Is her re-election in July more secure? ,Second Eye | Europe continues to "turn right"

If the rightward shift in the European political spectrum is a trend in recent years, then the European Parliament elections that just concluded recently are a clear example. The results show that the center-right still maintains its lead, but the extreme right is rising rapidly. The obvious rightward shift of the 27 EU member states may affect the European political ecology. What impact will Europe's continued "rightward shift" have on future policy making and legislation? Will the current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is favored by the media, be re-elected in July?

The results of the 10th European Parliament election, which is regarded as a political weathervane, were not unexpected. The centrist parties still dominated the mainstream and maintained the overall majority, and the predicted increase in the far right did not come as expected, but the significant changes in the seats of various party groups made Europe's "rightward shift" once again a hot word in major media.

An important reason for the rightward shift of the European Parliament's political spectrum is that the ruling parties of major European countries have generally performed poorly. However, due to the solid status of the traditional center-left and center-right, it is unlikely that the European political ecology will change dramatically. What impact will the continued "turn to the right" have on Europe? Some analysts pointed out that this does not mean that the far right will be able to make waves immediately, but will seek greater influence in future policy making. After all, the centrist alliance European People's Party group still maintains its position as the largest party group. US media said that the centrists may now need to rely on the support of the right wing, and the far right will take the opportunity to put pressure on them to achieve their own political demands, which will bring greater uncertainty to many controversial issues such as immigration and aid to Ukraine. Reuters said that the rightward shift of the European Parliament may make it more difficult to pass new legislation to address security challenges and the impact of climate change.

As the supervisory, advisory and legislative body of the European Union, the European Parliament is one of the core institutions of the European Union. Yan Xiaoxiao, assistant researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that for a long time, the European Parliament only had the right to consult and make recommendations on legislation. After the Lisbon Treaty came into effect, the European Parliament obtained the power of approval and deliberation in some areas. For example, in economic affairs that belong to the responsibility of the European Commission, the European Parliament can propose the contents of trade or investment agreements signed between the European Union and third parties, and the agreements must ultimately be approved by the European Parliament before they can take effect. In the diplomatic affairs of the European Union, the EU foreign minister needs to consult the European Parliament on a certain proposal, and the final policy content must also reflect the position of the European Parliament. Therefore, due to the conservative and xenophobic tendencies of right-wing political forces, the EU's refugee policy may be further tightened; in terms of economy and trade, a tougher attitude will be adopted, and the trend of using non-technical barriers to protect the EU's internal market will be further strengthened; in international affairs, the EU may behave more conservatively and isolated, such as changing its previous posture as a leader in global climate governance.

After this European election, the personnel arrangements of the European Union have become the focus of attention from all walks of life. The new European Parliament will be held on July 16, when the political groups of various countries will determine the next President of the European Commission after consultation. Since the election results are favorable to her - the European People's Party group will become the largest party, the current President von der Leyen is considered to have an advantage in re-election. Yan Xiaoxiao said that this is because according to the practice within the EU, the candidate for the President of the European Commission should first consider the candidate recommended by the largest political group in the European Parliament. The European People's Party group to which von der Leyen belongs won 186 of the 720 seats, accounting for 25% of the total seats, and von der Leyen is the recommended candidate of the political group. In July, the European Parliament will hold a vote for the President of the European Commission. At that time, von der Leyen needs to win more than half, that is, at least 361 votes, to continue to be elected as the President of the European Commission. Therefore, in theory, she has already won 186 votes, and she only needs to cooperate with other pro-EU political groups to successfully meet the requirement of obtaining half of the votes.

But the problem is that the candidate for the President of the European Commission is ultimately decided by the European Council and the leaders of the member states, and the nomination needs to be recognized by major countries such as France and Germany. Yan Xiaoxiao said that according to the organizational mechanism of the European Union, the European Council is the highest decision-making body of the European Union. It can veto the candidates recommended by the European Parliament and nominate other people. If the European Union is compared to a company, the President of the European Commission is the manager of the company, and the European Council is the board of directors of the company. The board of directors has the right to decide the final candidate for the manager. Therefore, on the issue of whether von der Leyen can be re-elected, as long as the European Council objects, she will lose her candidate status and will not enter the voting stage of the European Parliament. On the issue of recommending candidates, the European Council, composed of the heads of the EU member states, adopts the principle of unanimous consent. If one or more national leaders firmly oppose it, von der Leyen's road to re-election may be difficult to succeed. And her disagreements with the leaders of France and Germany during her term, such as the conflict with French President Macron, have become public.

It is reported that von der Leyen's management style of the European Commission over the past five years has once attracted public criticism from Macron. In April this year, the media broke the news that "Macron hopes von der Leyen will be replaced", saying that the French president was discussing possible candidates with other EU leaders at the time. Macron and German Chancellor Scholz and others may not support von der Leyen's re-election. Germany and France prefer Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank and an Italian.