been sold since the new policy was introduced. The number of inquiries and visits to China Enterprise's projects on sale in Shanghai have both shown an upward trend, with new visits increasing by more than 30%, and the number of transactions and subscriptions also increasing month-on-month.

In terms of second-hand housing, June 1 and 8 were two Saturdays after the implementation of the "Nine Measures of Shanghai". The reporter visited many intermediary stores and found that the number of brokers showing houses increased significantly. Data from Lianjia, the largest intermediary agency in Shanghai, showed that from the introduction of the new policy to June 10, the number of consultations increased by about 50% on average per day compared with the previous two months, and the number of showings increased by about 30%. "After the introduction of the new policy, the demand of home buyers was significantly released. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of customer consultations and showings increased by 30% on average per day compared with the daily average before the new policy."

"In terms of second-hand housing, the market reaction is more positive than in previous rounds of policies." A relevant person in charge of Shanghai Pacific Housing said that the change in second-hand housing transactions in the area outside the outer ring road was the most obvious, with the average weekly transaction volume in the two weeks after the new policy increased by 79.58% compared with the average weekly transaction volume in the four weeks before the new policy was introduced. In terms of the housing purchase group, the agency's most transactions were with non-Shanghai residents who benefited from the policy of changing social security from 5 years to 3 years, and families with many children.

Overall, from May 28 to June 10, the transaction volume of Shanghai's second-hand housing market increased significantly, with an average daily transaction volume of 700 units, an increase of 38% over the average daily transaction volume from May 1 to 27; the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday was 418 units, an increase of 171% over the average daily transaction volume during the May Day holiday this year; the average daily transaction volume in the two days after the holiday was 810 units, returning to the transaction level of the week after the new policy was introduced. The transaction price remained stable, and there were few cases of price jumps and price cuts. During this period, the leading indicators of second-hand housing increased significantly, with new purchase commissions increasing by about 45% compared with the week before the policy was introduced, the number of viewings increased by about 30%, and the number of intermediary contracts increased by about 70%.

Question 4: The housing credit policy adjustment this time is quite significant. The lower limits of the interest rates for the first and second personal housing loans have dropped significantly compared to before the adjustment. How much interest expenses can be saved for households? Can the new interest rate policy be applied to personal housing loans that have been accepted by banks but not yet issued?

The reporter learned from the Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China that the new Shanghai personal housing loan policy has made a large adjustment to the lower limit of the personal housing loan interest rate policy, fully benefiting the people. The lower limit of the first set of housing interest rate has been reduced by 35 basis points compared with before the adjustment, and the second set of housing interest rate has been reduced by 35 basis points. Among them, the second set of housing loan interest rates in the Lingang New Area of ​​the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan have dropped more significantly, by 45 basis points. According to the calculation of 1 million yuan loan and 30 years of equal principal and interest, the monthly repayment of the first set of housing loan can be reduced by up to 197.63 yuan, and the total interest expenditure can be reduced by 71,100 yuan.

All banks have fully considered the actual situation of loans in progress. Based on the principle of allowing more home buyers with loans to enjoy the benefits of the new policy, banks will use the loan issuance time as the boundary when implementing the new policy. New personal housing loans issued after May 28 will be implemented in accordance with the new policy. All personal housing loans in progress that have been accepted by banks but not yet issued are eligible for the new policy.

Question 5: After the adjustment of Shanghai Housing Provident Fund policy, the loan amount can be increased to 1.6 million yuan, and the maximum loan amount for families with many children is 1.92 million yuan. What conditions must be met to obtain the full loan amount? Can the amount of Housing Provident Fund loans that have been applied for but not yet issued be increased according to the new policy?

The reporter learned from the Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Management Center that for families of depositors who purchase their first home in Shanghai, the application for the maximum loan amount must meet three conditions at the same time: a family of two or more applying for a loan, and all of them meet the current normal continuous housing provident fund payment conditions for 6 months; calculated based on 30 times the housing provident fund storage balance multiple and 10 times the supplementary provident fund storage balance multiple, the applicant's housing provident fund account storage balance at the time of application must reach 43,400 yuan in total, and the supplementary provident fund account storage balance must reach 30,000 yuan in total, and the maximum loan amount that can be applied for is 1.6 million yuan; a family with multiple children must have a total housing provident fund account storage balance of 52,000 yuan and a total supplementary provident fund account storage balance of 36,000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount that can be applied for is 1.92 million yuan; and the family must have the ability to repay the loan and good credit.

It is reported that the implementation of relevant policies is based on the time of acceptance. Provident Fund loans accepted after May 28 will be implemented in accordance with this policy. For Provident Fund loans that have not yet been issued, if they need to be re-accepted after consultation between the two parties to the housing transaction, they can consult the relevant loan acceptance agency.

Question six: Are there any policy considerations for those who do not have the ability to buy a house or do not meet the conditions to buy a house?

The reporter learned that the "Nine Articles of Shanghai" emphasize the overall coordination of "market and security". It is to be demand-oriented, combine incremental and existing stocks, accelerate the fundraising and construction of affordable housing and affordable rental housing, explore the acquisition and bulk leasing of suitable housing through state-owned platform companies and other entities, and optimize housing security supply.

Industry insiders said that the relevant policies in the "Shanghai Nine Articles" are closer to actual housing needs. In terms of supporting families with housing difficulties to improve their living conditions, the policy proposes to provide appropriate subsidies for transitional rental, renovation and moving during the housing replacement period for eligible "old for new" resident families. For groups that do not have the conditions to buy a house for the time being, the "Shanghai Nine Articles" proposes to support enterprises to buy houses for employees to rent. This is Shanghai's exploration in supporting the diversification of housing needs and is a highlight.

"The 'Nine Measures of Shanghai' is a comprehensive, multi-dimensional policy that not only covers a wide range of people, but also segments housing needs according to their differences. All groups will be able to enjoy the benefits of the new policy in the future," said Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Shanghai Centaline Property.

Question seven, on June 7, Shanghai issued the first batch of commercial housing land transfer announcements after the introduction of the “Nine Measures of Shanghai”. While launching four plots of land, it also clarified the requirements for canceling the 10% upper limit on the premium rate of commercial housing land. How was this considered?

A relevant official from the Shanghai Municipal Planning and Resources Bureau said that, in conjunction with the release of the third batch of commercial housing land transfer announcements this year, clarifying relevant work requirements is a specific measure to further implement the "Nine Articles of Shanghai" on "optimizing the city's land supply."

Starting from this batch, Shanghai has cancelled the 10% upper limit requirement for the premium rate of commercial housing land, and the transaction land price is determined by market-based bidding, further improving the efficiency of market-based allocation of land resources. Before the transfer, the planning and resources, housing and construction, housing management, development and reform, finance, and other departments will establish a comprehensive consultation mechanism to reasonably set the starting price for the transfer. For plots in specific areas with high market popularity, differentiated regulatory measures can be taken after decision-making. When the premium rate exceeds a certain limit, the lottery stage will be entered to guide market players to bid rationally.

During the stage of determining the conditions for land transfer, municipal departments, through comprehensive assessment and consultation mechanisms, differentiated high-quality construction requirements based on the location conditions of the land, market demand and other aspects, and included requirements such as green buildings, ultra-low energy consumption buildings, prefabricated buildings, renewable energy, and BIM technology applications as conditions for land transfer in the land transfer contract, requiring real estate developers to optimize their products and improve the quality of residential construction.

Subsequently, Shanghai will continue to improve the commercial housing land transaction work, further increase the supply of high-quality plots in areas with good location conditions, complete public service facilities, convenient transportation, and strong market demand, and better implement and strengthen urban functions through land development.

Question 8: We have noticed that many cities have recently introduced real estate control policies, many of which are quite strong. Homebuyers are also concerned about whether there will be more powerful policies to support home purchases in the future.

Industry insiders said that at the national level, the general tone of "differentiated policies for different cities" and "one city, one policy" has not changed. Different regions will inevitably present different policy characteristics based on their own actual conditions.

"For Shanghai itself, as the market has stabilized and home buyers have become more rational, some of the tight policy measures taken when the market was overheated have been timely and comprehensively adjusted and optimized this time," said Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute.

Many experts believe that with the implementation of the "Nine Measures of Shanghai", relevant policies at the Shanghai level to support rigid and improvement demands are basically in place in the near future, and the focus in the future will be on digestion and absorption.

"Overall, the 'Nine Measures for Shanghai' are not policies to stimulate the market in the short term, but are based on meeting the diverse and diversified housing needs of citizens. They focus on solving current problems while also looking at long-term development, and adopt comprehensive measures based on the specific conditions of each city to promote the orderly release of reasonable housing demand." said Cui Guangcan, director of the Real Estate and Urban Development Research Center of Shanghai Normal University.

Question 9: The "Shanghai Nine Measures" were introduced not long ago, and it will take time for their impact on the market to be apparent. Some citizens are concerned about whether housing prices have bottomed out. How should we view the trend of the Shanghai real estate market?

According to the observations of many experts, the market feedback after the release of the "Nine Measures for Shanghai" was generally positive, and its long-term effects on the market will gradually become apparent.

"On the one hand, buying a house is a major decision for a family. It takes a period of time for family members to negotiate and make decisions. The replacement group has a certain operation cycle from selling a house to buying a house. On the other hand, the time since the policy was introduced is still short, and it will take some time for the policy to be digested and transmitted to the market, which will be reflected in the subscription rate or the online signing data of second-hand houses." said Gan Chunhui, deputy director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

From the perspective of enterprises, a person from the marketing department of a leading real estate company pointed out that the key to judging the future trend lies in the number and continuity of new customers entering the market after the existing customers in the previous two weeks are gradually released. The strength of this "package" policy is significantly stronger than the two new policies in September and December last year.

A person in charge of a real estate agency said that the policy has freed up a considerable proportion of customer qualifications and revitalized the market, especially for "urgent buyers", which has significantly boosted market confidence. It is expected that the market will gradually improve in June, with prices stabilizing and transaction volume increasing.

Wan Yong emphasized that, in general, considering various comprehensive factors such as Shanghai's social and economic development and urban planning and construction, we are very confident in the steady development of Shanghai's real estate market and the reasonable improvement in the housing and people's livelihood areas.