What to talk about?, G7 leaders meet again, in-depth | "Difficult times" include | Zuo Xi | G7
The annual summit of the Group of Seven leaders will be held in Italy from June 13 to 15. Analysts pointed out that many G7 members are facing difficulties at home and abroad, and they urgently need to "reduce the burden" at the international level and "add points" at the domestic level. But at the same time, as the G7 once again wields a big stick against Russia, the relationship between the two sides will further deteriorate.
The G7 is composed of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada. Italy has assumed the rotating presidency since January 1 this year and will arrange a series of related activities in a year, the most important of which is the leaders' summit.
As the host country, Italy admitted that this is "a particularly challenging moment on the international stage." Another Italian government source said that this is "a particularly difficult moment."
First, the Ukrainian crisis has entered its third year, and the situation on the battlefield remains difficult to determine, with Ukrainian President Zelensky repeatedly urging the West to provide more assistance.
Secondly, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has entered its ninth month, and it remains to be seen when the Gaza Strip will be able to usher in sustainable peace.
Furthermore, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France will all face elections in the coming weeks or months, and this may even be the last time that U.S. President Biden and British Prime Minister Sunak attend the G7 summit. Polls also show that the leaders of Canada and Japan have low support at home.
In contrast, Italian Prime Minister Meroni has just won good results in the European Parliament elections and is regarded as the leader with the most stable position within the G7. She will also host the G7 summit in this manner.
"I am proud that this country emerges as the strongest government in the G7 and in Europe," Meroni said after the results of the European Parliament elections.
Although she is the leader of a far-right party, Meroni insists on taking a centrist approach, especially in foreign policy. She is currently seen as a bridge of communication between the European far right and the center right, as well as a bridge of transatlantic cooperation.
In addition, reports have pointed out that the G7 is a group with a strong political atmosphere, but its influence in the economic field is no longer as strong as before. Without China's participation, the group's influence on the international stage has raised questions.
Talking about the background of this summit, Zuo Xiying, professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, said that many G7 members are facing relatively big difficulties at home and abroad.
At the international level, the United States faces enormous challenges in both Europe and the Middle East.
Regarding the Ukrainian crisis, in April this year, US President Biden signed a package of bills, including nearly $61 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine. However, this cannot fundamentally solve the shortage of personnel and munitions faced by Ukraine on the battlefield.
In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel and its supporter the United States have been under pressure from the international community to cease fire and end the war for some time. With the adoption of a ceasefire resolution by the Security Council on June 10, the US attitude has changed.
Domestically, Biden is in a stalemate with his old rival Trump, and it is difficult for him to rest easy if he wants to be re-elected. France and Germany are facing the dilemma of the rise of extreme right-wing forces at home. The UK will also usher in a somewhat sudden general election.
"Most of the G7 members are having troubles at home right now," Zuo Xiying said. These countries are in urgent need of "lightening their burden" at the international level and "adding points" at the domestic level.
According to the agenda, the summit will be held from June 13 to 15 at Borgo Egnazia, a traditional country-style luxury hotel in southern Italy.
On the evening of June 13, Italian President Mattarella planned to hold a dinner at the Swabian Castle in the south to welcome the G7 leaders.
On the evening of June 14, all guests are invited to dinner at Borgo Egnazia, where there will also be a short artistic performance.
Security for the summit is extremely tight, the venue is not easily disturbed by protesters and journalists, and the media center is located in Bari, about 60 kilometers away.
On the schedule, although the summit is planned to last for three days, the specific meeting is expected to end on the 14th, and Ukrainian President Zelensky and other leaders will then attend the Ukrainian Peace Summit in Switzerland on the 15th.
As for participants, in addition to the leaders of the seven countries, the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission and representatives of some international organizations were also invited to attend as usual, including UN Secretary-General Guterres and representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
It is worth noting that Italy has also specially invited about 12 leaders of external countries, including Ukraine, Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Kenya, Algeria, Mauritania and the African Union, who are expected to attend the G7 "External Relations Meeting" on the 14th.
If nothing unexpected happens, this will be the first overseas visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa after their domestic elections. At the same time, there are reports that the Saudi crown prince temporarily canceled his plan to attend the summit for unknown reasons.
Zuo Xiying noticed that the selection of these guests was quite targeted - many of them were members of the BRICS and G20. This year, Brazil also served as the rotating chair of the G20.
Some commentators said the unusual guest list reflected Italy's desire to broaden the G7's horizons.
Zuo Xiying also said that this reflects the G7's consideration of seeking engagement with the "Global South".
"Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the 'Global South' has increasingly attracted the attention of the United States and the West as an independent force on the international stage." Zuo Xiying said that it has posed a huge challenge to the United States' previous monopoly on discourse and narrative around the world.
According to official introduction, the summit will have six working meetings, covering Africa, climate change and development; the Middle East; Ukraine; immigration; the Indo-Pacific and economic security, as well as the Mediterranean, artificial intelligence and energy.
As for why it is looking at Africa, Italy said: "Relations with developing countries and emerging economies will be at the core. Engagement with Africa will be a key priority."
At the same time, artificial intelligence brings huge opportunities and risks, which may affect the geopolitical balance, and it is necessary to establish a governance mechanism.
In Zuo Xiying's view, the Ukrainian crisis will be the primary topic of this summit. Specifically, a major highlight is "how the West will show its solidarity in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis and how it will respond to Zelensky's series of demands."
Another major highlight is whether countries can reach an agreement on "using the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to provide assistance to Ukraine in the form of loans."
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors reportedly met last month to discuss the topic, and a formal decision may be made during the leaders' summit.
"The nearly $61 billion in aid from the United States may alleviate Ukraine's difficulties for a period of time. However, this aid is not achieved overnight and is unsustainable in the long run," Zuo Xiying said. So the G7 came up with the idea of using Russia's frozen assets.
After the Ukrainian crisis escalated in 2022, Western countries froze about $300 billion in Russian central bank assets. In recent months, Western countries have been discussing how to use these assets to aid Ukraine. The United States has determined that it is "in accordance with international law" to confiscate Russian assets and send them directly to Ukraine, while European countries such as France and Germany are concerned about the legality of this move and the dangers of the precedent it sets.
It is reported that the United States hopes to include relevant statements on the use of Russian assets in the joint statement of the G7 summit, and this proposal has been supported by Canada and the United Kingdom. France, Germany, Italy and Japan previously opposed plans such as the confiscation of Russian assets, but recently, prompted by the United States, expressed an open attitude towards the idea of lending to Ukraine.
However, some details remain to be clarified, including whether the loans will be issued by the United States alone or through a special mechanism set up by the G7.
Zuo Xiying noted that there is no consensus within the G7 on how to deal with Russia's frozen assets. For example, some countries are worried about undermining the monetary credit of the euro.
The summit may also touch on China issues. According to reports, the G7 plans to jointly warn Chinese small financial institutions about the financial transactions between them and Russia.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on June 11 that the normal economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia will not be disrupted or interfered with by any third party. China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.
On climate change, ministers responsible for climate, energy and environment affairs of the G7 member countries met in April and reached an agreement to gradually phase out coal-fired power plants without emission reduction measures by the mid-2030s, but some details still need to be clarified.
According to official introduction, after consensus, the results of the G7 leaders' meeting will be included in the declaration document, which is scheduled to be released on June 15.
The summit also plans to issue a communiqué on global infrastructure and investment partnerships. In addition, there will be a summary of the results of the "external conference" by the rotating presidency of Italy, covering Africa, the Mediterranean, artificial intelligence and energy.
Zuo Xiying expects that content related to the Ukrainian crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be included in the G7 declaration document.
Not long ago, the G7 leaders issued a joint statement on the situation in Gaza on June 3, which may lay the foundation for the summit declaration. The statement mentioned that they support the comprehensive agreement proposed by the United States, involving an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the release of all hostages, a substantial and sustained increase in humanitarian aid, a lasting end to the crisis, ensuring Israel's security interests and the safety of Gaza civilians, and supporting the peaceful path to the "two-state solution."
Ukrainian and US officials also reported that Biden and Zelensky will sign a bilateral security agreement at the G7 summit. The agreement will specify the specific responsibilities of the United States to provide long-term support to Ukraine, including training of the Ukrainian army, intelligence sharing and economic assistance.
In addition, the G7's use of Russia's frozen assets could raise serious legal issues and undermine the stability of the global financial system.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the West's confiscation of Russian assets, no matter in what form, is tantamount to theft, and Russia will respond in kind.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in April that Russia is studying and formulating countermeasures, and downgrading diplomatic relations is one of them. In addition, the countermeasures will also include taking action against Western countries' assets in Russia.
Zuo Xiying said that once the G7 approves the use of proceeds from Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine, Russia is expected to respond and its tensions with the West will further escalate.
