The "turn to the right" of the political spectrum has become a fact, and the European Union has experienced a turbulent night. In-depth | European Parliament election voting ends

On the evening of June 9, local time, the voting for the European Parliament election, which occurs every five years, came to an end. According to reports, preliminary vote counting results show that the center-right party and the center-left party have retained their positions in the top two groups of the European Parliament, but the significant progress made by the far-right party has not only failed the leaders of the European "axis", but also caused Macron dissolved the National Assembly, the Belgian Prime Minister announced his resignation, and a series of chain reactions.

Public opinion believes that this is a night of dramatic turmoil in the EU's political situation. The "rightward turn" of the European political spectrum is no longer a trend, but an indisputable fact.

Voting in 27 EU countries started on the 6th for this election, with a total of 720 members elected for a five-year term. The number of seats held by each country is distributed according to population: Germany, France, and Italy have 96 seats, 81 seats, and 76 seats respectively, while Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta, which have smaller populations, only have 6 seats each.

As the preliminary results came out on the 9th, the winners and losers became clearer, and the strong performance of far-right parties in several major countries was particularly striking.

In France, a founding member of the European Union, according to exit polls on the evening of the 9th, the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen received 31.7% of the votes, the highest among all parties, more than twice the vote share of the ruling Ennahda Party led by Emmanuel Macron. Some commentators said that France will send the largest delegation of far-right parliamentarians among the 27 EU countries to Brussels.

In Germany, the most populous country in the European Union, the party landscape has undergone the biggest change in recent decades. According to preliminary statistics, the largest opposition party, the Union Party, won first place with 30.3% of the vote, and the far-right Alternative for Germany party ranked second with 15.6% of the vote, up from 11% in 2019. Under double suppression, the Social Democratic Party led by Scholz achieved its worst performance in history, with a vote rate of only 14.1%.

In Italy, the far-right party Brothers of Italy, led by Prime Minister Meroni, made significant progress with 28% of the vote, consolidating its position as the "kingmaker" in Brussels.

In the Netherlands, the Liberal Party led by Wilders, known as the "Dutch Trump", is expected to achieve second best results in the country, in contrast to the lack of gains in the last election.

In Belgium, the far-right Flemish Interest Party ranked second in the country in votes in the "three-in-one" election of federal, regional and European parliaments, surpassing Prime Minister De Croo's Dutch-speaking Open Democratic Party. De Croo subsequently announced his resignation.

Looking at the EU, some European public opinion said that pro-European centrist parties still dominate the European Parliament - the center-right European People's Party is expected to increase its seats from 176 in the previous session to 189, maintaining its position as the largest party group; the center-left Social Democratic Party is expected to win 135 seats, down 4 seats, and still be the second largest party group; the centrist European Renewal Party won 83 seats, down 19 seats, barely retaining its position as the third largest party group. However, anti-establishment sentiment is still spreading, and far-right parties continue to rise, and are expected to win 150 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament.

"The results of this election were not too surprising," said Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University. Although the far-right forces continue to grow, there have been no subversive changes predicted by some public opinion, and the European Parliament is still controlled by mainstream parties. This is related to factors such as the center-right parties leaning to the right to attract votes from the far-right parties and the mainstream parties blocking the far-right parties.

However, “it is difficult to say that centrist parties still dominate elections.” Cui Hongjian pointed out that the current definition of centrist parties in Europe is different from the previous definition. The political positions and policy propositions of center-right parties such as the European People's Party have become increasingly conservative and right-leaning. The only centrist party in the strict sense is Macron’s Renew Europe group. But this time, it suffered a huge defeat in the election and its number of seats shrank significantly. The same goes for the Green Party caucus.

From this perspective, "With the growing power of right-wing parties, the 'rightward turn' of the European political spectrum is no longer a trend, but an established fact." Cui Hongjian pointed out that behind the scenes, this is a reflection of the current political changes in Europe. The continued growth of the far-right forces reflects that in the face of the deteriorating external environment and internal economic and social challenges, the mainstream political parties are unable to respond effectively, causing public dissatisfaction. Under the influence of the far-right parties, mainstream public opinion has become increasingly conservative, thus forming a vicious circle.

On the evening of the 9th, as the latest exit poll results came out, the main candidate of the French far-right party National Rally, the 28-year-old Bardella, delivered a victory speech in Paris, with a presidential tone, and the opening words were "My dear compatriots". He said that the French people have made their verdict... This is the first day of the "post-Macron era".

Some commentators say that unknowingly, the National Alliance has transformed from a pure opposition party in French politics to an important role in preparing for governance.

Less than an hour later, Macron delivered a national speech, announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly and holding new National Assembly elections on June 30 and July 7, which caused a stir in France and abroad.

Some public opinion pointed out that this was a "gamble" by Macron, and that the Renaissance Party he led had no advantage in public opinion and might suffer losses in the new election. When Macron announced the news to the crowd at the party headquarters in Paris, some supporters shouted "Oh, no". Supporters of the National Rally cheered.

Looking back at history, the last time a French president dissolved the National Assembly was in 1997. The then conservative President Chirac took a risk and not only lost his party's parliamentary majority, but was also forced to quarrel with the left-wing government led by Prime Minister Jospin. "Left and right coexist" is regarded by some as a major "own error" in modern French politics.

Why is Macron “gamble” today? Will he make the same mistake again?

Cui Hongjian pointed out that Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly and re-election will not affect his completion of the remaining three years of his term as president. However, whether the ruling party occupies a majority position in the National Assembly will be of great significance to Macron's future governance.

Previously, the ruling party led by Macron did not win an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly, which greatly constrained it in appointing the prime minister, forming a government, and legislative reform.

Now, against the backdrop of a disastrous defeat in the European Parliament elections, Macron suddenly brought forward the National Assembly elections. Cui Hongjian believes that this move is more of a strategic intervention, with possible considerations of buffering and response.

The buffer lies in the hope that new elections will offset some of the negative impact and shock brought about by the European Parliament elections and prove that the ruling party and traditional parties still have a leading advantage at the domestic level in France.

The response is to hope that a new government will be formed through new elections, which will to some extent respond to voters' demands for change, convey the ruling party's confidence in its ability to make changes, and leave some legacy for its own party and the French party landscape.

However, some commentators say that so far, France’s two-round electoral system has always prevented far-right parties from taking power. Macron may feel that he has “nothing to lose”, so rather than face obstacles and swallow his defeat during the remaining three years of the National Assembly’s term, he might as well “take a gamble”. But French voters are now increasingly unwilling to support the "anti-Le Pen front", which may make the next election full of uncertainty.

With a strong performance in this election, far-right parties may become important players in future European Parliament policies ranging from immigration to security to climate change, and may also have a say in personnel appointments at the European Commission. What impact will this have?

Some European and American public opinion is concerned that the continued rise of far-right forces in the European Parliament may make the EU's future legislative process more difficult and paralyze the decision-making mechanism.

“The European Parliament election is a barometer of the European political ecology, and its impact on EU policies may not be clearer until the leaders of the EU’s main institutions are elected.” Cui Hongjian looked at the follow-up agenda of the European Parliament, mainstream parties and far-right parties. Analyze from the perspective of relationships among others.

Next, one of the first tasks of the new members of the European Parliament will be to elect a new Speaker of the European Parliament and new leadership of the main EU institutions, including the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, etc. A series of personnel changes will have an impact on the future policy direction of the EU.

"This will be a process of mainstream parties reaching a deal with the extreme right-wing parties." Cui Hongjian pointed out that, for example, as a candidate of the European People's Party, von der Leyen hopes to be re-elected as President of the European Commission. But in order to gain majority support in the European Parliament, she may need to cooperate with the extreme right-wing parties. If mainstream parties cooperate more closely with the extreme right-wing parties, it may lead to more conservative and inward-looking EU policies, and even have a subversive impact in certain areas of some countries.

As the overall political ecology in Europe turns right and national sovereignty awareness rises, Cui Hongjian predicts that governments may place more emphasis on "national interests first" on some policy issues. Whether some mainstream political parties can consolidate their territory and whether right-wing and extreme right-wing parties will further merge will become key factors affecting political changes in Europe.