Second Look | Negotiation details may determine success or failure! What is the impact of Gantz's withdrawal on the Gaza ceasefire?

Release time:Jun 12, 2024 11:04 AM

With the recent adoption of a new Gaza ceasefire resolution by the UN Security Council, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that has lasted for more than eight months has seen a glimmer of hope for peace. Dreams are beautiful, but reality is still cruel. Negotiation details such as hostage exchanges between Israel and Hamas and the execution strength of both sides will inevitably affect the quality of this resolution. Earlier, Gantz, the leader of the main opposition National Unity Party, withdrew from the wartime cabinet, which made it more difficult to reach this resolution. Why did Gantz leave angrily at this time? What is the disagreement between him and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu? What is the impact of his departure on the Gaza ceasefire?

After US President Biden's new proposal was "ruthlessly rejected" by Netanyahu, the White House decisively stepped up pressure on Israel - recently personally submitted a Gaza ceasefire resolution and was voted through by the UN Security Council. This proposal is basically consistent with Biden's previous "three-step" plan, but the US's means of dealing with Israel are different. The US has realized that Israel remains indifferent just by relying on its earnest persuasion.

The adoption of the new resolution represents the general voice of the international community to a certain extent, but whether it can be truly implemented is still full of suspense. The details of the negotiations will directly affect its progress, and it will eventually die out because it remains on paper. After the resolution was passed, Israel's tone and attitude did not change drastically, and it remained consistent with the previous tone, emphasizing that "it will continue to use military means until its goals are achieved, that is, all detained persons are released and the military forces of Hamas are eliminated." The United States seems to be confident in its own plan. US Secretary of State Blinken, who is visiting Israel, said that Netanyahu has reiterated to him Israel's commitment to the Gaza ceasefire proposal.

For Hamas, the entanglement may also lie in the details. On the 11th, Hamas formally submitted its response to the new ceasefire proposal in Gaza to relevant mediators such as Qatar and Egypt. According to reports, this "response" proposed a new timetable for the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the realization of a permanent ceasefire. However, after receiving the response, the Israeli side clearly expressed dissatisfaction and began to "pass the buck". This is of course expected. Israel believes that Hamas has modified "all basic contents" of the proposal in its response and changed the outline of the proposal previously announced by Biden. The Israeli side believes that this means that Hamas has rejected the ceasefire proposal.

It is obvious that the battle between Israel and Hamas at the negotiation table will be protracted. It is said that negotiation is the art of compromise. The "angry departure" of Gantz, a member of Israel's wartime cabinet, not long ago undoubtedly added more suspense to the negotiations on the new resolution. US media analysis pointed out that Gantz's decision will exclude the moderate voices in the Netanyahu government, which may also reduce the probability of reaching an agreement to release the detained persons. Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, believes that Gantz has relatively more room for maneuver than Netanyahu in terms of making compromises when negotiating the hostage exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas. In the new "three-step" Gaza ceasefire resolution adopted by the Security Council, the first two stages involve the issue of hostage exchange. Without Gantz's wartime cabinet, whether to continue to insist on its "stubbornness" in many details of the negotiations or to make "compromises" that are not satisfactory to each other but can be barely accepted will directly affect the effectiveness and role of this agreement. Of course, it also depends on the pressure exerted by the United States on Israel.

Zhang Chuchu said that it was not surprising that Gantz insisted on withdrawing from the wartime cabinet. This was mainly due to Gantz's embarrassing situation since the outbreak of this round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the one hand, he is Netanyahu's opponent at the political level, but on the other hand, he is a member of the wartime cabinet. In this way, it is difficult for him to convince Israeli voters when criticizing Netanyahu's policies, and he himself, as one of the decision-makers, cannot escape criticism. Secondly, Netanyahu is under increasing international pressure, which has an increasing impact on Gantz. In order to establish a better image at home and abroad, he must cut ties with Netanyahu. Some public opinion believes that Gantz's joining helped stabilize the Netanyahu government. In the eyes of the international community, especially the West, the former Israeli Defense Minister can play a "mitigating role". Now, his withdrawal may increase the domestic and foreign pressures faced by Netanyahu.

In addition, as Netanyahu's political opponent, concerns about his approval rating are also one of the factors that led Gantz to leave. According to US media reports, recent Israeli polls show that the approval ratings of the two are 42% and 34% respectively. Although Gantz's approval rating often exceeds that of Netanyahu, the latter's recent actions to increase his approval rating have caused Gantz's concerns. "Four hostages were rescued, and 274 people died in the attack." Israel's special operations in central Gaza on the 8th caused great controversy and anger, and was denounced as a "massacre" by the West. Despite the heavy humanitarian cost, this hostage rescue action may still win the support of voters.

Zhang Chuchu said Netanyahu hopes to use this action to show the Israelis that hostages can be rescued without negotiations and by continuing the offensive, thereby establishing his political achievements. Gantz is worried that the number of Israeli voters who oppose Netanyahu will decline, and by leaving the wartime cabinet, he hopes that the political mobilization to call for early elections will have a greater effect.

Although the Israeli wartime cabinet has tried to show its unprecedented unity since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in fact, there have always been many differences between Gantz and Netanyahu. For example, the two have different attitudes on the issue of military service exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews. Zhang Chuchu said that the biggest difference between the two is their attitude towards the United States. Compared with Netanyahu who often turns a deaf ear to the US's instructions, Gantz is more "obedient" to the United States. Gantz took advantage of the White House's dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's performance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and actively "showed his loyalty" to the White House, hoping to gain US support.

US media reports pointed out that since Gantz's party is not part of the ruling coalition, his withdrawal will not pose a direct danger to the Netanyahu government. Zhang Chuchu said that if Gantz withdraws, Netanyahu will inevitably rely more on the extreme right-wing forces and adopt a tougher policy, which runs counter to Biden's desire to successfully mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before the election. The intensification of the conflict between Biden and Netanyahu is also a political opportunity for Gantz.

It is worth noting that when Gantz withdrew from the wartime cabinet, he repeatedly emphasized in many public occasions that "the war will not stop here and may even continue for years." Zhang Chuchu said that this shows that Gantz and Netanyahu have limited fundamental differences on the general direction of Israel's treatment of Hamas, and the conflict between the two sides is more of a power struggle.

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