Will young people's jobs be "taken away" by old people?

Grandpa is the same age as the Republic and is 75 years old this year. For more than 40 years, he has been making a living by maintaining the grocery store at the entrance of the village. Until the village rezoned the land a few days ago, he had to move the grocery store to the town. The new store did very little business, like an old tree being transplanted, and Grandpa couldn't hide his disappointment.

"How about closing the business? At your age, it's time to retire." Relatives advised him. He shook his head. The word "retirement" does not exist in the dictionary of this gentle but stubborn old man.

The same goes for many "silver-haired workers". Although they have exceeded the legal retirement age and are no longer part of the working-age population, they continue to work for various reasons.

These people choose to re-employ. In the eyes of experts, they have "insufficient protection" and "need support". In the eyes of netizens, they are "competing with young people for jobs." Recently, everyone has started fighting again.

Both seem to make sense at first glance. But let me tell you, it's not that simple.

Netizens worry that those who may come to grab jobs from young people are certainly not old people like my grandfather.

In addition to running small businesses, they also appear on construction sites, factories, and in the "three guarantees" positions of security, cleaning, and green protection... Some people work part-time for a long time, and some come out to make a living after retirement, with low pensions , every extra point you can earn is one point.

There is also a category of elderly people who are either professional and technical personnel or managers who are still re-employed by their original units after retirement. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has publicly stated, “We have always attached great importance to supporting the role of retired professional and technical personnel, and actively take various measures to encourage and support them to continue to use their advantages and expertise to contribute experience and talents to economic and social development while maintaining physical and mental health.”

Are the re-employment of the elderly competing with young people for jobs? Public opinion was arousing, so I went to see Peng Xizhe, dean of the Institute of Aging at Fudan University and director of the Center for Population and Development Policy Research at Fudan University. He told me that, to a large extent, this was a false proposition.

"Looking at different levels, the re-employment of the elderly has different impacts on the segmented labor market." Peng Xizhe said that a large number of middle-aged and elderly laborers are employed in traditional manufacturing and service industries, while young people are more engaged in IT, finance, Science and technology innovation and other emerging industries. Although the two sides also overlap in some industries, the vast majority of jobs for the elderly and jobs for young people do not constitute a competitive relationship.

With the arrival of a new round of "retirement wave", more than 20 million people are retiring every year. At the same time, about 15 million new people are added to the labor force every year. "Just from the perspective of the advancement and retreat of the labor market, the elderly not only do not occupy the positions of young people, but also free up more positions."

Since the labor supply is decreasing, why is it still so difficult for college students to find jobs?

That's because the job market structure is not static, but is constantly adjusted with technological development and industrial changes, causing a large number of jobs to disappear, and some of the jobs that have not disappeared also face a mismatch between people and jobs.

Zeng Xiangquan, director of the China Employment Research Institute at Renmin University of China, pointed out that in the long run, the structural contradictions of "employment difficulties" and "recruitment difficulties" are more profound than the overall contradictions.

In the final analysis, the employment problems of young people and the employment problems of the elderly have different causes and solutions. Confusing the two or even opposing them can easily obscure many more important issues.

Do you still want to work after retirement? Ask today’s young people and nine out of ten they will say no.

However, 51job's "2022 Elderly Group Retirement and Re-Employment Survey Report" shows that 68% of the elderly have a strong desire to re-employ after retirement. Among them, 46.7% seek personal and social value; 34.3% use re-employment to subsidize their families and increase their income to meet higher-level consumption needs; 19% hope to use their skills and continue to pursue career development.

If you shift your gaze slightly, you will find that the whole world is in the same situation. According to a recent survey by Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, most Americans view retirement as a slow transition away from full-time employment rather than a definite date when they suddenly stop working and leave the workforce.

"Younger workers tend to be more optimistic about retiring early. But as people get closer to retirement age, many people will expect to retire later due to multiple factors." Katherine Colin, CEO of the Pan American Retirement Research Center Sen thinks.

As people's situations change, so do their ideas. Today's young people may not understand the social and self-actualization needs of the elderly, so it is better to calculate the account from an economic perspective.

Peng Xizhe's team has calculated that the average Chinese income exceeds consumption from the age of 21, until the average retirement age of 56, consumption begins to exceed income. In other words, there are only 35 years in a person's life when income exceeds consumption. Based on the national average life expectancy of 78 years, the remaining 40-odd years will be spent in the role of consumers rather than producers, which is a challenge for individuals and society.

"It is not so much re-employment of the elderly as it is social and economic participation." Professor Peng gave an example. The elderly can help their children at home, help others in society, and can also help with economic activities in the market. In any case, it is also their right to allow the elderly to have the opportunity to participate in social and economic activities.

It is not easy for the elderly with low educational level and no skills to participate in social and economic activities.

I talked about this topic with a machine factory HR. She complained about the lack of stability of young people and wanted to run away after working for only two days. At the same time, she said that older workers are experienced and willing to work. Unfortunately, they cannot pay social security if they re-employ after retirement.

I said, wouldn’t the cost to the factory be lighter if we don’t pay social security? They should be more willing to hire these younger people.

She sighed: What should I do if I get injured at work? Very troublesome.

In theory, many of the obstacles that older people face in re-employment can be solved by delaying retirement.

For example, social security is insufficient. If the retirement age is postponed, elderly people who are willing to work can be included in the working-age population and can sign labor contracts instead of labor contracts with employers. Five social insurances and one fund will be guaranteed.

Another example is the lack of smooth employment channels. In the past, there was the "4050 Reemployment Project". In the future, will it also be able to provide job introduction, vocational skills training and innovation and entrepreneurship guidance services for the "6070"?

But these are empty words. The reality is that, in the face of widespread controversy and opposition, the road map for delayed retirement has not been announced for a long time.

Professor Peng told me that the team’s research found that the strongest opposition to delayed retirement is mostly young people in the eastern coastal areas. This is different from the situation 10 years ago - 10 years ago, those who did not want to delay retirement were mainly middle-aged people in their 50s, but now it is the younger generation.

my country's pension system adopts a pay-as-you-go system, that is, the basic pension of retirees is paid through the contributions of working personnel. From a rational perspective, delaying retirement can reduce the intergenerational support burden of working people. But why are the loudest voices of opposition now coming from this group of young people who are still far away from retirement and have the opportunity to reduce their support burden?

"Because the aging rate is too fast, social changes are too fast, and our top-level policy design and concepts are still lagging behind." Professor Peng lamented. Ultimately, delaying retirement is a complex public policy issue. If we only talk about delayed retirement without talking about a series of supporting reform measures such as the social welfare system, pension insurance system, employment, taxation, medical care, etc., how easy will it be for everyone to change their minds?

Having said that, it is normal for social attitudes to change slowly. The top-level design and institutional arrangements are clear, and the coordination and matching of various policies are high, and people will naturally make the right choices.

From structural contradictions in employment to population aging, the more important the problem, the less likely it is that there will be easy and happy solutions. But the effectiveness of any reform ultimately comes down to the people’s personal feelings. Not long ago, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over a symposium with enterprises and experts. One of the themes of his speech was "enhancing the people's sense of gain from reform."